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Several ECB policymakers doubt projected growth rebound: sources

FILE PHOTO: Headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) are illuminated with a giant euro sign at the start of the
FILE PHOTO: The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) are illuminated with a giant euro sign at the start of the "Luminale, light and building" event in Frankfurt, Germany, March 12, 2016. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

April 16, 2019

By Balazs Koranyi

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Several European Central Bank policymakers think the bank’s economic projections are too optimistic as growth weakness in China and trade tensions linger, four sources with direct knowledge of discussions said.

A “significant minority” of rate-setters in last week’s policy meeting expressed doubt that a long projected growth recovery is coming in the second half of the year and some even questioned the accuracy of the ECB’s projection models, given their long history of downward revisions, the sources said.

With the ECB using the these projections as a key input into policy decision, more cuts in growth and inflation forecasts would raise the chance that the bank’s first post crisis rate, now seen next year, is delayed even longer.

An ECB spokesman declined to comment.

The central bank has so far maintained that many of the factors holding down growth are temporary, so the economy would rebound in the second half, after waning exports and eroding confidence nearly dragged Germany into recession late last year.

ECB President Mario Draghi said over the weekend there were signs that these factors were waning, even if political uncertainty loomed large.

But some of his fellow Governing Council members were not as confident and argued that the growth hurdles were far from temporary, so there was no reason to project any significant rebound, the sources said.

While Germany’s vast car sector did take a one-off hit from an adjustment to new emissions-testing methods, more permanent factors could include shifting consumption habits, a move away from diesel and weak Chinese demand, some governors argued, according to the sources.

WEAK GROWTH, TRADE WARS

The policymakers added that weak global trade growth also appears to be more permanent, trade wars now look to be the norm rather than the exception and even if Chinese growth looks to be stabilizing, demand from Beijing is unlikely to surge.

Some governors went as far as saying that the ECB’s forecasting methodology may need to be reviewed since projections are persistently too optimistic and are regularly cut quarter after quarter, the sources said.

The ECB now sees 2019 growth at 1.1 percent but projected 1.7 percent just three months ago.

While others are also prone to forecasting errors, the U.S. Federal Reserve does not publish a single projection, even if individual governors make their forecasts public. And while Fed governors also erred on growth recently, their projections on inflation have been relatively solid.

Some ECB policymakers thought there may be an inherent bias in the bank’s forecasts as they always show inflation on an upward slope, moving toward the ECB’s target and growth returning to trend.

The sources added that ECB President Mario Draghi appeared open to discussing the concerns but showed little interest in doing a deep dive into forecasting methodology just month before the end of his term.

Others told the colleagues at the policy meeting that the key reason for the forecast misses was simply an incorrect assessment of slack in the labor market, the sources said.

The euro zone has created around 10 million jobs since the worst days of its debt crisis and more people are at work than ever before.

Yet inflation is not moving up the way record high employment would warrant, suggesting that the labor market is more flexible than in the past and the natural rate of unemployment has declined.

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

Source: OANN

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Leader of Turkish opposition party safe after crowd attacks him

FILE PHOTO: Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), greets his supporters during a rally for the upcoming local elections, in Istanbul
FILE PHOTO: Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), greets his supporters during a rally for the upcoming local elections, in Istanbul, Turkey March 24, 2019. REUTERS/Huseyin Aldemir/File Photo

April 21, 2019

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – The leader of Turkey’s main opposition party was attacked by several shouting men on Sunday before security guards led him safely away from a crowd in Ankara on Sunday, according to the party and video footage of the incident.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP) that pulled off upset local election victories on March 31, had been attending a funeral for a Turkish soldier killed in clashes with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

Video of the incident showed Kilicdaroglu hit on the head at least twice as a clutch of security guards attempted to keep dozens of shouting and fist-pumping men away. He managed to leave the scene and enter a nearby house, according to broadcaster NTV and Demiroren News Agency.

A crowd then gathered outside the house chanting “PKK out”, NTV said.

“In the incident, we were all scattered. Kemal Kilicdaroglu is alright. He is taken to a safe place,” Levent Gok, CHP member of parliament from Ankara, told Haberturk TV. “We must keep calm. Kilicdaroglu will make a statement.”

The CHP’s mayoral candidates in Ankara and Istanbul defeated those from President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party, according to initial results and a series of recounts of the elections three weeks ago.

The AK Party has submitted two petitions to cancel and re-run the vote in Istanbul, citing what is says are irregularities and illegal votes.

(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Alison Williams)

Source: OANN

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Volkswagen warns on jobs as margins slip, electric plans accelerate

Herbert Diess, CEO of German carmaker Volkswagen addresses the media during the annual news conference at the Volkswagen plant in Wolfsburg
Herbert Diess, CEO of German carmaker Volkswagen addresses the media during the annual news conference at the Volkswagen plant in Wolfsburg, Germany March 12, 2019. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer

March 12, 2019

By Edward Taylor

WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) – Volkswagen will cut jobs as it speeds up the rollout of less labor-intensive electric cars and will review its sprawling portfolio of brands as it battles to reverse a slide in profit margins, the German carmaker said on Tuesday.

The company said it planned to launch almost 70 new electric models by 2028, aiming to put itself at the forefront of the industry’s shift to zero-emissions driving following the 2015 scandal over its cheating of U.S. diesel emissions tests.

However, it said investments to retool factories, as well as adverse currency moves and a sales slowdown triggered by new emissions certification tests, led to a fall in operating margins at its VW, Skoda, Audi and Porsche marques last year.

The margin at its top-selling VW brand slipped to 3.8 percent in 2018 from 4.2 percent in 2017.

“Despite all the rhetoric, the opportunity to reduce an historically high fixed cost base, 2018 actually saw a new high,” Evercore ISI analysts said. “This is unacceptable.”

At 1550 GMT, Volkswagen shares were down 2.1 percent at 143.54 euros.

The group said it would respond by aligning management pay and bonuses more closely with profitability, cutting manufacturing complexity and reducing headcount by an unspecified amount.

Chief Executive Herbert Diess also said it is reviewing its portfolio of brands, which also include Lamborghini, Ducati and Bentley, and whether to divest some non-core businesses.

He said there might be an update in the second half of this year, but added he was not thinking about selling Skoda or Porsche, as they used vehicle platforms of the wider group.

Diess said it had not been possible to strike a deal with unions to raise profitability at the VW brand in 2018. The group is now focusing on cost cuts at the VW brand and Audi, it said.

“Labor cost is a big concern for us. It’s part of the dispute we are having currently with the union. Our plan was to improve productivity and decrease costs which didn’t work out in 2018,” Diess told analysts after the company’s annual results.

Volkswagen is preparing to roll out a new compact electric car, known as the ID, in 2020 as part of a drive that it expects will see it building 22 million electric cars by 2028 – despite uncertainty about the level of demand for such vehicles.

“The reality is that building an electric car involves some 30 percent less effort than one powered by an internal combustion engine,” Diess said. “That means we need to make job cuts.”

AUDI CHALLENGES

The VW brand has brought forward its target of achieving a return on sales of 6 percent to 2022, but this will also involve cutting jobs, the company said.

The brand has ruled out compulsory redundancies until 2025 and is counting on natural attrition and voluntary retirements.

In addition, the group is raising efficiency in production. The VW brand has reduced the number of its model variants by 25 percent. At Audi, the drop is 30 percent.

Volkswagen said it was also ramping up investments in China, the world’s’ largest autos market, where it has joint ventures with local companies JAC and FAW. It will increase the number of SUVs it offers in China to 14 from six.

Along with its local partners, Volkswagen plans to invest 4 billion euros in 2019, China Chief Stephan Woellenstein told analysts. The group, which has 4,200 research and development engineers in China, wants to develop connectivity, autonomous driving and smart infrastructure expertise in China, he added.

Volkswagen also announced a push to hire software engineers as a way to better compete with newer technology focused rivals like Tesla, which have gained an edge with over-the-air software updates for cars.

“Today our 20,000 developers are 90 percent hardware-oriented. That will change radically by 2030. Software will account for half of our development costs,” Diess said.

Volkswagen’s scale would be an important asset in the race to succeed in electric cars, he added. “I take start ups seriously like Tesla … But this is a scale game I think we have a good chance to succeed.”

Volkswagen released detailed 2018 results after announcing some figures last month, when it said group operating profit rose 0.7 percent to 13.92 billion euros ($15.8 billion), below the 14.53 billion euros forecast in a poll.

Audi and Porsche made up the lion’s share of group operating profit – 4.7 billion euros and 4.1 billion euros respectively, before one-off items. The VW brand contributed 3.2 billion.

But Audi’s profitability slipped, due to a 1.2 billion euros diesel-related charge and delays getting its vehicles to conform to a stricter emissions testing standard known as WLTP.

“Audi was hit particularly hard. It will probably be the end of the first quarter before all variants are available again,” Diess said.

The luxury Bentley brand plunged to an operating loss of 288 million euros last year, from a profit of 55 million a year earlier, hit by delays ramping up production of the new Continental GT and exchange rate effects.

Volkswagen stuck to its forecast for revenue to grow up to 5 percent this year, and for a group operating return on sales of 6.5-7.5 percent.

(Reporting by Edward Taylor; Editing by Keith Weir and Mark Potter)

Source: OANN

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Laguna Beach votes to keep American flag on police cars

A Southern California coastal city voted Tuesday to keep the American flag on its police cars despite some residents’ objections that it might offend immigrants.

The Laguna Beach City Council voted Tuesday night to retain a new logo for its 11 police vehicles that uses stars and stripes running through the word "police" on the doors.

Some in the small community thought the flashy red, white and blue decal was too aggressive and flashy while others were surprised that anyone would object to the American flag. The council considered whether to keep the design or choose another.

In a crowded council chamber on Tuesday, virtually everyone in the room raised their hand when asked if they supported the design, video shows. When a lonely hand dissented, the crowd could be heard chuckling.

LAGUNA BEACH COUNCIL MEMBER DISAGREES WITH COMPLAINTS ABOUT PUTTING AMERICAN FLAG ON POLICE CARS

Before the meeting, Mayor Pro Tem Steve Dicterow told the Los Angeles Times the council was simply facing "a very narrow decision" about the brightness of the colors, but that the issue had devolved into a broader national conversation about patriotism.

He said he has received hundreds of emails from people around the country, mostly in support of keeping the flag designs on the car.

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"Clearly, the way it looks on the car is not what anyone expected it to look like," Dicterow said. "I think it's reasonable that we're going to look at it again so that whatever we (approve) is exactly what we put on the car."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: Fox News National

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Mitt Romney Questions Report of Herman Cain Fed Nomination

Hours after it was reported President Donald Trump intends to nominate former Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board, Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, raised issue with it.

"I doubt that will be a nomination. But if it were a nomination, you can bet [what] the interest rates he would be pushing for," Romney told Politico.

"If Herman Cain were on the Fed, you'd know the interest rate would soon be 9-9-9."

Romney was referring to Cain's proposal from his 2012 presidential campaign that would erase all existing taxes and implement a 9 percent personal income tax, a 9 percent federal sales tax, and a 9 percent corporate tax.

Cain previously served as chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City from 1995-1996. He also worked as the chairman and CEO of Godfather's Pizza from 1986-1996.

Bloomberg reported earlier Thursday that Trump plans to nominate Cain and Stephen Moore, a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, for two open Federal Reserve Board seats. Both men are Trump supporters.

Trump has repeatedly attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates, and Bloomberg News reported in December that Trump had even discussed firing him. One way the president can directly influence monetary policy is through nominations to the Fed board, though anyone he picks must be confirmed by the Senate.

Material from Bloomberg was used in this report.

Source: NewsMax America

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U.S. to leave 200 American peacekeepers in Syria after pullout

FILE PHOTO: Syrian schoolchildren walk as U.S. troops patrol near Turkish border in Hasakah
FILE PHOTO: Syrian schoolchildren walk as U.S. troops patrol near Turkish border in Hasakah, Syria Nov. 4, 2018. REUTERS/Rodi Said/File Photo

February 22, 2019

By Steve Holland and Idrees Ali

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States will leave “a small peacekeeping group” of 200 American troops in Syria for a period of time after a U.S. pullout, the White House said on Thursday, as President Donald Trump pulled back from a complete withdrawal.

Trump in December ordered a withdrawal of the 2,000 American troops in Syria, saying they had defeated Islamic State militants there, even as U.S.-backed Syrian forces continued a final push against the group’s last outpost.

But Trump has been under pressure from multiple advisers to adjust his policy to ensure the protection of Kurdish forces, who supported the fight against Islamic State and who might now be threatened by Turkey, and to serve as a bulwark against Iran’s influence.

“A small peacekeeping group of about 200 will remain in Syria for a period of time,” White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said in a statement.

The decision was announced after Trump spoke by phone to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. A White House statement said the two leaders agreed, regarding Syria, to “continue coordinating on the creation of a potential safe zone.”

A senior administration official said Trump’s decision had been in the works for some time. It was unclear how long the 200 troops would be expected to remain in the area or where exactly they would be deployed.

Leaving even a small group of U.S. troops in Syria could pave the way for European allies to commit hundreds of troops to help set up and observe a potential safe zone in northeast Syria.

The commander of U.S.-backed Syrian forces has called for 1,000 to 1,500 international troops to remain in the country to help fight Islamic State and expressed hope the United States, in particular, would halt plans for a total pullout.

‘CLEAR DIRECTION’

The decision to retain peacekeepers could help Trump overcome criticism that he had ordered a precipitous withdrawal from Syria that could lead to Islamic State regaining strength.

“This is a clear direction to our allies and coalition members that we will be on the ground in some capacity,” the senior U.S. administration official said.

Until now, European allies have balked at providing troops unless they received a firm commitment that Washington was still committed to the region.

Belgian Defense Minister Didier Reynders told reporters on Thursday before a meeting with acting Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan that the issue of keeping troops in Syria in the future would be a matter for discussion with U.S. officials.

Turkey wants to set up a safe zone with logistical support from allies and says it should be cleared of the U.S.-backed Kurdish YPG militia, which Ankara considers a terrorist group.

The White House did not say where exactly its troops would be based. In addition to northeast Syria, officials have talked about the importance of keeping some troops at the strategic Tanf garrison on the Iraq-Jordan border.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the initial plan was to have some troops in northeastern Syria and some at Tanf. The official said planning was ongoing and could change.

The Tanf garrison was set up when Islamic State fighters controlled eastern Syria bordering Iraq. But since the militants were driven out, Tanf has assumed a role as part of a U.S. strategy to contain Iran’s military buildup.

U.S. officials have told Reuters that while in Munich last week, Shanahan held a meeting on Syria with a small group of defense ministers. They talked about needing some sort of security arrangement in northeast Syria after the United States left. Shanahan will meet his Turkish counterpart on Friday.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham issued a statement applauding Trump’s decision to keep a small contingent of U.S. troops in Syria as part of an international stabilizing force, saying the president had followed sound military advice that would help avoid the problems the United States faced in Iraq.

(Reporting by Steve Holland and Idrees Ali; Editing by Peter Cooney and Leslie Adler)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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