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China producer inflation picks up for first time in 9 months, eases deflation worries

Chinese banknotes are seen at a vendor's cash box at a market in Beijing
Chinese banknotes are seen at a vendor's cash box at a market in Beijing February 14, 2014. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

April 11, 2019

By Stella Qiu and Se Young Lee

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory-gate inflation picked up for the first time in nine months in March, edging away from deflationary territory, in a fresh sign that government efforts to boost the economy may be starting to revitalise domestic demand.

Consumer inflation also quickened, jumping to the highest since October 2018 as pork prices soared due to a growing epidemic of swine fever, official data showed on Thursday.

The step-up in producer inflation, while slight, will likely add to optimism that the world’s second-largest economy is slowly starting to turn the corner, after recent surveys showed factory activity expanded for the first time in months.

But analysts urge caution, saying it will take a few more months of better data and further policy support from Beijing to see if a recovery can be sustained.

China’s producer price index (PPI) in March rose 0.4 percent from a year earlier, in line with analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll and advancing from a 0.1 percent increase in February, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

Most of the gain was in mining, with prices in extraction rising 4.2 percent on-year, up from 1.8 percent in February. Drops in raw material prices also moderated.

But improvements may have been due more to changes in commodity prices than stronger demand. Prices of consumer durables fell for a second month, pointing to lingering weakness in demand for big-ticket items such as cars and appliances.

“Looking ahead, we expect oil prices to fall back in the coming months. This will drag down PPI… Meanwhile, continued economic weakness is likely to keep a lid on broader price pressures,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics.

On a monthly basis, producer prices increased for the first time in five months. The index inched up 0.1 percent, compared with a 0.1 percent decrease in February.

The world’s second-largest economy is growing at its weakest pace in almost three decades amid weaker domestic demand and a year-long trade war with the United States. Multi-year campaigns to curb debt risks and pollution have deterred fresh investment.

In response, Beijing plans more spending on roads, railways and ports, which is expected to push up demand for and prices of construction materials. Prices of steel reinforcing bars used in building hit 7-1/2 years highs this week.

Last month, the government announced nearly 2 trillion yuan (227 billion pounds) in additional tax cuts to ease the pressure on corporate balance sheets, while authorities are pressing banks to keep lending to struggling smaller firms.

Cuts in value-added tax (VAT) that kicked in on April 1 have already led authorities to reduce prices for electricity and natural gas. Retail gasoline and diesel prices are to be reduced as well.

A growing number of companies ranging from Apple Inc to BMW have lowered prices for their products following the tax cuts.

SWINE FEVER DRIVING UP PORK PRICES

The consumer price index (CPI) in March rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, a five-month high, largely due to higher pork prices as the spread of African swine fever prompts farmers to cull their herds.

That was more than a 1.5 percent increase in February but just below market expectations for a 2.4 percent rise.

Pork prices rose 5.1 percent in March from a year earlier, the first increase after a 25-month declining streak.

On a month-on-month basis, CPI rose 1.2 percent.

Some analysts forecast pig production in China, which eats about half of the world’s pork, will fall by around 30 percent in 2019, which would send meat prices soaring.

But economists say the central bank is unlikely to overreact to a food price spike if it appears temporary and core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, remains steady.

Non-food consumer inflation was 1.8 percent on-year, just a touch more than February.

(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Se Young Lee; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Source: OANN

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Pompeo pays pre-election visit to Israel, cites close Trump-Netanyahu ties

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands as they deliver joint statements during their meeting in Jerusalem
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands as they deliver joint statements during their meeting in Jerusalem March 20, 2019. REUTERS/Jim Young/Pool

March 20, 2019

By Jeffrey Heller

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showcased his close relationship with the Trump administration on Wednesday, hosting U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo three weeks before an Israeli election.

Washington’s announcement that President Donald Trump, a popular figure among Israelis, had invited Netanyahu to the White House for talks and a dinner two weeks ahead of the April 9 vote was also widely seen in Israel as a boost for the right-wing Likud party chief.

Following a visit to Kuwait, Pompeo met Netanyahu in Jerusalem, where both men hailed U.S.-Israeli ties under Trump, a popular figure among Israelis and a leader whom the prime minister has featured on election billboards.

“We also know that our alliance in recent years has never been stronger,” Netanyahu said in comments to reporters, with Pompeo at his side.

Netanyahu is battling for his political survival against both a strong challenger in centrist candidate Benny Gantz and against plans by Israel’s attorney-general to indict the prime minister, now in his fourth term, in three corruption cases.

Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing and portrayed himself in the election race as a leader with a wealth of international diplomatic experience that Gantz, a former armed forces chief and novice politician, cannot match.

“I look forward to my visit next week to Washington, where I will meet with President Trump, and I believe we can carry this relationship even stronger,” Netanyahu said. “It’s getting stronger and stronger and stronger.”

Angering Palestinians and drawing international concern, Trump broke with decades of U.S. Middle East policy by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017 and moving the American Embassy, which Pompeo will visit on Thursday, to the city last May.

Pompeo, in his remarks, said the Israeli people should have confidence that Trump – who is due to present a peace plan after the Israeli ballot – will maintain a “close bond” with Israel.

“I know that you and the president have an outstanding working relationship,” Pompeo said, addressing Netanyahu. “He sent me here to build upon that and to represent him here.”

Netanyahu said he and Pompeo, at the start of their discussions, examined how to “roll back Iranian aggression” in the region.

Pressure on Iran, Netanyahu said, must be intensified now that the United States has reimposed sanctions on Tehran following Washington’s withdrawal from a 2015 deal with world powers to limit the Iranian nuclear program.

Pompeo and Netanyahu later attended a meeting in Jerusalem with leaders from Cyprus and Greece on the construction of a 2,000 km (1,243 mile) gas pipeline linking vast eastern Mediterranean gas resources to Europe through those countries and Italy at a cost of $7 billion.

Lebanon – Pompeo’s next stop – has warned its Mediterranean neighbors that the planned EastMed pipeline must not be allowed to violate its maritime borders.

(Reporting by Jeffrey Heller; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

Source: OANN

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12 GOP senators join Dems to block Trump border declaration

Twelve Republican senators sided with Democrats Thursday and voted to block President Donald Trump's declaration of an emergency on the southwest border. Trump has vowed to veto the Democratic measure, which the House passed last month in a bid to stymie Trump's efforts to spend billions of extra dollars on a U.S.-Mexico border wall.

Of the dozen GOP senators who went against Trump, just one — Maine Sen. Susan Collins — faces re-election next year.

A look at what the Republican defectors said about their votes:

— Lamar Alexander of Tennessee: "After a Revolutionary War against a king, our nation's founders gave to Congress the power to approve all spending so that the president would not have too much power. This check on the executive is a crucial source of our freedom."

— Roy Blunt of Missouri, a member of the GOP leadership: "I was aggressively opposed to the Obama administration's attempts to circumvent Congress's appropriating authority to prop up" the health-care law known as Obamacare. "The same principle should apply regardless of which party occupies the White House."

— Collins: "I'm sure (the president) will not be happy with my vote, but I'm a United States senator and feel my job is to stand up for the Constitution. So let the chips fall where they may."

— Mike Lee of Utah: "Congress is supposed to be the first among the federal government's three co-equal branches. For decades, Congress has been giving far too much legislative power to the executive branch."

— Jerry Moran of Kansas: "I aggressively opposed the overreach of past presidents and believe that I cannot pick and choose to now look the other way. How we do things — even good things — matter. We were raised that the ends don't justify the means."

— Lisa Murkowski of Alaska: "When the executive branch goes around the express intention of Congress on matters within its jurisdiction, we must speak up or legislative acquiescence will erode our constitutional authority."

— Rand Paul of Kentucky: "I stand with President Trump on the need for a border wall and stronger border security, but the Constitution clearly states that money cannot be spent unless Congress has passed a law to do so."

— Rob Portman of Ohio: "There is no question we need stronger border security. Erecting more barriers and fencing in key areas along the border will help stem the tide. But we have to do that in the right way. Congress, not the president, has sole authority to determine how to spend taxpayer money. Declaring a national emergency to access different funds sets a dangerous new precedent."

— Mitt Romney of Utah: "This is a vote for the Constitution and for the balance of powers that is at its core. For the executive branch to override a law passed by Congress would make it the ultimate power rather than a balancing power. I am seriously concerned that overreach by the executive branch is an invitation to further expansion and abuse by future presidents."

— Marco Rubio of Florida: "We have an emergency at our border, which is why I support the president's use of forfeiture funds and counter-drug money to build a wall. However, I cannot support moving funds that Congress explicitly appropriated for construction and upgrades of our military bases. This would create a precedent a future president may abuse to jumpstart programs like the Green New Deal" or other liberal ideas.

— Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania: "I support what the president is trying to do. I don't support the way the president is going about it, and to me that's an important distinction." Trump's emergency declaration "set a troubling precedent" regarding the president's ability to go around Congress and redirect tax dollars for other purposes, Toomey said.

— Roger Wicker of Mississippi: "I strongly support (Trump's) plan to build walls on our southern border, but an emergency declaration (is) the wrong approach. The president already has almost $6 billion available that can be used to build border walls. I am concerned about the precedent an emergency declaration sets, which might empower a future liberal president to declare emergencies to enact gun control, address 'climate emergencies' or even tear down the wall we are building today."

Source: Fox News National

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Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan to retire

FILE PHOTO: Wells Fargo CEO Sloan testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing
FILE PHOTO: Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing titled: "Holding Megabanks Accountable: An Examination of Wells Fargo's Pattern of Consumer Abuses" in Washington, U.S. March 12, 2019. REUTERS/Erin Scott

March 28, 2019

Source: OANN

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Student who survived Parkland school shooting dies in suicide: report

The suicide death over the weekend of a teen who survived the 2018 Parkland school shooting is being blamed on the horrible tragedy.

Sydney Aiello, 19, of Coconut Creek, died Sunday, according to police. Her grief-stricken mother told a news station Sydney took her own life. Sydney and Meadow Pollack, one of the 17 persons killed in the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, were close friends.

“It breaks my heart that we’ve lost yet another student from Stoneman Douglas,” Ryan Petty told CBS 4 Miami. Alaina Perry, his daughter, was also one of the victims.

BILL WOULD STRIP PARKLAND DEPUTY OF RETIREMENT BENEFITS

“My advice to parents is to ask questions, don’t wait,” he said.

Sydney suffered from “survivor’s guilt” and had been diagnosed recently with post-traumatic stress disorder, Cara Aiello told the station.

She said her daughter was taking college classes but struggled because she was scared to be in a classroom. She graduated Stoneman Douglas in June after the shooting.

FLORIDA SCHOOL BOARD VOTES NOT TO FIRE EMBATTLED STONEMAN DOUGLAS SUPERINTENDENT

Aiello said her daughter was sad but never asked for help before killing herself, according to the station.

She said she was talking about the suicide in hopes that others can learn from what happened to her daughter.

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“Beautiful Sydney with such a bright future was taken from us way too soon,” Meadow Pollack’s brother, Hunter Pollack, said Wednesday on Twitter. “My friend’s sister and someone dear to Meadow."

Source: Fox News National

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Sri Lankan woman loses most of her family in Easter bombings

On Sunday, 43-year-old Anusha Kumari was left childless and a widow when suicide bombers launched a coordinated attack on churches and luxury hotels in Sri Lanka.

More than 350 people were killed in the near-simultaneous bombings. About a third of the victims were celebrating Easter Mass at St. Sebastian's Church in Negombo.

Kumari lost her daughter, son, husband, sister-in-law and two nieces.

They were buried three days later on some vacant land near the stricken church that has quickly become a cemetery for some of the bombing victims.

Sri Lanka's president has asked for the resignations of the defense secretary and national police chief after acknowledging that some intelligence units were aware of threats to churches before the Easter bombings.

Source: Fox News World

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California school district changing name tied to Confederacy

The Dixie School District board voted Tuesday night to change the name of the 150-year-old district after critics linked it to the Confederacy and slavery.

Trustees voted 3-1, with one abstention, to change both the name of the San Francisco Bay Area district and the name of its elementary school by Aug. 22, when classes resume.

However, the board didn't choose a new name. A committee made up of parents, other community members and district staff will be set up to solicit and evaluate suggestions from the public.

The board rejected some 15 names in February when it voted against a name-change on grounds that more community input was needed.

The cost of the name change, such as replacing signs, was estimated at nearly $40,000, but the Marin Community Foundation pledged to cover it.

Dixie is a nickname for the southern U.S. states that formed the pro-slavery Confederacy in 1860, sparking the Civil War. The legacy of the Confederacy prompts political, legal and cultural conflicts to this day.

Those who support changing the name say the district was named Dixie by James Miller, the school founder, on a dare by Confederate sympathizers. Those who oppose the change say the school system was named for Mary Dixie, a Miwok Indian woman that Miller knew in the 1840s.

The name-change issue has generated heated debate in San Rafael, an overwhelmingly white city of 59,000 people, with some insisting the Dixie name is racially insensitive while others complain the proposed change is political correctness run amok.

Both sides spoke out during Tuesday night's meeting.

"You know Dixie is a racist name, so change it," said Bali Simon, a fifth-grader at Dixie Elementary School. "I'm hoping I can go back to school next fall proud of our new district name."

An opponent of the name change, Mette Nygard, said the "ugly insinuations" tarnished Miller's reputation.

"The community is so far removed from the confederacy that it's a ridiculous assertion," Nygard said.

However, she was interrupted by demonstrators chanting "Dixie must go!" Critics of the current name also brought signs into the room that said "say no to racism."

Some of the proposed names that were previously rejected by the board included "Marie Dixie Elementary School District" and "Skywalker Elementary School District."

Source: Fox News National

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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