The Malaysia Airlines flight went missing in March 2014, but investigators have failed to locate the plane’s crash site.
Their search was abandoned in 2018 despite several pieces of debris being found on the shores of islands in the Indian Ocean that allegedly belong to the plane.
Peter Foley, an aviation expert who was part of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau’s team tasked with determining the fate of the missing MH370 flight, told the Express that the key to revealing the place where the Boeing 777 crashed is the plane’s flaperon, which remains in the hands of French investigators.
Foley says that the state of the flaperon could reveal a lot to investigators; specifically, whether the pilot of the doomed plane attempted to glide the Boeing to a stop in an attempt to ditch it. If the latter was the case, then the investigative teams have to expand the search area in the Indian Ocean, as MH370 could have crashed farther away.
Foley said that the team has “seen some [visual] evidence that shows [the flaperon] was in a deployed state,” adding that the fact that such a crucial piece of evidence has remained in France “has been a frustration for the investigation.”
The flaperon was found on a beach on Reunion Island, which belongs to France, in the Indian Ocean in 2015 and was taken away by the Gendarmerie of Air Transport (GTA), which justified the move by the fact that four French citizens were on board flight MH370. In 2018, the GTA said that it was continuing its investigation into the airplane’s disappearance and that it could not yet comment on it.
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 with 239 passengers on board disappeared on 8 March, 2014 on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Following four years of unsuccessful attempts to locate the plane’s crash site, the Malaysian government ended its search in May 2018, admitting that they did not know what happened to the missing Boeing 777.
FILE PHOTO: The Vivendi logo is pictured at the main entrance of the entertainment-to-telecoms conglomerate headquarters in Paris, March 10, 2016. REUTERS/Charles Platiau
March 12, 2019
MILAN (Reuters) – An Italian court will decide after April 30 on French media group Vivendi’s request to suspend a lawsuit over a damage request from broadcaster Mediaset, a legal source said on Tuesday.
Mediaset is seeking 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) in damages from Vivendi after the French group backtracked on a deal to buy Mediaset’s pay-TV unit Premium in July 2016.($1 = 0.8770 euros)
(Reporting by Elvira Pollina; writing by Maria Pia Quaglia, editing by Valentina Za)
The Supreme Court will hear arguments Tuesday over the Trump administration’s bid to append a citizenship question to the 2020 census questionnaire.
Democratic states and city governments are challenging the citizenship question, fearing that diminished noncitizen participation will deprive them of federal funding and seats in Congress. The Justice Department, on the other hand, says citizenship questions have regularly appeared on past census forms and enhance the enforcement of federal law.
“Citizenship and other demographic questions have long been a part of the decennial census despite their potential effect on response rates,” Solicitor General Noel Francisco told the justices in court filings.
“The commerce secretary expressly acknowledged the very concerns respondents raise here, but made the policy judgment that ‘the value of more complete and accurate’ citizenship data ‘outweighs such concerns,’” he added.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who oversees the Census Bureau, approved inclusion of the citizenship question. The Trump administration says Ross’s decision is not reviewable in court, calling the citizenship question a classic policy choice left to the discretion of the commerce secretary.
Elsewhere in legal briefs, the government points to a 1996 case in which the Supreme Court characterized the Commerce Department’s authority over the census “virtually unlimited.”
“The Constitution ‘vests Congress with virtually unlimited discretion in conducting’ the decennial census, and Congress in turn ‘has delegated its constitutional authority over the census’ to the commerce secretary,” Francisco wrote. (RELATED: Chief Justice Rejects Request For Same-Day Audio In Census Citizenship Case)
The plaintiffs sued the administration in April 2018, warning that the citizenship question will substantially decrease minority participation in the census. Since federal aid and seats in the House of Representatives are apportioned on the basis of population, left-leaning jurisdictions fear the loss of political representation and federal monies.
U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman barred the government from including the citizenship question in a sweeping decision that ran nearly 300 pages. Furman said that Ross violated the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), a federal statute that governs agency decision-making.
“[Ross] failed to consider several important aspects of the problem; alternately ignored, cherry-picked, or badly misconstrued the evidence in the record before him; acted irrationally both in light of that evidence and his own stated decisional criteria; and failed to justify significant departures from past policies and practices — a veritable smorgasbord of classic, clear-cut APA violations,” his decision reads.
Elsewhere in the decision, Furman said Ross’s explanations for adding the citizenship question were pretextual, meaning his official explanations appear to differ from his actual motivations.
Two other district judges went further, saying that the citizenship question violates the Constitution, which requires an “actual enumeration” of persons.
New York Attorney General Letitia James is leading a coalition of city and state governments challenging the citizenship question before the high court. New York says Ross’s actions are unlawful for a number of independent reasons. Perhaps most importantly, the states accuse Ross of disregarding the warnings of career Census Bureau experts, who said that the citizenship question would depress minority responses and generate an inaccurate tally. Such action, the plaintiffs say, is unlawfully “arbitrary and capricious.”
“The secretary unreasonably ignored the uncontroverted empirical evidence that the citizenship question would make the enumeration less accurate,” New York’s brief to the justices reads. “All the evidence in the record demonstrates that a citizenship question would cause millions of noncitizens and Hispanics to not respond to the census, undermining the accuracy of the constitutionally required headcount.”
The states elsewhere say the Commerce Department could collect the citizenship data it seeks through existing federal records from the Social Security Administration the Citizenship and Immigration Services, belying the need for a census question on this subject. (RELATED: ‘Scandalous And Immoral’ Or First Amendment Speech? Justices Mull ‘Fuct’ Trademark)
The American Civil Liberties Union and congressional Democrats will also argue against the citizenship question before the justices on Tuesday.
Looking to the future, Loyola Law School Professor Justin Levitt suggested in a forthcoming paper that granular citizenship data could serve as a basis for redistricting and apportionment in the future, instead of total population. Whether federal law allows this, he added, is an open question.
“It may be that adding a citizenship question to the decennial census becomes a vehicle for a block-by-block dataset of citizen population, ostensibly suitable for a novel redistricting population base,” Levitt wrote.
A decision in the case, Department of Commerce v. New York, is expected by late June.
Joamary Rosario was charged with distributing heroin and fentanyl leading to a death, according to investigators. (Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office)
A 28-year-old Tampa woman was charged with distributing heroin and fentanyl leading to a death, according to investigators -- who said they nabbed her with the help of an undercover officer who posed as a dead man.
United States Attorney Maria Chapa Lopez said in a statement that Joamary Rosario allegedly “sold 10 plastic bags — each of which contained a substance composed of a mixture of heroin, fentanyl, and acetyl fentanyl” — to a man who died in early November.
The next night an undercover law enforcement officer posed as the dead man to nab Rosario, who “was arrested and found to be in possession of three more bags of the same substance,” the release said.
U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, seated, tours a technical college in Florence, S.C., Thursday, Feb. 21, 2019, with state Education Superintendent Molly Spearman, left, and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, right. DeVos made a trip to the state to visit an area once known as the “Corridor of Shame” where officials say dramatic improvements have been made in schools since state officials took over their control last year. (AP Photo/Meg Kinnard)
TIMMONSVILLE, S.C. – The nation's top education official says she's impressed with developments in what was once one of South Carolina's most underperforming school districts.
U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos spoke Thursday after touring schools in a district that's one of several dozen along Interstate 95 bestowed with the nickname "Corridor of Shame" because of their substandard schools.
DeVos said she was encouraged to see improvements like a more diverse curriculum that have come since last year, when state Superintendent of Education Molly Spearman declared a state of emergency in Florence School District Four and took over its management. By sharing some services with neighboring districts, state officials say they've saved more than $600,000 in the struggling district's budget.
The visit comes amid ongoing debate on how to improve South Carolina's education system.
MILAN – A third descendant of Italy's long-time fascist dictator Benito Mussolini is entering the political arena.
Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini — Mussolini's great-grandson, whose name is taken from one of ancient Rome's most famous rulers — is running as a candidate in European elections for the far-right Brothers of Italy Party.
Party leader Giorgia Meloni announced Mussolini's candidacy over the weekend. His political ambitions follow that of his second cousins, Alessandra Mussolini, an EU parliamentarian for Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, and Rachele Mussolini, a Rome city council member associated with Brothers of Italy.
Meloni said protests against the latest Mussolini political debut led Facebook to cancel his profile due to his last name. Caio Mussolini said Tuesday that his profile had been restored, with apologies.
Caio Mussolini, 51, was a naval officer for 15 years, then an executive in Italy's largest defense contractor Finmeccanica before turning to politics.
"He is a professional, a serviceman, a patriot," Meloni said against the backdrop of the multi-arched facade of the Palace of Italian Civilization that was built by Benito Mussolini and known to modern-day Romans as the "Squared Colosseum."
Standing beside Meloni, Caio Mussolini, who is running in southern Italy, called it an honor to run for Brothers of Italy, which he described as "patriotic, like I am."
In an interview with the right-wing paper Libero, Caio Mussolini conceded that his name is not an easy one to carry, but that he will "never be ashamed of my family."
Asked if he would define himself as a fascist, he responded: "Fascism died with Benito Mussolini."
He added that he was born well after that period and that fascism was now something for "historians to study." Anyone worried about its revival, he said, "is seeing imaginary enemies."
"I see other dangers. The thought police, globalism, the dictatorship of political correctness, uncontrolled immigration a few small financial groups that control everything, Islamic extremism," the newspaper quoted him as saying.
Benito Mussolini was Italy's dictator for two decades until his summary execution in 1945.
Mussolini plunged Italy into World War II, allying himself with Nazi Germany's leader Adolf Hitler, and signing racial laws that led to the deportation and murders of thousands of Italian Jews.
That modern-day politicians stir controversies when they praise any Mussolini accomplishment, particularly infrastructure, underlines the dictator's fraught legacy.
Neo-fascist parties remained part of Italy's post-war political landscape, even though supporting fascism became a crime.
Mussolini's grand-daughter Alessandra has been part of Italian politics for decades, first as a member of a party founded after the war by her grandfather's supporters, then by successor movements that moderated their rhetoric before being absorbed into conservative parties.
At the same time, anti-fascism became prominent in post-war Italian history, wielded against even to those who were not fascists at all. That created a political culture of rebellion against demonizing fascism, despite the damage it did.
Friends and clients of a couple that fled a high-pressure lifestyle for a more simple one on a farm several years ago now wonder what signs they may have overlooked that might explain the violent way James and Lizette Eckert died last month.
The couple had three children – a biological daughter, 15, and two sons, ages 11 and 13, they adopted from Russia when the boys, who are brothers, were just 2 and 4.
James and Lizette Eckert were found by police in the New Hampshire farmhouse they lived in since moving from Maine in 2012, on the floor, bleeding. Lizette was dead, James was taking his last breaths. Both had been shot once in the head.
Police announced the arrest of an 11-year-old about two hours later, and have charged him with two counts of second-degree murder, according to a press release by state and local police. The release said the boy’s identity and other information are being withheld because he is a minor.
The Boston Globe, in an extensive story on the parents, said that two people who are knowledgeable about the investigation say the alleged killer is the Eckerts’ youngest son.
Few details were offered about the youngest son, other than the observation by those who had been around the Eckerts that he was quiet and that, back in Maine, he cried a lot, according to the Globe.
The Eckerts ran their own chiropractic business in New Hampshire, drawing a broad base of devoted clients who described them as miracle workers and lived expensively. They seemed always to be renovating their large home, they had a Mercedes camper, a boat and timeshares, the Boston Globe reported.
They also went full-throttle into their business, dedicated to giving their patients relief from pain and taking a comprehensive approach to their health.
James Eckert, who was 48 when he died (Lizette was 50), wrote in a local newspaper several years ago: "I desire to help the newborn, the aged, and those without hope…I choose to care for the patient with the disease, not the disease…I wish to assist rather than intrude, to free rather than control.”
Their lavish lifestyle, the Globe reported, caught up with the Eckerts, who started missing mortgage payments on their Maine property and were hounded by bill collectors. They ran into trouble with the Internal Revenue Service, which assessed the couple more than $100,000.
Neighbors saw a change in the family as their financial downward spiral continued.
James stopped working, they had stopped maintaining their property, and the children seemed unsupervised.
Then one day, abruptly, they left Maine for the farmhouse in New Hampshire that Lizette’s father was said to have bought for the couple, the Globe reported.
The Eckerts voiced disgust with the court system and the government in general.
They homeschooled their children.
While some Maine neighbors said they had been standoffish, their New Hampshire ones said they were very engaged at church and in the community. They resumed chiropractic care and again built a following of satisfied patients.
One of them, Virginia Adams, wrote on the couple’s obituary page: “I would see Dr. Jim twice a week and was always greeted with a cheerful, ‘How's your day?’ His office was a social gathering, a place to see friends, get advice and share a story. I feel so sad. I can't imagine what the family is going through. Hopefully, their faith will bring some comfort.”
Those who interacted with them said they never betrayed any concern about any of their children.
Gertrude Hammond, director of religious education and youth ministry at St. Katharine Drexel Parish in Alton, told the Union Leader newspaper shortly after the murders: “They were here last weekend for our annual parish bingo. They were here for Mass. They were here for youth night. The boys are altar servers. They’re just an integral part of the parish."
The Globe noted that on her Facebook page, Lizette’s “likes” suggested an interest in the topic of kids who are traumatized.
She “liked” the television show "Disconnected Kids, Reconnected Families" and a page for parents of children who have experienced trauma and have problems connecting with others.
Police have not disclosed how the 11-year-old suspect got his hands on a gun or what may have compelled him to murder the Eckerts.
Meanwhile, Lizette’s mother, Diane Kennedy, has established a GoFundMe page to raise money for the Eckert children.
“The terrible impact of losing Lizette and Jim will be felt by their children for many years to come,” she wrote. “Because the story has been in the news, we are doing all we can to protect the children from excess attention, while still allowing the community that loves them so much and so well to help them in ways that will make a lasting impact.”
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo
April 26, 2019
By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño
MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.
No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.
Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.
By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.
Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.
The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.
The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.
The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.
Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.
It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.
While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.
TRENDING
According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.
Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.
Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.
Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.
“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said
For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.
“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.
For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.
The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.
The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.
That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.
(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)
(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
April 26, 2019
JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.
“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.
(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot
April 26, 2019
By Julien Pretot
MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.
It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.
“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.
Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.
They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.
At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.
In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.
At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.
“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.
As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.
The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.
“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.
SAME TREATMENT
One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.
“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.
This is not the case with the boys, she added.
“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.
Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.
“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.
OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.
“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.
“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”
‘ONE CLUB’
The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.
While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.
There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.
“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.
“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.
Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.
“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.
“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”
Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.
“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.
“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”
(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo
April 26, 2019
GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.
“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.
The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.
The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.
Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.
Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.
(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
April 26, 2019
(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.
1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT
The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.
Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.
Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.
(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)
2/FED: UP OR DOWN?
Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.
Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.
Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.
Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.
Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.
(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)
3/HEISEI TO REIWA
Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.
The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.
The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.
The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.
(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)
4/EARNING TURNING
Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.
Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.
That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.
The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.
Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.
GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.
Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.
Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.
Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.
The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.
(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)
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