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UK watchdog warns of market disruption after a hard Brexit

FILE PHOTO: Signage is seen outside the entrance of the London Stock Exchange in London
FILE PHOTO: Signage is seen outside the entrance of the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain. Aug 23, 2018. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls/File Photo

February 27, 2019

LONDON (Reuters) – Preparations made so far are no guarantee markets won’t be disrupted if there is a no-deal Brexit, Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority said on Wednesday.

FCA Chief Executive Andrew Bailey told a House of Lords committee that he could give no assurance there would not be market disruption if Britain crashes out of the European Union next month with no transition deal.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29 but has no agreement with Brussels that would include a business-as-usual transition agreement.

Britain and the EU have taken steps to avert dislocation in markets, but Bailey said work remained to be done to mitigate risks from uncleared cross-border derivatives and exchange of data.

But unlike Britain, Brussels has decided there is no need for EU-wide action on uncleared derivatives, leaving it to individual states to take measures, which some have.

“Those measures are not the same. Some are more robust than others … It’s helpful in term of reducing the cliff edge,” Bailey told a House of Lords committee on EU affairs.

Brussels was unwilling to go as far as Britain in taking steps to avoid disruption to markets from any hard Brexit partly because it wanted to see a transfer of financial services activity from Britain to the continent, he added.

A hard Brexit also risk disrupts the flow of data between financial firms in Britain and the EU, he said.

The FCA has told financial-services firms in the past 24 hours they need to put in place contingency measures, such as clauses in contracts, as a workaround to avoid disruption in data flows, Bailey said.

(Reporting by Huw Jones; editing by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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West Virginia House tables bill that led to second teacher strike in a year

The bill that closed schools in West Virginia as teachers went on strike was tabled by state lawmakers only hours after the protest began.

Teachers in West Virginia went on strike Tuesday in response to a new bill they believed was retaliation against their nine-day strike last February, which launched a movement of teachers’ union strikes across the country over the last year.

Public schools in all but one of the state’s 55 counties had been closed on Tuesday while hundreds of teachers’ union members picketed at the state capitol.

OAKLAND TEACHERS ANNOUNCE STRIKE OVER PAY, CLASS SIZE

The complex bill, which included a provision to create the state’s first charter schools and allow for private school vouchers, was quickly killed by the West Virginia House of Delegates. The House voted 53-45 to table the bill indefinitely and the unions said they would meet with their members before they decide whether to take further action, including ending the strike.

American Federation of Teachers' West Virginia chapter President Fred Albert said "it was very clear today that the House heard our voice."

Senate President Mitch Carmichael said he was disappointed by the House's vote.

"Today the champions of the status quo won," Carmichael added. "But that will not stop progress. They're on the wrong side of history. Other states are moving forward. It's a marker in the process of education reform. It's not the end. The students, parents and teachers lost."

Why were teachers protesting the bill?

Teachers, students and supporters protested outside of Hurricane High School in Putnam County, West Virginia on Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2019. 

Teachers, students and supporters protested outside of Hurricane High School in Putnam County, West Virginia on Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2019.  (AP)

The unions complained lawmakers never asked for their insight into the bill that would have overhauled West Virginia’s educational system.

One sticking point has been a provision to create the state's first charter schools, which the unions believe would erode traditional public education but bill advocates say would give parents more school choices. Charter school laws have been enacted in 43 other states and Washington, D.C.

The Senate version would have allowed for up to seven charter schools statewide and provide for up to 1,000 education savings accounts for parents to pay for private school. The accounts would be for special-needs students and those who have been bullied.

DENVER TEACHER STRIKE REVEALS US DIVIDE OVER BONUS PAY

The House version did not call for such savings accounts and would limit charter schools to one each in Cabell and Kanawha counties.

Before the House vote, Republican Gov. Jim Justice had said he would veto the bill if it included the savings accounts and more than two charter schools. He was critical of how the Senate handled the legislation.

What were West Virginia teachers protesting last year?

Almost exactly a year ago, teachers in West Virginia went on strike after the governor signed a 2 percent pay raise for the next year. West Virginia teachers were among the lowest-paid in the country and hadn't seen a salary increase in four years.

After nine days of picketing and protesting, which left 277,000 students out of school, the House of Delegates approved a 5 percent increase.

After the February 2018 protests, teachers in Arizona, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Washington state, Los Angeles and Denver followed suit. The strike in Los Angeles ended in January and the protest in Denver ended last week.

Teachers in Oakland, California, have authorized a strike starting Thursday over class sizes, counselor and nurse staffing and raises.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: Fox News National

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Commerzbank stake sale would cost German taxpayers billions of euros

FILE PHOTO: Outside view of the Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank headquarters in Frankfurt
FILE PHOTO: Outside view of the Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, March 18, 2019. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo

April 3, 2019

By Holger Hansen

BERLIN (Reuters) – German taxpayers would lose billions of euros if the state sold its stake in Commerzbank ahead of a possible merger with Deutsche Bank, a government document showed, highlighting the risks of government involvement in the sector.

Berlin owns 15.6 percent in Commerzbank after a bailout a decade ago, and lawmakers have called on Finance Minister Olaf Scholz to get rid of the stake to avoid future risks for the budget if Commerzbank should merge with its larger rival.

Deutsche and Commerzbank said last month that they were in talks to merge.

In an answer to a parliamentary request seen by Reuters, the Finance Ministry said that the Commerzbank share price, or the price offered in any takeover deal, would have to be some 26 euros to avoid a loss for the state.

The Commerzbank shares are currently worth some 7 euros.

Lisa Paus, budget lawmaker of the opposition Greens, said the Finance Ministry’s answers showed that the government’s loss currently stands at 3.7 billion euros ($4.16 billion), though it is unrealized.

“The bailout of banks has cost German taxpayers enormous sums of money in the past. Whoever believes that this is over now, is horribly mistaken,” Paus said.

“If the next big crisis hits, Deutsche Bank could turn into the next billion-euros grave for German taxpayers’ money,” Paus said, adding that she was against the merger.

Asked if the government had any plans to sell its Commerzbank stake in case of a merger, Finance Ministry official Bettina Hagedorn said that the government would not participate in any speculation regarding the outcome of the still ongoing merger talks between both banks, according to the document.

Scholz and his deputy Joerg Kukies are widely seen as having pushed behind the scenes for a merger between Deutsche and Commerzbank. But since both banks announced their merger talks, Scholz has repeatedly played down the government’s role.

The German government has been worried about Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, which has struggled to generate sustainable profits since the 2008 financial crisis.

Deutsche is trying to turn itself around under new leadership, but has faced hurdles such as allegations of money laundering and failed stress tests.

(Reporting by Holger Hansen; Writing by Michael Nienaber; Editing by Paul Carrel)

Source: OANN

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Retired Pope Benedict weighs in Catholic Church sex abuse scandals, blames it on swinging 60s

Absence of God, the sexual revolution of the swinging ‘60s and the formation of “homosexual cliques” in seminaries are to blame for the Catholic Church’s rampant sex abuse scandals, retired Pope Benedict XVI has said.

In 6,000-word essay – published Thursday in the German monthly Klerusblatt, the Catholic News Agency and in other conservative media – the former pontiff tranced the start of the clergy abuse to when sex began to appear in films in his native Bavaria.

He also blamed the crisis on failures of moral theology in that era and slammed church laws in place that gave protection to priests accused of abuse.

RETIRED POPE BENEDICT SAYS HE IS IN LAST PHASE OF LIFE, ON 'PILGRIMAGE HOME'

“Why did pedophilia reach such proportions? Ultimate, the reason is the absence of God,” Benedict wrote. “Perhaps it is worth mentioning that in not a few seminaries, students caught reading my books were considered unsuitable for the priesthood. My books were hidden away, like bad literature, and only read under the desk.”

The conservative theologian said that during the 1980s and 1990s, “the right to a defense [for priests] was so broad as to make a conviction nearly impossible.”

As Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, Benedict spearheaded reforms of those laws in 2001 to make it easier to remove priests who abused children. Benedict took a hard line against clerical sex abuse as the Vatican's conservative doctrine chief, and later as pope, defrocking hundreds of priests accused of raping and molesting children.

POPE FRANCIS KISSES SHOES OF SUDANESE LEADERS IN PLEA FOR PEACE

Benedict’s essay was immediately criticized as “catastrophically irresponsible” because it conflicts with efforts by his successor, Pope Francis, to lead the church out of the sex abuse crisis.

Benedict, who retired in 2013 and turns 92 next week, also blamed the scandal on a clerical culture in the church that raises priests above worshippers.

The essay was criticized by church historians including Christopher Bellitto, who questioned if Benedict was being manipulated by others. He said the essay omitted the critical conclusions that arose from the pope's February sex abuse summit in Rome, including that "abusers were priests along the ideological spectrum, that the abuse predated the 1960s, that it is a global and not simply Western problem, that homosexuality is not the issue in pedophilia."

"It is catastrophically irresponsible, because it creates a counter-narrative to how Francis is trying to move ahead based on the 2019 summit," Bellitto told The Associated Press in an email. "The essay essentially ignores what we learned there."

POPE VOWS TO CONFRONT CLERGY SEX ABUSERS, PREDATORS WITH 'WRATH OF GOD'

Villanova University theologian Massimo Faggioli called the essay a thin analysis that omitted key cases that began well before the 1960s.

“If a pope emeritus decides to stay silent, it's one thing and can be defended. But speaking and telling a tiny part and a very personal version of the story, it's hard to defend,” he said on Twitter. “Everything we know in the global history of the Catholic abuse crisis makes Benedict XVI's take published yesterday very thin or worse: a caricature of what happened during in the Catholic Church during the post-Vatican II period -- with all its ingenuities and some tragic mistakes."

Meanwhile, the essay was applauded by some on the right. Writing in The Catholic Herald, Chat Pecknold praised the intervention as a necessary word from "the voice of a father" that accurately identified an absence of God as the reason for the crisis.

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"I suspect that after all the studies are done after the review boards are formed, cases heard, after new protocols and safeguards are in place, Benedict's answer will be the one which endures," he wrote. "What will be remembered as the seed of renewal, as the root of restoration, is precisely Benedict's counsel that we turn our faces back to Christ who is the perfect image of the Father's love."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: Fox News World

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Flyers prevail in Leafs’ first shootout of season

NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers
Mar 27, 2019; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart (79) celebrates after making a save against Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (29) to win the game during a shootout at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

March 28, 2019

Sean Couturier scored in the fifth round of a shootout to lift the host Philadelphia Flyers past the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4 on Wednesday.

Flyers goaltender Carter Hart, who made 38 saves through regulation and overtime, stopped William Nylander’s fifth-round attempt to preserve the win. Couturier had the only successful shootout attempt among the 10 skaters who participated.

Travis Konecny, Radko Gudas, Couturier and Ryan Hartman each scored in regulation for the Flyers, who remained mathematically alive in the race for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Travis Sanheim and Scott Laughton each had two assists.

The Flyers snapped their three-game home losing streak.

Connor Brown and Auston Matthews each scored a goal and had an assist in regulation for the Maple Leafs, who participated in a shootout for the first time this season. Nazem Kadri and Nylander added one goal apiece.

Maple Leafs goaltender Frederik Andersen made 40 saves.

Brown gave the Maple Leafs a 1-0 lead at 5:03 of the first period. The puck was jarred loose, and Tyler Ennis sent a backhand pass to Brown, who tapped it into a vacated net.

The Maple Leafs went ahead 2-0 at 12:02 of the first when Kadri scored his 16th goal.

Philadelphia sliced the deficit in half at 3:39 of the second when Konecny collected his 23rd goal. Konecny snapped his eight-game goalless streak.

Gudas later tied the game at 2 with a nifty wrist shot at 8:15 of the middle period for his fourth goal of the season. The play developed after the Maple Leafs turned the puck over in their own zone.

The Flyers took a 3-2 advantage when Couturier recorded his career-best 32nd goal at 15:46 of the second. Couturier had 31 goals last season.

Toronto equalized at 3 at 1:43 of the third period on an unassisted goal by Matthews.

Soon after a power play was killed off, Hartman pursued a bouncing puck and sent it past Andersen for a 4-3 Flyers lead at 9:00 of the third.

The Flyers later turned the puck over, and Nylander tied the game at 4 at 11:33 of the final period.

Sanheim appeared to have scored the winner with 2:26 left in overtime, but the goal was disallowed since the whistle had blown.

–Field Level Media

Source: OANN

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Bahrain revokes citizenships, sentences 69 to life in prison

A Bahraini court has issued verdicts in a mass trial, sentencing 69 people to life in prison and revoking the citizenship of 138 defendants on terrorism-related charges.

The public prosecutor's office said on Tuesday that 70 others were sentenced to between 3 years and 10 years imprisonment. Close to 100 suspects were fined roughly $265,000 each.

The defendants, of which 109 are in custody and 60 were tried in absentia, can appeal.

Charges against the group include forming a terrorist cell inside Bahrain with help from Iran and launching terrorist attacks. The group was labeled as "Hezbollah Bahrain."

The Europe-based Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy says this brings to total 990 people ordered stripped of their nationality since 2012, including political activists speaking out about human rights abuses.

Source: Fox News World

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The Arrest Of Assange: Justice Or The End Of Independent Journalism?

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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