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Malinvestment: Have We Learned Anything Since the Last Recession?

A growing number of economists are predicting the current economic boom will turn to bust in 2019.

When recession does come, will economists simply call for more of the same — namely endless government spending?

After all, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, most economists told us the problem was the private sector was not spending and investing enough. So, we were told, government must step in and make up the difference with deficit spending to get “idle resources” — like capital goods and labor — back to work.

But what should the government be spending on? Apparently, anything.

This is not an exaggeration. For example, noted Cal-Berkeley economist Brad DeLong insisted in 2009 “At this point, anything that boosts the government’s deficit over the next two years passes the benefit-cost test — anything at all.”

Such thinking reveals one of fatal flaws of mainstream economics: the idea that all the economy is one big homogeneous blob. As Friedrich Hayek put it, “Mr. Keynes’ aggregates conceal the most fundamental mechanisms of change.”

The Problem of Malinvestment

During the 2002-2007 housing boom, significant amounts of capital and labor were organized in very specific locations, combinations and uses at multiple stages of production to produce more houses to satisfy consumer demands. This meant more construction workers employed building homes in growing communities, and more mortgage brokers and investment bankers to finance the boom. It also meant more inputs such as wood, nails, concrete and glass directed toward homebuilding; which in turn required more lumber processing, steel production, and so on.

When the housing bubble burst, millions of these workers became unemployed, and significant portions of the structures of production that were expanded to support the bubble became idle as well. The bursting of the bubble then sent a ripple effect permeating through other sectors of the economy, creating yet more unemployed resources.

For the economy to recover, a major reallocation of these idle workers and resources needed to occur. Idle workers and capital goods needed to be reshuffled to those entrepreneurs ready and willing to employ them in an attempt to meet changing consumer demands.

But this process is not short nor easy. The unemployed workers have specific skills and experience, and many may need training to acquire new skills to meet the changing labor market. Some may be unwilling to move to take new opportunities. How is a laid off bricklayer supposed to find work in a market demanding graphic designers and coders?

The capital goods no longer being utilized likewise have specific uses, and often need specific complementary goods to fulfill their role in the production process. Some of them may end up being liquidated because no entrepreneurs have a need for them. There simply may be too many bulldozers and cement mixers needed given the now smaller, post-bubble construction industry.

Recession: A Process of Re-allocating Malinvested Resources

This process of reshuffling explains the strength and duration of the recession.

Keynesian-inspired economists and politicians, unfortunately, view the idle capital and labor only in the aggregate. Their grand “stimulus” plans involve nothing more nuanced than coaxing consumer spending and business investment into spending more money on anything, anytime, anywhere.

As economic historian Robert Higgs described , “If someone, whatever his skills, preferences, or location, is unemployed, then, in this framework of thought, we may expect to put him back to work by increasing aggregate demand, regardless of what we happen to spend the money for, whether it be cosmetics or computers.”

Simply force-feeding new money into the economy will be ineffective because it takes no account of the true reason why the resources are idle in the first place.

The billions of dollars worth of public works projects, for instance, will mostly draw from labor and capital actively engaged in the private sector and fail to employ idle resources. Say, for instance, Chicago receives millions to build a new road. Can anyone honestly say for certain that the road construction will only employ workers and other inputs sitting idle in the Chicago area due to the housing bust?

Unemployed bankers and carpenters won’t be of much help laying pavement. Rather, the road project will undoubtedly divert labor and machinery actively engaged in private sector projects in the region. In the end, fewer resources will be available for productive, private sector use because they are tied up in government stimulus projects.

Meanwhile, the majority of idle workers and equipment will continue to sit idle.

Moreover, billions of available funds in the capital investment markets will be tied up by government projects; further drying up private investment opportunities.

Government stimulus spending may also artificially inflate the prices of resources, pricing them out of reach for entrepreneurs needing low-priced inputs to attract their investment during uncertain recessionary conditions. The very resources needed to generate recovery will be unavailable, having been diverted to government projects.

The best policy is for government to get out of the way and allow the reallocation of resources to occur unhampered. Government spending can only distort and prolong this process, most likely producing harmful inflationary pressure on prices along the way.

Will next time be any different?



Top political cartoonist in the world, Ben Garrison, has been attacked by the left for being so effective in his support for liberty, capitalism and President Trump.

Source: InfoWars

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Fed Bureaucrats’ War Against Cowboys, Indians & Their Families

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Source: InfoWars

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Trump: I Appreciate Pelosi's 'Statement Against Impeachment'

President Donald Trump and Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi agree: He shouldn't be impeached.

Trump tweeted Wednesday he greatly appreciates Pelosi's "statement against impeachment" but says "everyone must remember the minor fact that I never did anything wrong." Trump claimed his first years in office have been "the most successful first two years in history" and asks how anyone with such a record can be removed from office when "impeachment is for 'high crimes and misdemeanors'?"

Special counsel Robert Mueller is examining whether Trump's campaign colluded with Russia and whether Trump tried to obstruct the investigation. Trump insists "there was no collusion."

Pelosi told The Washington Post this week she's not for impeachment, at least for now, saying the Republican president is "just not worth it" without overwhelming support for his removal.

Source: NewsMax Politics

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Karl Rove says it’s a ‘mistake’ for Democrats to pursue obstruction concerns in Mueller report

Fox News political contributor Karl Rove predicted Thursday that some Democratic politicians would make a "mistake" by using special counsel Robert Mueller's report to continue attacking President Donald Trump and pursuing investigations into his conduct.

His comments came just before House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., held a press conference at which he leaned on the report's concerns regarding 10 items related to potential obstruction of justice. Rove told Fox News host Dana Perino on "The Daily Briefing" that those items gave Democrats "fodder" to "continue to hammer the president."

The report itself did not exonerate Trump on obstruction of justice, but both Attorney General William Barr and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein determined the report lacked sufficient evidence to level formal charges.

Rove also predicted that while some Democrats would try to highlight the obstruction concerns before the 2020 presidential elections, other, "wise" politicians would focus on other issues.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM MUELLER'S REPORT ON RUSSIA INVESTIGATION

"I wouldn't be surprised in the next week or two — yeah, you're going to have the hot dogs and the lunatics and the wannabe's like [Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif.,] say 'by God, impeach,'" Rove said.

He added that politicians like 2020 candidate and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., would back away from "trashing Trump" and recognize it as a losing strategy. Rove said that based on the report, "we're likely to see little impact on the president's numbers and his opposition's numbers."

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Democrats, Rove warned, could go "over-the-top" and act like congressional Republicans who pushed for former President Bill Clinton's impeachment in 1998.

"[Democrats] could do exactly what Republicans did in 1998 and that is cause a lot of the American people to say, 'you know what, too much, you're over-the-top, you're out of control.'"

Source: Fox News Politics

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French finance minister cuts 2019 growth forecast to 1.4 percent

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire attends the questions to the government session at the National Assembly in Paris
FILE PHOTO: French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire attends the questions to the government session at the National Assembly in Paris, France, November 27, 2018. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

March 19, 2019

PARIS (Reuters) – The French economy should grow about 1.4 percent this year, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Tuesday, revising down the forecast of 1.7 percent growth in this year’s budget.

Le Maire told the Senate’s law and economic affairs commissions that the yellow vest anti-government unrest had in the short-term trimmed 0.2 percentage points off growth in 2018 and 2019.

“Growth should be about 1.4 percent in 2019, a number that I will confirm when the stability program is presented,” Le Maire told senators in a hearing on the impact of the protests.

The government usually updates its growth estimate in April when it sends its annual stability program to the European Commission.

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas and Yann Le Guernigou; Editing by Bate Felix)

Source: OANN

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Fox News’ Steve Harrigan reflects on Afghanistan, America’s longest war

As the war in Afghanistan grinds on and peace negotiations between the United States and Taliban leaders continue, Fox News has been covering the conflict from every angle since the beginning.

Launched by George W. Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks that killed nearly 3,000 Americans, the war in Afghanistan, known as Operation Enduring Freedom, had Al Qaeda and the Taliban as its original targets.

By 2011, there were about 140,000 foreign troops serving in Afghanistan, although that number has now dropped significantly. There are still 14,000 American troops serving in Afghanistan.

One of the initial goals, capturing 9/11 terrorist mastermind Usama bin Laden, proved to be extremely challenging.

US-TALIBAN PEACE DEAL WOULD DISHONOR 9/11 VICTIMS AND TROOPS WHO LOST LIVES, SENIOR AFGHAN OFFICIAL SAYS

Although the first democratic elections in Afghanistan since the Taliban's fall were held in October 2004, the fighting continued as the Taliban regrouped and changed its tactics.

Fox News correspondent Steve Harrigan, who will be reporting from Afghanistan this week, interviewed Hamid Karzai, who would go on to serve as the country's president for a decade: "[Bin Laden's] a criminal. He's killed thousands of our people. He's ruined our lives. If we catch him, he will be given over to international justice."

An Afghan security force stand guard at the site a day after an a suicide attack near the Bagram Air Base, north of Kabul, Afghanistan, Tuesday, April 9, 2019. Three American service members and a U.S. contractor were killed when their convoy hit a roadside bomb on Monday near the main U.S. base in Afghanistan, the U.S. forces said. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)

An Afghan security force stand guard at the site a day after an a suicide attack near the Bagram Air Base, north of Kabul, Afghanistan, Tuesday, April 9, 2019. Three American service members and a U.S. contractor were killed when their convoy hit a roadside bomb on Monday near the main U.S. base in Afghanistan, the U.S. forces said. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)

"Yes, the enemy will attack people in the government, yes they'll try to figure out how to get suicide car bombs in here, yes they'll try to increase their ability to move against the border outposts, but nowhere in any of this can they derail the process," former U.S. Central Command commander John Abizaid told Fox News' Bret Baier before the 2004 election.

After President Obama was elected in 2008, he pushed to add resources to parts of Afghanistan where American casualties were increasing. The U.S. presence in the country peaked at 100,000 when the war was in its 10th year. Although the U.S. and NATO forces formally ended their combat missions in Afghanistan on December 28, 2014, there have been numerous deadly incidents since then.

Three U.S. Marines were killed on Monday in an IED blast while in a convoy near Bagram Airfield. The first Marines killed in combat in over three years, they were from the 25th Marine Regiment, 4th Marine Division, Marine Forces Reserve: Staff Sgt. Christopher Slutman, 43, Cpl. Robert A. Hendriks, 25, Sgt. Benjamin S. Hines, 31.

3 MARINES KILLED IN AFGHANISTAN IDENTIFIED, INCLUDED FDNY FIREFIGHTER

U.S. soldiers, working with Afghan forces, are now battling a resurgent Taliban in some parts of the war-torn country and an Islamic State affiliate that has tried to expand its footprint.

The prospects for a peace deal are at a difficult stage.

“It would be a shame if a deal was made with the terrorists who killed more than 5,400 Americans, and if they were given control of the lives of the Afghan people. That would be a win for those terrorists,” Hamdullah Mohib, the National Security Adviser of Afghanistan (NSA) who previously served as the Ambassador to the United States, told Fox News on a recent visit to the U.N. Mission in New York. “It would also dishonor the one million Americans who have served in Afghanistan.”

Fox News' Hollie McKay and Brie Stimson contributed to this report. 

Source: Fox News World

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Watch Live: Norte Dame Cathedral Burning to the Ground is France’s 9/11

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Source: InfoWars

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Alex Jones – Info Wars

12:00 pm 4:00 pm



Sri Lanka's former defense secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa greets his supporters after his return from the United States, in Katunayake
Sri Lanka’s former defense secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa greets his supporters after his return from the United States, in Katunayake, Sri Lanka April 12, 2019. REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte

April 26, 2019

By Sanjeev Miglani and Shihar Aneez

COLOMBO (Reuters) – Sri Lanka’s former wartime defense chief, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, said on Friday he would run for president in elections this year and would stop the spread of Islamist extremism by rebuilding the intelligence service and surveilling citizens.

Gotabaya, as he is popularly known, is the younger brother of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the two led the country to a crushing defeat of separatist Tamil rebels a decade ago after a 26-year civil war.

More than 250 people were killed in bomb attacks on hotels and churches on Easter Sunday that the government has blamed on Islamist militants and that Islamic State has claimed responsibility for.

Gotabaya said the attacks could have been prevented if the island’s current government had not dismantled the intelligence network and extensive surveillance capabilities that he built up during the war and later on.

“Because the government was not prepared, that’s why you see a panic situation,” he said in an interview with Reuters.

Gotabaya said he would be a candidate “100 percent”, firming up months of speculation that he plans to run in the elections, which are due by December.

He was critical of the government’s response to the bombings. Since the attacks, the government has struggled to provide clear information about how they were staged, who was behind them and how serious the threat is from Islamic State to the country.

“Various people are blaming various people, not giving exactly the details as to what happened, even people expect the names, what organization did this, and how they came up to this level, that explanation was not given,” he said.

On Friday, President Maithripala Sirisena said the government led by premier Ranil Wickremesinghe should take responsibility for the attacks and that prior information warning of attacks was not shared with him.

Wickremesinghe said earlier he was not advised about warnings that came from India’s spy service either, presenting a picture of a government still in disarray since the two leaders fell out last October.

Gotabaya is facing lawsuits in the United States, where he is a dual citizen, over his role in the war and afterwards.

The South Africa-based International Truth and Justice Project, in partnership with U.S. law firm Hausfeld, filed a civil case in California this month against Gotabaya on behalf of a Tamil torture survivor.

In a separate case, Ahimsa Wickrematunga, the daughter of murdered investigative editor Lasantha Wickrematunga, filed a complaint for damages in the same U.S. District Court in California for allegedly instigating and authorizing the extrajudicial killing of her father.

Gotabaya said the cases were baseless and only a “little distraction” as he prepared for the election campaign. He said he had asked U.S. authorities to renounce his citizenship and that process was nearly done, clearing the way for his candidature.

‘DISMANTLE THE NETWORKS’

He said that if he won, his immediate focus would to be tackle the threat from radical Islam and to rebuild the security set-up.

“It’s a serious problem, you have to go deep into the groups, dismantle the networks,” he said, adding he would give the military a mandate to collect intelligence from the ground and to mount surveillance of groups turning to extremism.

Gotabaya said that a military intelligence cell he had set up in 2011 of 5,000 people, some of them with Arabic language skills and that was tracking the bent towards extremist ideology some of the Islamist groups were taking in eastern Sri Lanka was disbanded by the current government.

“They did not give priority to national security, there was a mix-up. They were talking about ethnic reconciliation, then they were talking about human rights issues, they were talking about individual freedoms,” he said.

President Sirisena’s government sought to forge reconciliation with minority Tamils and close the wounds of the war and launched investigations into allegations of rights abuse and torture against military officers.

Officials said many of these secret intelligence cells were disbanded because they faced allegations of abuse, including torture and extra judicial killings.

Muslims make up nearly 10 percent of Sri Lanka’s population of 22 million, which is predominantly Buddhist.

(Reporting by Sanjeev Miglani; Editing by Frances Kerry)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington
FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington, U.S., March 27, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

April 26, 2019

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve may lower the interest it pays on excess reserves banks leave with it by 5 basis points at its April 30-May 1 policy meeting in a bid to prevent the federal funds rate from drifting higher, Morgan Stanley analysts said on Friday.

This would mark the third such “technical” adjustment on the interest on excess reserves (IOER) following cuts last June and December.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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In response to the news that the U.S. economy rose 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said that this “prosperity cycle” will continue if President Trump‘s policies stay in place.

Calling the advance in gross domestic product a “blow-out number,” Kudlow told “America’s Newsroom” Friday that it serves as concrete proof Trump’s measures to grow the economy have been successful.

“I’ll just say, Trump’s policies to rebuild the economy, lower taxes, regulations, opening energy, trade reform. Look, this stuff is working,” he said.

“It tells me, among other things, that the prosperity cycle we have entered into is continuing, it is strong. It has legs and momentum and frankly it is going to go on for quite some time,” he continued. “This is the new Trump economy. Some people don’t like that or they don’t agree with that. I respect the differences but I’ll tell you it’s working.”

STUART VARNEY: THANKS TO TRUMP, AMERICANS ARE FEELING BETTER ABOUT THEIR FINANCES

39 MILLION ADULTS CANNOT AFFORD A SUMMER VACATION

Kudlow added that Trump has “ended the war” on business and success, and is rallying for the small business owners of America.

“The president is rebuilding incentives, he is rebuilding confidence, he the rebuilding optimism,” he said. “He is basically saying you should keep more of what you earn. He is basically saying to small businesses we’ll cut the paperwork back and make it easier for you to start a business and prosper.”

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Kudlow said the Trump administration is also working with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders to implement bipartisan deals to ensure the continuation of the GDP’s success.

“If the policies and the principles remain in place — and I believe they will — then I believe this new prosperity expansion cycle is going to go on for a whole bunch of more years,” he said.

Source: Fox News Politics

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Tennis - Australian Open - Women's Singles Final
FILE PHOTO: Tennis – Australian Open – Women’s Singles Final – Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia, January 26, 2019. Japan’s Naomi Osaka attends a news conference after winning her match against Czech Republic’s Petra Kvitova. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – World number one Naomi Osaka came from behind in the final set to beat Croatian Donna Vekic 6-3 4-6 7-6(4) on Friday and move into the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix semi-finals.

Osaka comfortably won the opening set but was tested by the Croatian, who pushed her to the limit in the second and third. The Japanese made 45 unforced errors as she struggles to get to grips with swapping hard courts for clay.

Osaka was visibly frustrated and trailed 5-1 in the final set but she refused to give up and found her rhythm to break Vekic twice and prevent her from serving for the match.

In the tiebreaker, a confident Osaka upped her baseline game and had two early mini breaks before wrapping up the match in two hours and 18 minutes. An infuriated Vekic even smashed her racket after losing the match.

“I told myself I didn’t want to have any regrets here,” Osaka said. “I was stressed out when I went down 1-5… but this (comeback) was pretty good because I don’t play really well on clay.”

Earlier, world number three Petra Kvitova came back from a set down to beat Anastasija Sevastova 2-6 6-2 6-3 and move into the tournament’s semi-finals for the third time in her career.

Sevastova had a dream start, breaking Kvitova twice to take a 3-0 lead as the Czech struggled with her first serve. Kvitova also made a slew of unforced errors, with many of her returns going long.

Sevastova used the full width of the court to get the better of Kvitova, who played on the back foot for much of the first set as the Latvian gave her little time to catch her breath.

However, Kvitova recovered in the second set and she broke Sevastova’s serve when she was 3-2 up, winning 10 straight points to take a 5-2 lead. Sevastova looked shaken and was broken again to give Kvitova the second set.

Kvitova took command in the final set and broke a visibly upset Sevastova to take a 3-1 lead before easing into the semis.

“In the first set I missed almost everything. I was pretty slow and she just couldn’t miss,” Kvitova said. “In the second set it was very important for me to stay on my serve and the chance to break her came.”

Kiki Bertens plays Angelique Kerber later on Friday and Victoria Azarenka faces Anett Kontaveit in the last quarter-final.

(Reporting by Rohith Nair in Bengaluru, editing by Ed Osmond)

Source: OANN

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President Donald Trump says he feels “young” and “vibrant” at age 72 and thinks he can beat 76-year-old Joe Biden “easily.”

A reporter asked Trump at the White House on Friday how old is too old to be president of the United States.

Trump said: “I just feel like a young man. I’m so young. I can’t believe it. … I’m a young vibrant man.”

Then he smiled and said he’s not sure about Democratic presidential contender Biden, the second-oldest contender in the race behind Bernie Sanders.

Trump said: “I look at Joe. I don’t know about him.”

Biden, in an interview on ABC’s “The View,” joked in response that if Trump “looks young and vibrant compared to me, I should probably go home.”

Source: NewsMax Politics

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