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Will the Benettons use Alitalia to fly in from the cold?

FILE PHOTO: An Alitalia Airbus A320 airplane approaches to land at Fiumicino airport in Rome
FILE PHOTO: An Alitalia Airbus A320-200 airplane comes in to land at Fiumicino airport in Rome, Italy October 24, 2018. REUTERS/Max Rossi/File Photo

April 19, 2019

By Giselda Vagnoni, Francesca Landini and Stefano Bernabei

MILAN/ROME (Reuters) – Italian transport group Atlantia could join a rescue of loss-making flag carrier Alitalia to try to win favor with the government and secure the future of its own domestic business following a deadly bridge collapse last year, sources said.

Atlantia, controlled by the Benetton family, faces the loss of its entire national motorway concession in a bitter dispute with the government, which erupted after last year’s disaster on its toll network killed 43 people.

The government blamed Atlantia for the tragedy, saying it had failed to adequately maintain the aging bridge, and vowed to revoke the concession, worth 58 percent of group revenue.

However, sources familiar with the matter said Atlantia could mend relations with the government by joining a rescue of Alitalia, which Rome is desperate to save, and possibly be rewarded with a reprieve on its motorway concession.

Atlantia has publicly scoffed at the idea, but sources say it stands ready if Rome signals a quid pro quo is possible. The government has not given such a signal but a political source says it may do if it sees Atlantia as key to saving Alitalia.

Atlantia, which also runs Alitalia’s main airport hub in Rome, has denied it is in talks to join a rescue consortium, saying its hands are already full with complex business challenges, including the fate of its motorway concession.

However, a source familiar with the flag-carrier’s thinking said Alitalia expected Atlantia to sign up to a rescue as early as this month. The source did not elaborate.

Atlantia declined to comment for this article.

Another potential investor in the rescue bid, state-owned rail group Ferrovie dello Stato, which has had initial talks with Atlantia, also believes the Benetton-controlled group could yet be tempted to join, said a source familiar with those talks.

“Atlantia’s door is not closed … it is now up to the government to take the lead in the talks,” said a second source familiar with Alitalia’s thinking.

Alitalia, put into special administration in 2017 after workers rejected a previous rescue plan, needs to find investors ready to inject fresh funds by the end of April, in advance of an end-June repayment deadline for a state bridging loan of 900 million euros. That loan, however, may be rolled over, daily Il Sole 24 Ore said.

The government, formed by the right-wing League party and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, is keen to save the airline because it wants to avoid mass layoffs at Alitalia, which has around 11,600 employees.

However, political sources said it was still unclear whether the ruling coalition, especially the 5-Star party, would be ready to make such a peace with Atlantia. The party was the most critical of Atlantia after the bridge collapse.

“For 5-Star even the hypothesis of freezing the procedure for revoking the concession is not politically sustainable,” said a senior 5-Star source.

The prime minister’s office did not reply to a request for comment.

CLOCK TICKING

Ferrovie and Delta Air Lines are looking to invest in Alitalia but they still need to find other investors to stump up another 400 million euros for a rescue worth a total of around 1 billion euros, sources close to the talks said.

Ferrovie and its adviser, investment bank Mediobanca, have discreetly sounded out Atlantia after being turned down by a string of other companies.

Reuters was unable to immediately reach a Delta spokeswoman.

Atlantia has been burned by Alitalia once before, having lost 190 million euros when it participated in a rescue in 2008.

“We have many open fronts, we can’t afford to open a further, particularly complex one,” Atlantia CEO Giovanni Castellucci said on Thursday, speaking to shareholders.

In addition to the bridge disaster, Castellucci said he was also dealing with the government over its lengthy approvals process which was blocking 4.9 billion euros in group projects.

Some financial analysts say a quid pro quo would make sense.

“We reckon a possible agreement over Alitalia would be positive for Atlantia, because it would lead to a rapprochement with the government,” broker Equita said in a note this week.

For now, Ferrovie is ready to take a 30 percent stake in Alitalia, Delta Air Lines would invest 100 million euros for a stake of 10-15 percent and another 15 percent would probably go to the Italian treasury, sources familiar with the matter say.

But there is still a question mark over who would take the remaining 40-45 percent of the carrier.

British budget airline easyJet walked away from talks with Ferrovie last month, state-controlled defense group Leonardo and postal operator Poste Italiane said they were not interested in the deal.

If Ferrovie and Delta cannot find co-investors, Rome would face its least favored option: a takeover by German carrier Lufthansa which has said it would only rescue Alitalia if the government were first to carry out major job cuts.

(Additional reporting by Giuseppe Fonte; editing by Mark Bendeich and David Evans)

Source: OANN

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Lawmakers push to allow banks to work with marijuana companies

LAS VEGAS -- Despite being legal in a handful of states, including Nevada, many cannabis companies struggle to find banks and financial institutions that are willing to take a gamble on an industry reliant on a product that remains on the federal government's blacklist.

“We have tried to go to a couple of different banks and pretty much no one will touch us,” said Jillian Nelson, vice president of operations at Evergreen Organix, a marijuana company in Las Vegas. “As soon as they find out that we are a marijuana company, they want nothing to do with us.”

While 33 states have legalized marijuana in some form, it is still illegal at the federal level – making banks and financial institutions, like credit unions, wary of doing business with cannabis companies.

IS POT THE FUTURE OF THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY?

“You’re not going to get the larger banks -- the Chase [s], the Bank of America [s] -- typically to work with those businesses because of the fear of the regulators coming in and clamping down against this process,” IRC Wealth CEO David Ragland told Fox News, adding that smaller banks, however, will still work with these businesses.

Currently, there are 438 banks and 113 credit unions that actively work with marijuana-related businesses in the United States, according to the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

A bill was introduced in Nevada on Monday that hopes to create a process to license banks and credit unions serving marijuana dispensaries in order to offer dispensaries a safe way to invest in the economy. Under the proposed bill, the licensed banks and credit unions would not be required to be insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, according to The Associated Press.

Legislation introduced in Washington D.C. earlier this month by Democrats Ed Perlmutter of Colorado and Denny Heck of Washington aims to offer banks, including ancillary businesses, protections against sanctions when associating with marijuana companies. The bill would also adjust tribal language and change the definition of cannabis business.

Under the current law, financial institutions could face criminal prosecution for working with marijuana companies as it is still viewed as a Schedule I drug at the federal level.

The SAFE Banking Act would offer protections for banks and financial institutions against sanctions for working with Marijuana companies.

The SAFE Banking Act would offer protections for banks and financial institutions against sanctions for working with Marijuana companies.

“Once you decide you're going to have these licensed businesses they should have access to banking services,” Jonathan Caulkins, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University and adjunct researcher with RAND’s Drug Policy Research Center said. “There is an argument be made for not allowing a for-profit industry, there's an argument that only nonprofits should be allowed to supply cannabis or just government. But, once you allow industry to occupy this space, they should have access to banking services.”

Without access to banks, marijuana companies are forced to operate mainly in cash -- making the businesses prime targets for crime.

JELLY BELLY CREATOR INTRODUCES CBD-INFUSED JELLY BEANS

“We do have to retain the services of armed guards for cash pickups transports and distributions because transporting that sort of money and large sums isn't safe for really anybody nowadays,” Nelson told Fox News, adding that the bill could be “life-changing for everybody in the cannabis industry.”

The whole Nevada delegation has backed the bill, with Republican Rep. Mark Amodei being the last to signal his support. While he believes there still needs to be additional oversight, like granting local and federal government access to the financial records, he acknowledged, “they shouldn’t be dealing with a whole bunch of cash floating around, like they are now,” according to the Nevada Independent.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

But Caulkins believes “legalizing banking services is a sensible intermediary” during a “chaotic” situation as states continue to adopt pro-cannabis policies that contradict federal law.

“It really does not make sense to have state legal, illegal federally,” he said. “But this is a good band-aid to help the bridge or transition time be less chaotic.”

The SAFE Banking Act, which has more than 130 bipartisan co-sponsors, has been pushed since 2013 – but with a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, Perlmutter believes the odds of passing legislation is much higher than in the past.

“We’ve got a lot better chances than we’ve ever had before, in part, because Democrats took the House and I think the fact that we are at 47 states that have some level of marijuana use,” Perlmutter told the Nevada Independent earlier this month. “Prohibition is over. We need to get the cash off the streets.”

If the bill does eventually become law, the already thriving industry could see even more dramatic growth similar to how the legalization gambling changed Las Vegas and the end of prohibition catalyzed the alcohol industry, Ragland said.

The first markup hearing for the bill in the House Financial Services Committee is on March 26.

Source: Fox News Politics

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Ultimate Compilation: Dems and MSM Talking Heads Freak Out Over AG Barr’s Impending Spying Investigation

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Source: InfoWars

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Chinese social media star vanishes as Internet fame soars

China’s latest Internet sensation, The Washington Post reported, has been called the Vagrant Master and Master Shen on the Chinese Internet.

His real name is Shen Wei; he is 52 and a vagabond.

And now, as his social media star has risen, he has vanished. The Post said he's been offline for more than a week, after being spotted guided into a white Mercedes and declaring that he was going "to seek refuge."

TRISTA SUTTER SAYS THERE WAS TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON COLTON UNDERWOOD’S VIRGINITY ON ‘THE BACHELOR’: ‘IT GOT OLD’

The Post reported that his every word has been recorded by live-streamers, shared across social media in the form of 15-to-30-second videos and closely watched and analyzed by millions.

He wasn’t a fan of his fame.

“I hate the Internet,” Shen said. “The Internet has brought me nothing but trouble.”

Shen was found on social media by an audience a bit too shocked someone like him was capable of quoting Aristotle, Confucius and Dante.

He was homeless and appeared with uncombed hair, soiled clothes and unwashed beard.

He became an antihero to an audience attempting to climb social and economic ladders.

Touched by fame, Shen quickly rejected the spotlight.

“I know people are treating me like a monkey,” Shen said. “Nobody came to see me with a pure heart.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

China has almost 830 million Internet users, and more than 70 percent of them now use short-video or live-streaming applications.

By 2020, the short-video sector is expected to exceed $5 billion in market value.

So alas, for now, in the world’s second-largest economy, Shen will no longer contribute.

Source: Fox News World

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Nadler Attacks Attorney General Barr Over ‘Spying’ Claims: ‘Complete and Total Nonsense.’

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Source: InfoWars

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Catholic priest accused of groping woman during last rites

A Roman Catholic priest has been arrested on a misdemeanor assault charge after he was accused of groping a woman in home hospice care while giving her last rites.

The Rev. Gerold Langsch, of Austin, was arrested Thursday and charged with assault by contact stemming from the October encounter. The 75-year-old priest is free on $15,000 bond. If convicted, he could be sentenced to a year in jail and fined up to $4,000.

Police contend in the arrest affidavit that the woman was in hospice care for complications from diabetes when Lansch went to her home to administer the sacrament of anointing the sick, a sacrament of absolution. The woman, who is still alive, reported that he fondled her breast and tried to grope her inside her adult diaper but failed.

Source: Fox News National

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BMW’s UK Mini plant shuts for four weeks despite Brexit delay

FILE PHOTO: A Mini badge is seen at the car making plant in Oxford
FILE PHOTO: A Mini badge is seen at the car making plant in Oxford, western England July 9, 2012. REUTERS/Eddie Keogh/File Photo

April 1, 2019

By Costas Pitas

LONDON (Reuters) – BMW’s Mini plant in Britain closes for four weeks from Monday in a move planned over a half year ago to help the company deal with any disruption resulting from Brexit, which has since been delayed.

The German carmaker, which builds just over 15 percent of Britain’s 1.5 million cars, moved its annual summertime shutdown to April to “minimise the risk of any possible short-term parts-supply disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit.”

But Britain’s departure from the EU has now been pushed back from March 29 until at least April 12 or potentially much later, scuppering the timing of major contingency plans for some carmakers.

Shutdowns are organized far in advance so employee holidays can be scheduled and suppliers can adjust volumes, making them hard to move.

“This is what our company and our workforce have planned for over many months and it is fixed into our business planning,” said a BMW spokesman.

It represents the latest headache for Britain’s once roaring car sector which had been on track for record production but since 2017 has posted sharp falls in sales, output and investment.

The overwhelmingly foreign-owned industry has become increasingly incredulous as a stable and attractive investment environment descends into one of its deepest political crises, risking the free and frictionless trade the sector relies on.

BMW’s Rolls-Royce factory in Goodwood will close for two weeks whilst Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) three car plants and engine facility and Honda’s Swindon facility will also shut for a few days this month as part of Brexit contingencies.

It has been a turbulent few months for the sector after Nissan canceled plans to build a new sport utility vehicle at its English Sunderland plant and Honda said it would shutter its plant in 2021 in the biggest blow to the sector for years.

Toyota provided a rare boost when it announced plans to build cars for Suzuki at its English car plant.

BMW, which is also closing its central English Hams Hall engine facility and Swindon press shop and sub-assembly site for four weeks, has said it could move some engine and Mini output out of Britain if there is not an orderly Brexit.

Carmakers face a number of risks if there is a disorderly Brexit, including delays to the supply of ports and finished models, new customs bureaucracy, the need to recertify models and an up to 10 percent tariff on finished vehicles.

A series of investment decisions are coming up, including whether Peugeot’s parent company PSA will keep its Ellesmere Port plant open and if it will build electric vans at its southern English Luton facility.

Petrochemicals firm Ineos is also due to choose the location for its off-roader whilst a decision is pending on whether JLR will build electric vehicles in its home market.

(Editing by Guy Faulconbridge)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

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According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

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