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What Massive Consumer Debt Really Means for Americans

As we reported last week, consumer debt continues to break records month after month.

Americans owe over $4.3 trillion dollars in revolving debt (primarily credit cards), student loans and auto loans. When you factor in mortgages, the number climbs to $13.54 trillion. That figure was $869 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008 (right before the crash) and 21.4% above the post-financial-crisis trough reached in the second quarter of 2013.

But many mainstream analysts downplay this surge in debt. And on the surface, the numbers do seem to indicate the risk isn’t as big as it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis. But as Wolf Richter explains, the averages conceal a different reality.

There are three factors that lead some analysts to minimize the debt issue.

First, the population has grown by about 25 million people since the 2008 crisis. That means this record level of debt is spread across a larger population.  Second, the economy and incomes have both grown over the last decade. Third, price inflation devalues the dollar and skews all of the numbers.

So, if you measure consumer debt by percentage of GDP, it has dropped from about 100% of GDP during the run-up to the financial crisis to about 76% of GDP today. And if we look at the debt load per capita, it comes to about $41,000 per person today compared with about $41,800 in 2008. But when you factor inflation, the per capita debt load has actually fallen by 16% since ’08.

“So, on average and thrown all into one bucket, consumers have reduced their leverage and this makes the financial system less risky – on average. But those are averages spread across the country with all households thrown into one bucket. Given how income disparity and wealth disparity have surged since 2008, with the top portion of Americans doing exceedingly well and with the lower 40% struggling more than ever, these averages conceal the real risks, disguise real problems and give us a false sense of peace of mind about the American consumer.”

As Wolf Richter points out, it’s always the most vulnerable who get in trouble first – specifically those in the bottom 40% of the earnings scale. They don’t have any savings to cushion even short term problems such as a layoff or extended illness. This has always been the case. But Wolf points out a big difference today.

“In the Fed-inspired economy where zero interest rate policy and QE purposefully inflated all asset prices including stocks and housing, asset holders have become immensely rich and those households making income from the assets are getting richer.”

(Photo by TBIT/Pixabay)

But this isn’t the case for the bottom 40% of households. While the top 20 to 40% have gotten a “fabulous ride” since the Fed started QE and repressed interest rates, the bottom 40% face an entirely different scenario. Household incomes for the bottom 20 to 40% barely ticked up over the past decade to $35,400. The very bottom 20% actually saw their household incomes decline to $13,250.

“Those bottom 40% of households are the consumers who are most at risk and the past decade has done nothing for them … Those 50 million households are as much at risk and are as vulnerable as they were before the financial crisis.”

So, the 50 million households at the top average out the 50 million at the bottom and create the illusion at overall everything is fine.

“When we talk about consumers being less at risk on average, we’re not seeing the reality that the income and wealth disparities are leaving behind in their tracks.”

We also see a similar problem in the housing market. About a third of homeowners bought recently near the peak of the housing market, or have refinanced their mortgages and have very little equity built up. This third is very vulnerable to a downturn. These households are also averaged out when you look at national aggregates.

Consider that during the housing crisis, only about 10% of mortgages went into default. Many of these mortgages were held by investors who simply walked away when the math no longer worked out.

“Today, there are more investors in the housing market than ever, from mom-and-pop entities to big corporate entities. Cheap money and tax advantages have encouraged that.”

We’re already seeing some fraying in the subprime auto market with a record 7 million-plus Americans at least 90 days delinquent on their auto loans. In its last report, the New York Fed said performance in the auto loan sector is “slowly worsening.”

Flows into serious delinquency for credit cards is also on this rise, increasing by 5% in Q4 2018, up from 4.8% in the third quarter.

“These risks are just slumbering beneath the rosy averages for now waiting for the day to reemerge.”


Gerald Celente hosts to break down the latest forecasts patriots should be aware of.

Source: InfoWars

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Biden Catches Flak on Twitter for Reaction to Misconduct Claims

Former Vice President Joe Biden is catching heat for what his reaction to claims that he acted inappropriately toward women lacked — an apology.

A short time after Biden posted a brief video on Twitter on the heels of four women coming forward to say he was inappropriate with them in public settings, the social media network lit up with reactions.

Journalist Erin Biba:
"He didn't apologize. He kept bringing up how he touches men, which essentially ignored the fact that these problems are being brought up exclusively by women. And he said that the desire not to be touched is "new" rather then simply that women finally feel safe to speak up."

Writer and humorist Jason O. Gilbert:
"Everyone needs to cut Joe Biden some slack. He comes from a different time, when you had to sniff a woman’s hair to make sure it was not concealing a sword."

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.:
"I know [Joe Biden] very well … I think whatever he did, it may have been inappropriate, but it was not driven by malice or misconduct."

Journalist Naomi Fry:
"i bet joe biden gives a great shoulder massage."

Journalist Ryan Teague Beckwith:
"Biden Announces New Personal Space Force."

Democratic strategist Waleed Shahid:
"It isn't just about norms changing. The problem with 'centrists' like Biden is that they have the privilege of choosing convenience over what's always been right. It's true of behavior toward women and his stances on desegregation, crime, Iraq, & more."

Journalist Ella Dawson:
"I respect that Joe Biden is trying to listen and learn, but I think it's worth underscoring that power dynamics are not a matter of social norms. That it's less socially acceptable to violate the personal space of women doesn't mean it wasn't already exploitative in the past."

Biden is expected to announce a presidential run in the near future.

Source: NewsMax Politics

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Former acting ICE director challenges Democrats: What have they done to solve the ‘crisis’ at the border?

Congress needs to do its job and close loopholes that encourage illegal immigration, former acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement director and Fox News contributor, Tom Homan said Friday.

“The Congress has failed the American people. The Democratic leadership, show me one thing they’ve done to solve this crisis down at the border,” Homan said on America’s Newsroom.

“What have they done to address the surge at the border? The only one who is doing anything is this administration. The president has done executive actions, declared national emergencies. He’s getting sued every time he does executive action to try to stem the flow of the tide. The 9th circuit has got him tied up every time he turns around.”

On Friday, President Trump, whose 2016 campaign promise was to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, threatened to close the Southern Border next week if Mexico does not “immediately stop” the record-breaking surge of illegal immigrants flooding into the United States.

Trump's warning comes as Customs and Border Protection officials say March is on pace to exceed 100,000 border apprehensions -- the highest monthly total in a decade. According to CBP, this week alone, agents have more than 12,000 migrants in custody.

“The DEMOCRATS have given us the weakest immigration laws anywhere in the World. Mexico has the strongest, & they make more than $100 Billion a year on the U.S.,” Trump tweeted Friday. “Therefore, CONGRESS MUST CHANGE OUR WEAK IMMIGRATION LAWS NOW, & Mexico must stop illegals from entering the U.S. through their country and our Southern Border.”

“Mexico has for many years made a fortune off of the U.S., far greater than Border Costs. If Mexico doesn’t immediately stop ALL illegal immigration coming into the United States throug[sic] our Southern Border, I will be CLOSING the Border, or large sections of the Border, next week,” he continued.

“This would be so easy for Mexico to do, but they just take our money and ‘talk.’ Besides, we lose so much money with them, especially when you add in drug trafficking etc.), that the Border closing would be a good thing!”

Trump also threatened to close the border at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan Thursday.

“What needs to be done is Congress needs to close the loopholes. Congress needs to do their job instead of Democratic leadership asking to abolish a federal law enforcement agency for enacting laws that they don’t think work. Why don’t they do their job and fix the laws so they do work and close the loopholes that entice these people to come?” Homan asked.

The president’s tweets and comments threatening to shut down the southern border come after similar warnings earlier in the week, with Trump accusing Mexico and Central American nations of doing “nothing” as illegal immigration surges.

Trump’s initial warning came following comments made by U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Kevin McAlleenan, who said this week that the border was at its “breaking point,” noting that there are not enough agents to respond to the flow of illegal immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.

SENATE VOTES TO BLOCK TRUMP'S BORDER EMERGENCY DECLARATION, IN BIPARTISAN REBUKE TEEING UP VETO

Meanwhile, the president, declared a national emergency in a bid to free up funding for the barrier along the border. This month, the president issued his first veto on a Democrat-backed measure to cancel the emergency.

On Tuesday, House Democrats failed to override Trump’s veto, allowing Trump to move forward with the issue.

Trump had declared the border emergency under a law that lets him shift budget funds to address dire situations. His plan is to shift an additional $3.6 billion from military construction projects to work on border barriers. Congress voted this year to limit spending on such barriers to less than $1.4 billion, and Democrats accused Trump of ignoring lawmakers' constitutional control over spending.

New Jersey Democrat Rep. Jeff Van Drew takes a stand on the issue that most Democrats don’t, saying he believes the border needs some kind of barrier to solve the crisis.

“We are not an open border country. Period. I do not believe in that. I do not believe it’s good for our security. I do not believe it’s good for the economic health of the country and I don’t think it’s something we should do,” he said Friday.

“At the same time take I also believe that we should take care of the Dreamers. These were folks that were here since they were little children and they should go through a process where they learn about America, swear the oath, take the test and become Americans.”

TRUMP THREATENS TO CLOSE BORDER 'NEXT WEEK' IF MEXICO DOESN'T 'IMMEDIATELY STOP' FLOOD OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS 

“This congressman put politics aside for a moment and talked to Fox News about what he thinks needs to be done to fix the border,” Homan said in response.

“I agree with most of everything he said and that’s what needs to happen. I don’t care if you are Republican or Democrat, there is no downside on securing our border.”

“I don’t care if you are Republican or Democrat your number one responsibility is protect this nation, protect our sovereignty and secure our border. So I agree with the congressman,” Homan continued.

Homan offered a “controversial” solution to the problem, saying he has “done it and it worked.”

“ICE needs to get out there right now and look for these family groups and these single adults who enter this country illegally. They had their due process, they demand to claim asylum, they demand to see a judge. Ok, we’ve done that at great taxpayer expense. They’ve been ordered removed by a federal judge,” said Homan.

“ICE needs to find these family groups and these single adults, find them, detain them and remove them. Because if those orders from a judge don’t mean anything, then there’s no integrity into our system.”

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Homan said he did this about three-and-a-half-years ago and “once we removed a large portion of family units, showing there is deterrence, there is some sort of consequence abiding our laws the numbers on the border went down.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

Source: Fox News Politics

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'Ivory Queen' smuggler jailed for 15 years

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A prominent Chinese businesswoman dubbed the “Ivory Queen” was sentenced to 15 years in prison by a Tanzanian court on Tuesday (February 19) for smuggling the tusks of more than 350 elephants to Asia. Lauren Anthony reports.

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Rosengren says Fed should adopt target inflation range

FILE PHOTO: File Photo: The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's President and CEO Eric S. Rosengren speaks in New York
FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's President and CEO Eric S. Rosengren speaks in New York, April 17, 2013. REUTERS/Keith Bedford/File Photo

April 16, 2019

The U.S. Federal Reserve should shore up its ability to fight economic downturns by committing to let inflation run above 2% when times are good, a top policymaker said on Monday.

The comments by Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, echoed remarks made earlier in the day by another Fed policymaker who cited the U.S. economy’s falling a bit short on the central bank’s inflation target as a problem. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is currently at 1.8%.

Rosengren said he supports an approach that would see the Fed, which is “forced to accept” inflation below its 2% target during recessions, commit to achieve above-2% inflation “in good times.” Policymakers, for instance, could target a range of 1.5-2.5%.

“Looking forward, achieving a symmetric inflation target is likely to be that much more difficult in a world where interest rates are low, given the constraint on reducing rates enough to move inflation back toward (or above) the Fed policymakers’ target,” Rosengren said in remarks prepared for delivery at Davidson College in North Carolina. “My own preference is for the Federal Reserve to adopt an inflation range.”

The Fed, which adopted the 2% inflation aim in 2012, calls its current target “symmetric,” meaning it is not a cap.

The remarks come ahead of a broad policy review being conducted by the Fed this year. How the Fed meets its inflation target is one of the key topics.

The president of the Chicago Fed, Charles Evans, said earlier on Monday that the U.S. central bank should embrace inflation above its target half the time and consider cutting rates if prices do not rise as fast as expected. Both Rosengren and Evans are voting members on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year.

Some policymakers and analysts think the Fed is better equipped to respond to upward spikes in prices than to persistently low readings. That is because interest rate cuts lose their potency as borrowing costs approach zero. The Fed now targets short-term rates between 2.25-2.50%, leaving relatively little room to cut in the face of a recession.

But even though the Fed says its current inflation target is “symmetric,” in practice, people have seen the figure as a “ceiling,” and prices have tended to grow less than 2% each year, Rosengren said. The Fed has kept rates steady this year after raising them four times in 2018, and Rosengren said one reason is policymakers want evidence that inflation will stay around 2%.

Alternatives to the Fed’s current approach, including the one endorsed by Rosengren and others discussed by his colleagues, come with their own risks, including the possibility that the public might not think the Fed will keep up its end of the bargain and keep prices in line with its target growth.

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt in New York; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Source: OANN

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South Carolina police arrest alleged serial rapist after more than 20 years at large

A South Carolina man accused of raping 12 women between 1995 and 2003 was arrested Tuesday, police said.

Gregory Frye, 52, was hit with “one count of burglary, first-degree kidnapping and criminal sexual conduct” with more charges likely to come, the Spartanburg Police Department said. About six months ago, authorities started to re-investigate the cases, which led them to collect new DNA samples and re-interview victims.

"Investigators from both agencies worked tirelessly reviewing all of the old cases, re-interviewing victims, identifying potential family members of possible suspects, collecting new DNA samples, and sending that evidence to the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED) for analysis," the department said in a statement. "We received notification from SLED last week that through their analysis, a suspect with a matching DNA profile had been identified."

REPORT ON PASTOR COUPLE'S SPENDING PROMPT ALLY'S WARNING TO NEWSPAPER: 'I CUT PEOPLE'

The attacks all happened in the early morning hours at apartment complexes in Spartanburg County. One woman said she was attacked twice. The victims were described as white women who were ages 14 to 51 years old, ABC News reported. Authorities said it was possible there were more than 12 victims.

Frye lived and worked in the area “over the years,” ABC News reported.

"I can't imagine how some of the victims must have felt knowing that it took this long," Spartanburg County Sheriff Chuck Wright said Tuesday. "Prayers have been answered, I just want you to know that. There's been a lot of people praying that we'd catch a break and we did. And not only did we catch a break, we ran with it."

SOUTH CAROLINA GIRL, 10, WHO DIED AFTER FIGHT AT SCHOOL TOOK NO SERIOUS PHYSICAL HITS, STATE SENATOR SAYS

Frye is being held at the Spartanburg County Detention Center. It was not immediately clear if he had an attorney.

"This is just a great day to know we got at least one person that is going to be held accountable for a reign of terror that he's caused for these victims," Wright said. "These victims are stronger than that and they are really inspirational."

Source: Fox News National

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NSA Bolton: 'We Don't Have Any Illusions' on North Korea

Amid reports from "commercial" satellite images North Korea is rebuilding nuclear weapons testing sites and planning to test a ballistic missile, National Security Adviser John Bolton demurred the knowledge of "experts and pundits" is more advanced than that of the U.S. government.

The U.S. knows the score, knows the "mistakes of prior administrations" with North Korea, is working to make real progress, and finally, "the leverage is on our side right now," Bolton told ABC's "This Week."

"The president has been very clear he is not going to make the mistakes of prior administrations, and one of the mistakes of prior administrations was assuming the North Koreans would automatically comply when they undertake obligations," Bolton told host Martha Raddatz. "The North Koreans, for example, have pledged to give up their nuclear weapons program at least five separate times, beginning in 1992 with the joint North-South Denuclearization Agreement. They never seem to get around to it, though, so that's one reason why we pay particular attention to what North Korea is doing all the time.

"We see exactly what they're doing now. We see it unblinkingly, and we don't have any illusions about what their capabilities are."

Another test of a ballistic missile would be a deal-breaker from what President Donald Trump and North Korea Chairman Kim Jong Un have established in two prior summits – firsts for American leadership amid years of denuclearization efforts.

"As the president said, he'd be pretty disappointed if Kim Jong Un went ahead and did something like that," Bolton said of a feared missile test after a year of none. "The president said repeatedly he feels the absence of nuclear tests, the absence of ballistic missile launches is a positive sign, and he's used that really as a part of his effort to persuade Kim Jong Un that he has to go for what the president called 'The Big Deal: Complete Denuclearization.'"

The fact President has to walk away from the most recent summit with Kim should not be a cause for alarm, nor surprising, Bolton added.

"Nothing in the proliferation game surprises me anymore," he said. "I think Kim Jong Un has a very clear idea where the president stands, what the objectives the president is trying to achieve are.

"It's why the decision to walk away in a friendly way, as the president put it, from the Hanoi Summit was important for Kim Jong Un to understand the president – despite what a lot of the experts and pundits say – is not under pressure to make any deal.

"He wants to make the right deal, and he described it to Kim Jong Un at the Hanoi meeting."

Bolton concluded President Trump has worked to gain leverage on the long failed hope of North Korean denuclearization.

"The historical lesson is time is inevitably on the side of the proliferator in the long run," he said. "Right now I think it's the president's judgment, and I think it's correct, that the economic leverage that we have because of the sanctions puts the pressure on North Korea.

"Now it's one reason why all of the pundits and all of the experts predicting a deal in Hanoi were wrong, because the leverage is on our side right now, not on North Korea's."

Source: NewsMax Politics

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“Outdated laws” need fixing to deal with the surge in illegal immigrant families crossing the U.S. border with Mexico, a top Border Patrol official said Friday.

Migrant families face no consequences if apprehended trying to cross the border illegally under present law, Border Patrol chief of Operations Brian Hastings claimed during an appearance on “Fox & Friends.”

“We need a change in the current outdated laws that we’re dealing with for this current demographic and this crisis that we have,” he said.

Hastings said as of Thursday there have been 440,000 apprehensions along the southwest border. There were 396,000 apprehensions all of last year.

SOUTHERN BORDER AT ‘BREAKING POINT’ AFTER MORE THAN 76,000 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TRIED CROSSING IN FEBRUARY, OFFICIALS SAY

And those numbers continue to rise, he said.

Historically 70 to 90 percent of apprehensions at the border were quickly returned to Mexico, Hastings said.

Now, 83 percent of those apprehended have come from the Central American northern triangle which includes Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, and of those 63 percent are “family units” and children who cannot be returned, he said.

“There are no consequences that we can apply to this group currently,” Hastings said. “We’re overwhelmed. If you look at agents there doing a tremendous job trying to deal with the flow.”

The law dictates children have to be released after 20 days of detention.

FLORIDA SHERIFF ON BORDER CRISIS AFTER MAJOR DRUG BUST: ‘IT MAKES ME ABSOLUTELY CRAZY’

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., says that has forced immigration officials to release entire families because “you don’t want to separate families.”

Recently, he said he is drafting legislation that would allow children to be detained for more than 20 days.

Hastings said agents are frustrated with the situation but are doing the best they can with the resources they have.

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“Up to 40 percent of our agents are processing at any given time,” he said. “That should say that in and of itself is pulling from those border security resources.”

Source: Fox News National

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President Trump on Friday blasted liberal billionaire activist Tom Steyer for his continued push to impeach Trump — with Trump claiming Steyer is “trying to remain relevant” and doesn’t have the “guts” to run for the White House himself.

“Weirdo Tom Steyer, who didn’t have the ‘guts’ or money to run for President, is still trying to remain relevant by putting himself on ads begging for impeachment,” the president tweeted. “He doesn’t mention the fact that mine is perhaps the most successful first 2 year presidency in history & NO C OR O! [Collusion or Obstruction]”

TRUMP IMPEACHMENT BACKERS NOT GIVING UP AFTER MUELLER REPORT

Trump and his allies have pointed to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia report’s conclusions that there was no evidence of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign and its decision not to make a conclusion on obstruction of justice as a vindication for the president.

But some Democrats and left-wing activists have pointed to the instances of possible obstruction of justice that the investigation looked into as proof of the need for more investigations or even impeachment proceedings.

ELIZABETH WARREN DOUBLES DOWN ON TRUMP IMPEACHMENT PUSH, SAYS IT’S ‘BIGGER THAN POLITICS’

Steyer has been one of the leaders backing a push to impeach Trump and founded “Need to Impeach” and has kept up that push since the report’s release. He announced on Thursday that he was calling on Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to support impeachment proceedings.

On Friday he responded to Trump’s tweet, calling him “angry and scared.”

“I know you want it all to go away. But for the sake of the country you must face your transgressions. Rage away, but that anger doesn’t matter,” he said in a tweet. The truth and the people will prevail.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Impeachment hearings have been backed by a number of House Democrats, as well as 2020 presidential hopefuls Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Kamala Harris, D-Calif. However, Pelosi has long been skeptical of impeachment proceedings against Trump.

“I’m not for impeachment,” Pelosi told The Washington Post in an interview last month. “Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path, because it divides the country. And he’s just not worth it.”

Source: Fox News Politics

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A Florida measure that would ban sanctuary cities is set for a vote Friday in the state’s Senate after clearing its first hurdle earlier this week.

The bill would effectively make it against the law for Florida’s police departments to refuse to cooperate with federal immigration officials.

“The Governor may initiate judicial proceedings in the name of the state against such officers to enforce compliance,” a draft version of the Senate bill reads.

A House version of the bill, which passed by a 69-47 vote Wednesday, adds that non-complying officials could be suspended or removed from office and face fines of up to $5,000 per day. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to sign off on the measure, although it’s not clear which version.

FLORIDA MAY SEND A BIG MESSAGE TO SANCTUARY CITIES

Florida Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith (D-Orlando), during a press conference at the Florida Capitol in Tallahassee, speaks out against bills in the House and Senate that would ban sanctuary cities in the state.

Florida Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith (D-Orlando), during a press conference at the Florida Capitol in Tallahassee, speaks out against bills in the House and Senate that would ban sanctuary cities in the state. (AP)

LAWRENCE JONES: NEEDLES, DRUG USE AND HUMAN WASTE ARE THE NEW NORMAL IN SAN FRANCISCO

Florida is home to 775,000 illegal immigrants out of 10.7 million present in the United States, ranking the state third among all states.

Nine states — Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas — already have enacted state laws requiring law enforcement to comply with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Florida doesn’t have sanctuary cities like the ones in California and other states. But Republican lawmakers say a handful of their municipalities — including Orlando and West Palm Beach – are acting as “pseudo-sanctuary” cities, because they prevent law enforcement officials from asking about immigration status when they make arrests.

“There are still people here in the state of Florida, police chiefs that are just refusing to contact ICE, refusing to detain somebody that they know is here illegally,” Florida Republican Rep. Blaise Ingoglia said earlier this month. “So while the actual county municipality doesn’t have an actual adopted policy, they still have people in power within their sheriff’s department or police department that refuse to do it anyway.”

Florida’s Democratic Party has blasted the anti-Sanctuary measures, while the Miami-Dade Police Department says it should be up to federal authorities to handle immigration-related matters.

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“House Republicans today sold out their communities to Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis by passing this xenophobic and discriminatory bill,” the state’s Democratic Party said Wednesday after the House passed their version of the bill. “It’s abhorrent that Republican members who represent immigrant communities are now turning their backs on their constituents and jeopardizing their safety.

“Florida has long stood as a beacon for immigrant communities — and today Republicans did the best they could to destroy that reputation,” they added.

Fox News’ Elina Shirazi contributed to this report.

Source: Fox News National

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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The Amish population in Pennsylvania’s Lancaster County is continuing to grow each year, despite the encroachment of urban sprawl on their communities.

The U.S. Census Bureau says the county added about 2,500 people in 2018. LNP reports that about 1,000 of them were Amish.

Elizabethtown College researchers say Lancaster County’s Amish population reached 33,143 in 2018, up 3.2% from the previous year.

The Amish accounted for about 41% of the county’s overall population growth last year.

Some experts are concerned that a planned 75-acre (30-hectare) housing and commercial project will make it more difficult for the county to accommodate the Amish.

Donald Kraybill, an authority on Amish culture, told Manheim Township commissioners this week that some in the community are worried about the development and the increased traffic it would bring.

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Information from: LNP, http://lancasteronline.com

Source: Fox News National

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