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What if Climate Warriors Put their Money Where their Mouths Are?

The other week, the infamous and much-derided Green New Deal was voted down in the Senate and with it the dreams of a Federal spending party for tackling climate change.

But maybe its advocates have been going about this the wrong way, engaged in political solutions and international treaties such as the Paris Agreement. To anybody with insight into political decision-making — or even a healthy skepticism about the miraculous workings of the political apparatus — trying to navigate such a minefield of special interests and entrenched divisions must have seemed like a fool’s errand. Trying to address externalities and global tragedies of the commons through a political prism might not be the best option.

What if climate activists, striking school children, television pundits, New York Time columnists and others — here affectionately referred to as Climate Warriors — joined forces and, on their own, tried to mitigate the harmful consequences of climate change?

Apparently, climate change induced natural disasters will still be with us even if we ceased emissions tomorrow. As such, we require protection — those least able to literally weather the storm most of all. As Climate Warriors’ preferred route for transforming society — i.e., politics — has faced a setback, perhaps there’s a more voluntary and individual way to offer assistance to those facing potential climate-related damages to life and property.

Financial Markets to the Rescue: Catastrophe Bonds

Catastrophe bonds (“Cat bonds”) is a fast-growing segment of the corporate bond market that emerged out of Hurricane Andrew in the 1990s, when property damages bankrupted several insurance companies. Insurance companies of the sort that you and I usually interact with pool risks across many customers so as to afford payouts for the unlucky few that are affected by damages. To protect themselves from worst possible outcomes, they typically transfer off some of their most extreme risks to re insurance companies – essentially, insurance companies’ own insurance policies. You might think about it as “capping” risk exposure at a pre-arranged level by paying reinsurance firms a fee to accept damage claims above a particular level ( Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway has large such business; other market leaders include Swiss Re, Munich Re and Hannover Re).

Cat bonds provide the same service as this traditional reinsurance business through publicly traded financial markets instead. Much like securitization in other areas, a Cat bond complements this firm-to-firm reinsurance business by allowing insurance companies to sell off risk straight to financial markets. Investors, similarly, have recently been much more willing to buy them since a Cat bond’s value and interest rate payouts vary with natural disasters rather than business cycles or financial crashes. Indeed, a standard basket of Cat bonds have delivered remarkably stable returns, even outperforming the S&P500 since 2006 (measured very opportunistically). Their two prime virtues from an investment point of view are that they are virtually uncorrelated with other kinds of investment risk (stocks, bonds, FX), and their volatility is microscopic.

Specifically, this is how a Cat bond works:

1) An insurance company offers up (“Cedes”, “Sponsors”) a well-specified risk for a section of its claimants, packaged into a bond with a face value of, say, $100m.

2) A group of investors (through an investment bank or other vehicle) puts up $100m in a Special Purpose Vehicle that holds nothing but the Cat bond funds (usually invested in short-term CDs or government bonds to ensure some minimum real return).

3) The ceding insurance company then pays regular premiums into the SPV for the insurance protection it now receives from the bond.

4) For the duration of the Cat bond — typically 3-5 years — the SPV sends its investors regular interest payments if no event takes place. Should the “Trigger event” (the event specified in the contract, such as earthquakes floods or droughts of a certain severity) occur, the losses are deducted primarily from the set-aside funds and made instantly available to the insurance company to pay for their clients’ damages.

The great benefit for the insurance company is that the money is set aside, ring-fenced, and instantly available should the terms of the contract be fulfilled (i.e. damages of a certain kind and magnitude). For investors, the construction offers a diversifiable income stream, uncorrelated with other markets, and typically yields a few percentage points above market rates of similar duration.

Even the huge storm damages in 2017 from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma did nothing to dissipate this emergent market. A recent article in Bloomberg reported that the Cat bond market have kept growing rapidly as climate change is believed to cause even more extreme weather in the future.

How Can Cat Bonds Mitigate Climate Change Damage?

The similarities between damages from extreme weather phenomena and climate change should be fairly obvious. In both cases we are talking about out-of-the-ordinary events, with damages and consequences that many communities are typically not set up to protect against. Dealing with the costs of climate change that Climate Warriors and scientists say will inevitably come, could thus be conveniently done through the Cat bond market. And the best thing? It requires no political negotiation, no global haggling of rights or responsibilities and no expansive packages navigated through Congress. It requires Climate Warriors to simply put their money where their mouths are — and start buying Cat bonds.

This is how it could work.

AOC, Paul Krugman, Naomi Klein and Elizabeth Warren create the “CW Cat Non-Profit” and invite all their staff and supporters and the parents of the striking European school children to join. There could be membership fees and grand events filled with eloquent speeches, but the key point is to amass lots of funds through donations, and start buying Cat bonds like crazy. The purposes are twofold: assist the growth of the Cat bond market and become a large enough player so that they can start setting terms from their “upstream” partners in the insurance and reinsurance business.

If these activists and pundits truly fear the outcome for which they are protesting, and if they truly believe the grand and sharp slogans of their banners, it shouldn’t be a big problem to start pooling money to fund inevitable damages from the very thing they detest.

Quick back-of-the-envelope calculations also ensure that they could quickly reach a large share of the Cat bond market. Currently, there are Cat bonds outstanding worth $37.9 billions with new issues of some $10bn per year (some of which is simply re-investment of old bonds). Adding up a 25%-salary contribution by the hundred or so politicians who have publicly backed the Green New Deal, a one-off $200 contribution by the 2m or so participants of the last month’s #FridaysForFuture (double it to include non-attending friends, relatives and families) and add a one-time 25% wealth transfer by outspoken and well-off proponents of the Green New Deal scheme such as Maher, Krugman, Warren, Gore, Harris (naturally, they wouldn’t object…?), we’re already at a billion dollars – enough to entirely buy out the March issue of Cat bonds . With some extra cash from the $12 billion that environmental charities raise every year, and the generous support of the very vocal supporters of the Green New Deal, the “CW Cat Non-Profit” is soon on track to become the largest player in this business.

The Climate Warrior’s Edge

Now, if this is just a fund-raising attempt, why couldn’t Climate Warriors just as well pour their money into renewables, putting up solar panels or invent smart electricity grids and green car engines?

They could. But here’s the beauty: they have no particular technical or comparative advantages in those fields. As Cat investors, they do. Let me show you:

1) Long time horizon

An obstacle for Cat bonds has been their limited maturity of 3-5 years, after which they fall due and the risks revert back to the insurance companies. One reason for this is that risk-averse investors have been reluctant to commit funds to longer terms than that, partly as the combined Trigger event risk rises very high; the 30-year likelihood of at least one Magnitude 6 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area is estimated at 98% . By emphasizing longer terms , CW Cat Non-Profit can induce market participant to expand bond durations.

2) Much lower required rate of return

Climate Warriors are excessively concerned with future generations , and losses — in contrast to regular investors — are to be welcomed as a needed redistribution from well-off donors to those literally affected by climate change. They therefore have much lower risk premia and, not running a for-profit, consequently require much lower rates of return for holding climate risk.

3) No Liquidity premium

As long-term investors, not primarily set on earning money for themselves, CW Cat Non-Profit does not value the option of withdrawing the assets for consumption needs, i.e., places no particular price on the liquidity of the Cat instrument. As is the case today, the Cat market is still immensely small and not as liquid as many other financial markets. For ordinary investors, this kind of investment therefore demands a liquidity premium, a higher-than-otherwise interest rate. Not for CW Cat Non-Profit, and they thereby become a better client for bond originators, as CW Cat Non-Profit is willing to take on more risk for less cost.

4) Recycled return

Since the CW Cat Non-Profit has no interest in earning investment return for itself, the revenue streams generated can be fruitfully invested in social projects or infrastructure improvements — or simply re-distributed to those without insurance policies that the organization finds worthy. Indeed, should it become a large enough player on the global Cat market they can likely offer premium reductions in exchange for payouts to refugees of climate change, contingent on, say, UN status.

For Climate Warriors, the defeat of the Green New Deal should not be gloomed over, as it offers its proponents the ability to put their money where their mouths are and start alleviating climate change damages. Provided, that is, that they can overcome their hostility to financial markets.



Matt Bracken gives his take on the social media unpersoning epidemic sweeping across the internet.

Source: InfoWars

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The Latest: Killer released, victim’s family express fears

The Latest on the release of Thomas Kokoraleis, who was convicted in a 1982 killing and is a reputed member of Chicago's murderous "Ripper Crew":

5:05 p.m.

Relatives of a Chicago woman killed by a reputed member of the notorious "Ripper Crew" gang say they will be looking over their shoulders for years now that he has been released from prison.

Thomas Kokoraleis killed 21-year-old Lorry Ann Borowski in 1982 and was freed Friday after serving 35 years.

Holding a photo of her daughter, Lorraine Borowski tearfully told reporters that Kokoraleis didn't receive the justice he deserved, but that she has no doubt God "will deliver the final judgment."

Kokoraleis was initially sentenced to life in prison, but prosecutors allowed him to plead guilty on appeal in exchange for a 70-year prison term. The plea deal allowed for his release this week.

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7:50 a.m.

Authorities say a man convicted of murder as a suspected member of the notorious "Ripper Crew" that killed as many as 20 Chicago-area women in the 1980s has been released from prison.

An alert from Illinois' victim notification system was issued Friday saying 58-year-old Thomas Kokoraleis had been discharged from the Illinois Department of Corrections.

Kokoraleis was initially sentenced to life in prison for the 1982 slaying of 21-year-old Lorraine "Lorry" Ann Borowski.

But prosecutors allowed him to plead guilty on appeal in exchange for a 70-year prison term. The deal allowed for his release this week.

Relatives of some victims were infuriated in 2017 when they learned of Kokoraleis' expected release and delayed his initial parole date.

Records show Kokoraleis was held at the Illinois River Correctional Center in Canton, about 30 miles (48 kilometers) west of Peoria.

Source: Fox News National

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Vermont daycare owner arrested in death of infant given antihistamine

A Vermont daycare operator was arrested Monday in the death of a six-month-old baby who police said fatally overdosed after being given an antihistamine to help her sleep.

Stacey Vailancourt, 53, of Rutland, was taken into custody on suspicion of manslaughter and cruelty to a child arising from the January death of six-month-old Harper Rose Briar, Vermont State Police said in a news release.

“Toxicology testing determined that Harper Briar had high concentrations of diphenhydramine in her body,” the news release said.

BOY SEVERELY ABUSED AS INFANT GETS SPIDER-MAN PROSTHETICS TO HELP HIM WALK

The autopsy report noted that diphenhydramine, the active sedating ingredient in over-the-counter antihistamines, is not to be used on infants without a doctor’s order, according to the news release. There was no such order for Harper.

Vailancourt ran a licensed daycare out of her home.

Police said Harper’s parent left her with Vailancourt, who called 911 when the baby became unresponsive.

SMOKING WHILE PREGNANT DOUBLES RISK OF SUDDEN UNEXPECTED INFANT DEATH, STUDY FINDS

The baby’s obituary in the Rutland Herald said she was daughter of Marissa Colburn and Blake Briar, and was the light of their lives and brought joy to everyone who met her.

“Harper Rose quickly gained the title of 'Perfect Princess,' her beautiful smile made everyone instantly fall in love with her,” it said.

Source: Fox News National

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China warns Australia at WTO about 5G restriction

FILE PHOTO: Small toy figures are seen in front of a displayed Huawei and 5G network logo in this illustration picture
FILE PHOTO: Small toy figures are seen in front of a displayed Huawei and 5G network logo in this illustration picture, March 30, 2019. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

April 12, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – China warned Australia at the World Trade Organization on Friday that Australia’s restriction on Chinese 5G telecoms technology was “obviously discriminative” and appeared to break global trade rules, according to a transcript seen by Reuters.

China’s representative at the WTO’s Council on Trade in Goods said measures to restrict 5G technology had a “great impact on international trade” and would not address concerns about cybersecurity, but only make countries technologically isolated.

(Reporting by Tom Miles; editing by Stephanie Nebehay)

Source: OANN

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The Latest: Phoenix police: Man booked in killing of 4

The Latest on the killing of four people in Phoenix (all times local):

4 p.m.

Police have identified the 30-year-old Phoenix man arrested in the killings of his wife, two of their young children and a man he apparently thought was romantically involved with his wife.

Sgt. Tommy Thompson said Friday that Austin Smith was booked on suspicion of four counts of first-degree murder, two counts of attempted first-degree murder and three counts of aggravated assault.

Smith was arrested Thursday evening after officers responding to a shooting at an apartment found the body of 46-year-old Ron Freeman. Two other people were wounded there.

Officers who went to Smith's home later Thursday found his wife, 29-year-old Dasia Patterson, and their 5-year-old daughter, Nasha Smith, dead from gunshot wounds. Their 7-year-old daughter, Mayan Smith, died from apparent blunt-force trauma, and the couple's 3-year-old daughter was uninjured.

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10:15 a.m.

Phoenix police say a man has been arrested on suspicion of killing his wife, his two young daughters and a man who the suspect thought was romantically involved with his wife.

Sgt. Tommy Thompson said Friday that authorities found the daughters ages 5 and 7 dead at the family's home Thursday night. A 3-year-old daughter was unharmed.

Thompson says the suspect was arrested while driving away from an apartment complex where the man had been shot dead and two others were shot and wounded.

The suspect and the victims were not identified.

__

This version corrects the name of the officer in the 3rd paragraph, Thompson not Thomson.

___

7:20 a.m.

Phoenix police say one person was killed and two others wounded in near-simultaneous shootings in an apartment complex and that police quickly detained one person as a possible suspect.

Police said officers responding to one shooting Thursday night heard gunshots in the area and found some of the victims during a search.

According to police, the possible suspect was taken into custody during a traffic stop shortly after the shootings occurred and a vehicle was seen leaving the area.

The dead person was described as a man and those wounded as a man and a woman, and Detective Luis Samudio said it wasn't immediately known whether the possible suspect knew the victims.

Details of the circumstances of the incident weren't immediately available and no identities were released.

Source: Fox News National

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On his way to Vietnam, Kim Jong Un took an early smoke break

It's unclear whether North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is going to give up his nukes anytime soon, and the same could probably be said for his cigarettes.

Footage by Japan's TBS TV showed Kim, a habitual smoker, taking a pre-dawn smoke break Tuesday at a train station in China hours before his arrival in Vietnam for his high-stakes summit with President Donald Trump over resolving the international standoff over the North's nuclear weapons and missiles.

The video showed Kim puffing a cigarette and talking with North Korean officials at China's Nanning rail station. A woman who appeared to be his sister Kim Yo Jong, one of the most powerful individuals in North Korea, is seen holding a crystal ashtray.

Also seen on the platform is Hyon Song Wol, a North Korean ruling party elite and the leader of the famous Moranbong girl band handpicked by Kim Jong Un. Hyon's inclusion in Kim's delegation has raised speculation that cultural events could be part of the agreements reached between Washington and Pyongyang this week as they look for easier steps to improve relations.

Kim arrived in Vietnam on Tuesday after an almost 70-hour train ride that cut through southern China. While it remains unclear why Kim chose to travel thousands of miles through China instead of flying into Hanoi, some experts say he could have intended to showcase North Korea's ties with its major ally China, a crucial leverage in his negotiations with Trump. Kim, who has modeled his leadership style after his charismatic grandfather Kim Il Sung, also could have tried to inspire nostalgia among North Koreans about their state founder, who frequently traveled on trains.

Despite pushing an anti-smoking campaign in North Korea, Kim is frequently seen with a cigarette in his hands. In July 2017, North Korea's state broadcaster showed him casually smoking in front of one of his liquid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles as it underwent preparations for a test launch. State media also showed Kim and North Korean officials laughing and lighting up cigarettes following the success of the North's last ICBM test in November 2017.

Source: Fox News World

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Anger and apprehension haunt ruined Sinjar, years after Islamic State ousted

Destroyed houses after clashes are seen in Sinjar
Destroyed houses after clashes are seen in Sinjar, Iraq February 6, 2019. Picture taken February 6, 2019. REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily

February 26, 2019

By Ayat Basma

SINJAR, Iraq (Reuters) – It’s dawn in Sinjar and the only sounds are the footsteps of guards patrolling a golden-domed shrine on a hill overlooking a vista of collapsed rooftops.

More than three years after Islamic State was driven out of this city in northern Iraq, all that remains in the once bustling market are the bomb-scarred facades of shops. Dozens of streets are blocked by metal barrels – a sign of unexploded ordnance that has yet to be cleared.

In a city whose former occupiers slaughtered thousands of minority Yazidis, water is scarce and power intermittent. The closest hospital to reopen is a 45-minute drive away. There are only two schools.

The physical devastation is extreme, but it is not the city’s only challenge. Caught in a power tussle between Iraq’s central government and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, the city also struggles with a political impasse.

“It is in ruins. There has been no progress at all,” said Ibrahim Mahmoud Ezzo, 55, the Yazidi owner of about a dozen shops, all of which are damaged.

“There is no mayor and no local council. People are losing billions of dinars in lost business and property every year, they don’t know who to turn to,” he said.

“How long are we supposed to wait?”

Overrun by Islamic State in 2014 and liberated by an array of forces the following year, little has been rebuilt and only a fraction of the population has returned. Residents say both the KRG regional government and the central government have made no effort at construction.

Before August 2014 when the jihadists overran it, Sinjar had a population of about 100,000. They included Yazidis, a religious minority whose beliefs combine elements of several ancient Middle Eastern religions and who considered the city the capital of their heartland, as well as Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims, Christians and ethnic Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and others.

LACK OF RECONCILIATION

Today only a quarter have returned, all of them Yazidi. The Norwegian Refugee Council says none of the members of the other communities have returned because of a lack of reconciliation.

The Yazidis, 3,000 of whom where killed in an onslaught described by the United Nations as genocidal, say nearby Sunni Arab villages and townspeople aided the jihadists.

In the meantime, people are put off returning by tensions arising from the presence of rival armed groups.

Sinjar lies in a sensitive area straddling the borders of Iraq’s Kurdistan region and neighboring Syria, Iran and Turkey.

“The PKK are here, the police are here, the Popular Mobilization Units are here, the army is here,” Ezzo said, listing the names of various units of the Iraqi government forces and militias that are in the city and around it.

“We don’t understand what the situation is,” Ezzo said.

The KRG had controlled the region without much objection from Baghdad since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 until 2017 when, in retaliation for an independence bid, the central government pushed out the KRG, its Peshmerga forces and allies, and brought in their own.

These included a Shi’ite paramilitary force, the Popular Mobilization Units known as PMU, as well as the national army and the police.

At their hilltop post, the PMU guard a shrine with a golden dome that can be seen from many parts of the city. Islamic State had destroyed it along with all other religious landmarks.

The shrine, believed to be the burial site of a daughter of Imam Hussein who died in 680 AD, has been rebuilt entirely, a shining contrast to the devastation around.

NO MONEY TO BUY

Despite the hardship, farmers and villagers from Sinjar still gather daily for a sheep auction. Trader Khodida Qassem lit a cigarette as he watched villagers argue about price.

“What you see here is a lot of sheep but no one has the money to buy,” Qassem, 40, said.

Nayef Yazdi, 26, who reopened his store six months ago, says he does not expect things to improve soon. “It is all political,” said Yazdi, who lost a brother and two uncles in the fighting in 2014.

Dindar Zebari, the KRG coordinator for international advocacy, said “in Sinjar today, there is no legitimate authority, there are no official and decisive security forces.”

“The KRG is not ignoring the problem in Sinjar,” he said, urging Baghdad to share responsibility for this area with Peshmerga and ensure the removal of militias including the PMU.

A central government spokesperson could not immediately be reached for comment. Officials privately attribute the slow pace of rebuilding to security problems in the area and red tape in approving a reconstruction budget for Nineveh province.

Outside the city, armed groups appear entrenched. At a cemetery for fighters of the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party, which set up an affiliate to fight IS in 2014 and 2015 and then stayed on, one fighter said the job was not done yet.

“For sure, they (Islamic State) are not gone and we will remain in the mountain to offer help and support and we will go wherever needed,” he said, standing beside graves bearing names of the dead from Sinjar and neighboring Syria, Turkey, and Iran.

Not far away, Yazidi commander Qassem Shesho says he is still prepared to fight. Shesho and his men gave up their arms when the KRG lost control to Baghdad, but they are angry at what he called “threats” by some armed groups he declined to name.

“They are strangers to our land and they want to bring back Daesh under a different name,” he said. “God willing they will fail like Daesh.”

(Reporting by Ayat Basma and Kawa Omar, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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A Florida measure that would ban sanctuary cities is set for a vote Friday in the state’s Senate after clearing its first hurdle earlier this week.

The bill would effectively make it against the law for Florida’s police departments to refuse to cooperate with federal immigration officials.

“The Governor may initiate judicial proceedings in the name of the state against such officers to enforce compliance,” a draft version of the Senate bill reads.

A House version of the bill, which passed by a 69-47 vote Wednesday, adds that non-complying officials could be suspended or removed from office and face fines of up to $5,000 per day. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to sign off on the measure, although it’s not clear which version.

FLORIDA MAY SEND A BIG MESSAGE TO SANCTUARY CITIES

Florida Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith (D-Orlando), during a press conference at the Florida Capitol in Tallahassee, speaks out against bills in the House and Senate that would ban sanctuary cities in the state.

Florida Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith (D-Orlando), during a press conference at the Florida Capitol in Tallahassee, speaks out against bills in the House and Senate that would ban sanctuary cities in the state. (AP)

LAWRENCE JONES: NEEDLES, DRUG USE AND HUMAN WASTE ARE THE NEW NORMAL IN SAN FRANCISCO

Florida is home to 775,000 illegal immigrants out of 10.7 million present in the United States, ranking the state third among all states.

Nine states — Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas — already have enacted state laws requiring law enforcement to comply with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Florida doesn’t have sanctuary cities like the ones in California and other states. But Republican lawmakers say a handful of their municipalities — including Orlando and West Palm Beach – are acting as “pseudo-sanctuary” cities, because they prevent law enforcement officials from asking about immigration status when they make arrests.

“There are still people here in the state of Florida, police chiefs that are just refusing to contact ICE, refusing to detain somebody that they know is here illegally,” Florida Republican Rep. Blaise Ingoglia said earlier this month. “So while the actual county municipality doesn’t have an actual adopted policy, they still have people in power within their sheriff’s department or police department that refuse to do it anyway.”

Florida’s Democratic Party has blasted the anti-Sanctuary measures, while the Miami-Dade Police Department says it should be up to federal authorities to handle immigration-related matters.

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“House Republicans today sold out their communities to Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis by passing this xenophobic and discriminatory bill,” the state’s Democratic Party said Wednesday after the House passed their version of the bill. “It’s abhorrent that Republican members who represent immigrant communities are now turning their backs on their constituents and jeopardizing their safety.

“Florida has long stood as a beacon for immigrant communities — and today Republicans did the best they could to destroy that reputation,” they added.

Fox News’ Elina Shirazi contributed to this report.

Source: Fox News National

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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The Amish population in Pennsylvania’s Lancaster County is continuing to grow each year, despite the encroachment of urban sprawl on their communities.

The U.S. Census Bureau says the county added about 2,500 people in 2018. LNP reports that about 1,000 of them were Amish.

Elizabethtown College researchers say Lancaster County’s Amish population reached 33,143 in 2018, up 3.2% from the previous year.

The Amish accounted for about 41% of the county’s overall population growth last year.

Some experts are concerned that a planned 75-acre (30-hectare) housing and commercial project will make it more difficult for the county to accommodate the Amish.

Donald Kraybill, an authority on Amish culture, told Manheim Township commissioners this week that some in the community are worried about the development and the increased traffic it would bring.

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Information from: LNP, http://lancasteronline.com

Source: Fox News National

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Fox News correspondent Geraldo Rivera has warned that if Democratic 2020 presidential candidates don’t take the crisis at the border seriously, they’ll do so at their own risk.

Speaking with “Fox & Friends” hosts on Friday morning, Rivera discussed the influx of candidates entering the race, including former Vice President Joe Biden, and gave an update on the newest developments at the border.

“If [Democrats] don’t take it seriously they ignore it at their peril,” Rivera said.

He went on to discuss the fact that Mexico is experiencing the same problems dealing with volumes of people at the border as the United States is. Processing facilities, as many have argued, are understaffed and underresourced, resulting in conditions that have been controversial.

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“It is very, very difficult when hundreds and hundreds become thousands and thousands ultimately become tens of it is very difficult to have an orderly system,” he said.

Rivera asserted his opinion that the United States could lessen the influx of migrants coming into the country by investing in the development of Central American countries, where many are fleeing from violence and economic instability.

“I believe, as I have said before on this program, that we have to stop the source of the migrant explosion, by a comprehensive system of political and economic reform in Central America where people have the incentive to stay home,” Rivera said.

“I think we have help Mexico with its infrastructure. Mexico has a moral burden, as the president made very clear, not to let unchecked herds of desperate people flow through 2,000 miles of Mexican territory to get our southern border.”

Rivera also brought up President Trump’s controversial comments about Mexican immigrants during his campaign in 2016.

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The Fox News correspondent said that having been so excited about Trump’s campaign, the comments made him feel “deflated” as a Hispanic American.

However, as the crisis at the border has accelerated over the last few years, Rivera argued that ultimately, the president’s comments weren’t incorrect.

“He is now in a position where he can justly say I was right, that the that the anarchy at the border doesn’t serve anybody,” Rivera said. “Maybe he said it in a language I felt was a little rough and insensitive, but there is no doubt.”

Source: Fox News Politics

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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