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Family says Guatemala candidate arrested in US is innocent

The son of a Guatemalan presidential candidate facing drugs and weapons charges in the U.S. says his father is innocent and is asking lawmakers in the Central American country for an investigation.

Mario Alejandro Estrada Ruano is head of government for the Jalapa department of Guatemala and the son of Mario Estrada Orellana, who was arrested April 17 in Miami.

He says in a statement that the family has doubts about the accusations against the elder Estrada, who allegedly has ties to Mexico's Sinaloa cartel. Estrada is also accused of illicit electoral financing, plotting to kill political rivals and offering to help drug traffickers.

On Wednesday, Guatemala's electoral court annulled his candidacy citing the "notorious" revelations.

Estrada Ruano said Thursday the ruling wouldn't be challenged "although we do not agree."

Source: Fox News World

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This 2020 Candidate Puts His Money on Universal Income

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America needs a new vision of what it means for humans to work. That is the unique message of entrepreneur Andrew Yang, a man who hopes – against all odds – to ride his vision to the White House. Even in a large presidential primary field – and the 2020 roster of legitimate or semi-legitimate contenders is shaping up as the largest in party history – there are Americans who fill out the qualifying forms every four years, only to be completely ignored and then forgotten.

On paper, Andrew Yang is one of those Democratic presidential candidates. But he’s more entertaining than most -- “The opposite of Donald Trump is an Asian man who likes math,” he quips – and he has interesting things to say about the future. Besides, a political neophyte just so happened to win the last presidential election, so it’s possible Yang’s ideas will take him beyond a mere 15 minutes of fame.

A 44-year-old graduate of Brown and Columbia Law, an entrepreneur and former CEO of Venture for America, Yang shares with many of his better-known Democratic opponents support for universal Medicare, addressing climate change, and a reduction in incarceration. But he has primarily differentiated himself with a more radical proposal: Universal Basic Income (UBI).

“Every member of a society gets a certain amount of money, no questions asked, to meet his or her basic needs,” Yang told RealClearPolitics when asked to define it. His proposal, which he calls the “Freedom Dividend,” would give every American $1,000 a month for life once they turn 18.

In one form or another, basic income has been supported by those across the political spectrum, including Martin Luther King Jr. and libertarian Charles Murray, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Wealthy tech leaders such as Mark Zuckerberg and Stewart Butterfield have also expressed support for some kind of basic income. “It’s not left or right, it’s forward,” said Yang.

He has high expectations for his UBI proposal, to which he ascribes near-miraculous powers. Among other benefits, he predicts that it would create millions of jobs, empower women, reduce domestic violence, improve mental health, and reduce hospital visits. Most significantly, he cites it as the answer to a potentially destabilizing crisis looming on the horizon: the coming automation of an unprecedented number of jobs – a fear that the New York Times dubbed the “robot apocalypse.”

“We’re in the third inning of the greatest economic and technological transformation in the history of our country,” said Yang, who adds that after the deregulation of financial services, and the decimation of manufacturing workers, the third inning is the “phasing out of brick-and-mortar retail.”

Next, he says, comes automated cars and trucks. What will people do when “the trucks start driving themselves in the next five to 10 years”? After that, Yang predicts, artificial intelligence risks putting call center workers, bookkeepers, accountants, and attorneys, among others, out of work.

Not everyone is impressed by Yang’s forecast. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment is at 4 percent, a large decrease since 2009, and the labor participation rate is at 63.2 percent, the highest it has been since 2014. As for future job losses due to technology, “I think it’s overstated,” said Mike Tanner, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. The idea that “we’re simply not going to have enough jobs in the future – I don’t believe that.”

While Yang estimates on his website that in the next 12 years one in three American workers is at risk of losing his or her job to new technologies, many economists have significantly less worrisome predictions. Researchers at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimate the risk of job loss at less than 10 percent in the United States. In many cases, according to MIT economist David H. Autor, new technologies do not simply replace jobs, but instead complement work. Technology can also indirectly create new jobs. “The truck driver goes away,” said Tanner, “but somebody is out there programming the automated cars.” 

UBI has advantages over the current welfare system that make it attractive to libertarians and conservatives. The current system involves “huge amounts of complex bureaucracy,” said Tanner. “You could get rid of all that.” Plus, Universal Basic Income is far less paternalistic, he added. Under the current welfare system, people receive support that they can only use for particular kinds of goods. With UBI, recipients would make their own decisions.

But it is unclear whether Yang can muster support from Republicans given that his proposal doesn’t “make any real attempt to get rid of current programs,” said Vijay Menon, a research assistant at the Heritage Foundation. Yang’s version of Universal Basic Income would be layered on top of the current welfare system.

By Yang’s own estimate, his proposal would cost $1.8 trillion annually. Others at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimate that UBI would cost much more — up to $30 trillion to $40 trillion over 10 years. That is more than three-fourths of the entire yearly federal budget. 

The Freedom Dividend would be opt-in, according to Yang, and his cost estimate assumes that a large portion of Americans currently receiving government services simply won’t take basic income – for, under Yang’s proposal, anyone who receives UBI has to give up some other supports, such as food stamps. It will not require an increase in incomes taxes, Yang asserts. Rather, it will be paid for through a new value-added tax on goods and services that businesses produce, new revenues, and cost-savings from other social services.

Another concern is that Universal Basic Income could disincentivize work. Unlike simply getting a check from the government, work gives people dignity, said Menon. “Our policies should be promoting work whenever we can,” he said.

Recent data from Finland, which began a two-year experiment with Universal Basic Income in 2017, seems to support this fear. Findings show that UBI does not have a significant beneficial impact on employment.

But Yang, who believes that soon the vast majority of Americans will be simply unable to work in anything like the current economy, envisions a new mode of working life.   “We have to create an economy that actually does give people paths to structure purpose and fulfillment that may not look like the job of today where they go to an office from 9 to 5.”

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German on trial over death of 5-year-old Yazidi slave girl

A German woman has gone on trial on allegations that as an Islamic State member she allowed a 5-year-old girl she kept with her husband as a slave to die of thirst in Iraq.

The 27-year-old, identified only as Jennifer W. in line with privacy rules, is charged with murder, a war crime and membership in a terrorist organization in the Munich trial that opened Tuesday.

Prosecutors say the woman belonged to the IS "morality police" and she and her husband bought the Yazidi girl as a slave in 2015. The husband chained the girl outdoors as punishment for wetting her mattress and W. allegedly did nothing to prevent her dying.

The girl's mother is a co-plaintiff in the case and her lawyers include Amal Clooney, who wasn't in court Tuesday.

Source: Fox News World

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Terry McAuliffe causes 2020 confusion after sharing meme depicting him and Trump as a crab, alligator

Former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe sparked speculation that he may enter the Democratic primary ahead of the 2020 presidential election, but sparked confusion in the process.

On Thursday, McAuliffe took to Twitter and shared a meme featuring a crab labeled with his name over an alligator labeled as President Trump.

McAuliffe followed that with another tweet showing an old picture of him wrestling an alligator next to a not-so-flattering image of the president.

“If I could wrestle an 8 ft, 280 lb [alligator], I certainly would have no problem with you know who,” McAuliffe said.

Many on Twitter did not see the second tweet, which offered at least some context for the meme. So people had questions for the Virginia Democrat.

Source: Fox News Politics

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Sen. Sanders Supports Voting Rights For Those in Prison

More states should allow people with felony records to vote while they are in prison, presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders said over the weekend, the Des Moines Register reported.

“I think that is absolutely the direction we should go,” Sanders said during a town hall in Muscatine, Iowa, when he was asked if there should be a right to vote from prison. “You’re paying a price, you committed a crime, you’re in jail. That’s bad. But you’re still living in American society and you have a right to vote.”

Currently, only Sanders’ home state of Vermont and Maine allow felons to vote behind bars.

Most states do not allow people to vote while they are in prison, on parole, or on probation, according to Vox.

Two states ban those with felony convictions from voting even after they have finished their prison, parole or probation sentences.

Date from 2016 shows that 6.1 million people were prevented from voting due to a felony conviction, according to The Sentencing Project.

Black Americans are disproportionately impacted, since there are a higher percentage of blacks in prison. Punishments can follow people for the remainder of their lives, making it much more difficult for those with criminal records to regain rights that would give them a better chance to secure a job.

Related Stories:

Source: NewsMax Politics

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Fierce winter storm that hit West reaches California

A winter storm driven that slammed the western U.S. was barreling through California on Tuesday, bringing threats of flooding, avalanches and blinding, blowing snow on roads in the Sierra Nevada.

Heavy rain began falling Monday and the National Weather Service issued flood warnings and flash flood watches for the San Francisco Bay Area and many parts of the Sacramento area into Thursday morning.

The latest storm will be a "marathon rather than a sprint," the weather service predicted.

Some small creeks and streams had flooded and the weather service warned that the Napa and Russian rivers were likely to overflow their banks by Wednesday morning.

However, while some areas could see 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain or more over the next two days — and as much as 12 inches (30.5 centimeters) in some local mountains — the intensity won't be fierce enough to cause devastating mudslides in areas denuded by a string of devastating wildfires, such as Shasta and Lake counties, the weather service said.

Even so, some areas remained on alert. Sonoma County, where some areas were scarred by 2017 wildfires, activated its Emergency Operations Center.

"This is the time to locate your emergency kits and review your evacuation plans with your family," said David Rabbitt, chair of the county Board of Supervisors.

In the Sierra Nevada along the California-Nevada line, forecasters warned of possible whiteout conditions from blowing snow in the high passes. The mountains could see up to 8 feet (2.44 meters) of snow at higher elevations and winds gusting to 140 mph (225 kph) over ridgetops.

"Heavy snow and gale force winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions" into Thursday morning for the Lake Tahoe area, the National Weather Service warned.

Several mountain highways, including Interstate 80 at Donner Summit, were repeatedly closed for short periods Monday because of spinouts or avalanche concerns.

The storm already has barreled through other parts of the West, toppling trucks and trees, triggering power outages and closing roads and schools from Oregon to Montana.

Snow forced flight cancellations at the Portland airport, and prompted a blizzard warning for parts of Montana, where Butte public schools canceled classes Tuesday for the first time in at least 20 years.

Buses were getting stuck, and a superintendent told The Montana Standard that the district's snowplows haven't been able to keep up.

A power outage struck several thousand people in the Reno-Sparks area of Nevada.

The storm is the latest in a string that has dumped record levels of snow and rain this winter.

The culprit is an atmospheric river of moisture coming from north of Hawaii. The phenomenon has become frequent enough that scientists in California are introducing a 1-through-5 scale of intensity for atmospheric rivers, similar to those used to gauge hurricanes.

Source: Fox News National

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Google blocks Chinese app TikTok in India after court order

FILE PHOTO: The logo of TikTok application is seen on a mobile phone screen in this picture illustration taken
FILE PHOTO: The logo of TikTok application is seen on a mobile phone screen in this picture illustration taken February 21, 2019. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/Illustration/File Photo

April 16, 2019

By Aditya Kalra and Sudarshan Varadhan

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Google has blocked access to the hugely popular video app TikTok in India to comply with a state court’s directive to prohibit its downloads, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The move comes hours after a court in southern Tamil Nadu state refused a request by China’s Bytedance Technology to suspend a ban on its TikTok app, putting its future in one of its key markets in doubt.

The state court had on April 3 asked the federal government to ban TikTok, saying it encouraged pornography and made child users vulnerable to sexual predators. Its ruling came after an individual launched a public interest litigation calling for a ban.

The federal government had sent a letter to Apple and Google to abide by the state court’s order, according to an IT ministry official.

The app was still available on Apple’s platforms late on Tuesday, but was no longer available on Google’s Play store in India.

Google said in a statement it does not comment on individual apps but adheres to local laws. Apple did not respond to requests for comment, while TikTok did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Google’s move.

TikTok, which allows users to create and share short videos with special effects, has become hugely popular in India but has been criticized by some politicians who say its content is inappropriate.

It had been downloaded more than 240 million times in India, app analytics firm Sensor Tower said in February. More than 30 million users in India installed it in January 2019, 12 times more than in the same month last year.

Jokes, clips and footage related to India’s thriving movie industry dominate the app’s platform, along with memes and videos in which youngsters, some scantily clad, lip-sync and dance to popular music.

Bytedance challenged the state court’s ban order in India’s Supreme Court last week, saying it went against freedom of speech rights in India.

The top court had referred the case back to the state court, where a judge on Tuesday rejected Bytedance’s request to put the ban order on hold, K. Neelamegam, a lawyer arguing against Bytedance in the case, said.

TikTok earlier said in a statement that it had faith in the Indian judicial system and was “optimistic about an outcome that would be well received by millions” of its users. It did not comment further on the judge’s decision.

The company however welcomed the decision to appoint a senior lawyer to assist the court in upcoming proceedings.

The state court has requested written submissions from Bytedance in the case and has scheduled its next hearing for April 24.

Salman Waris, a technology lawyer at TechLegis Advocates & Solicitors, said the legal action against Bytedance could set a precedent of Indian courts intervening to regulate content on social media and other digital platforms.

In its Supreme Court filing, Bytedance argued that a “very minuscule” proportion of TikTok content was considered inappropriate or obscene.

The company employs more than 250 people in India and had plans for more investment as it expands the business, it said.

(Additional reporting by Sankalp Phartiyal in Mumbai; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani, Susan Fenton and Jan Harvey)

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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