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Radovan Karadzic faces final verdict in war crimes case

FILE PHOTO: Ex-Bosnian Serb leader Karadzic sits in the court of the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia in The Hague
FILE PHOTO: Ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic sits in the court of the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague, the Netherlands March 24, 2016. REUTERS/Robin van Lonkhuijsen/Pool/File Photo

March 20, 2019

By Stephanie van den Berg

THE HAGUE (Reuters) – United Nations appeals judges on Wednesday hand down a final verdict in the case of former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, a key figure in the Balkan wars who is serving a 40-year prison sentence for genocide.

The ruling will likely bring to a close one of the highest profile trials stemming from the series of wars in the 1990s that saw the bloody collapse of the former Yugoslavia and death of at least 100,000 Bosnians.

Karadzic, 73, was convicted in 2016 for the July 1995 Srebrenica massacre of more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys by Bosnian Serb forces. He was also found guilty of leading a campaign of ethnic cleansing that drove Croats and Muslims out of Serb-claimed areas of Bosnia.

On appeal, prosecutors are seeking a life sentence and a second genocide conviction for his alleged role in that policy of targeting non-Serbs across several Bosnian towns in the early years of the war. Karadzic meanwhile is appealing against his conviction and wants a retrial.

The ruling, which is final and cannot be challenged on appeal, will have huge resonance in the former Yugoslavia, especially in Bosnia, where ethnic communities remain divided and Karadzic is still seen as a hero by many Bosnian Serbs.

The judgment will be read out at 14:00 local time (13:00 GMT) in The Hague at a U.N. court handling cases left over when the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia closed its doors in 2017.

A delegation of the association of Mothers of Srebrenica will be in the Netherlands for the judgment.

In hiding for nearly a decade, Karadzic was arrested and handed over to the court in July 2008.

(Editing by Anthony Deutsch, William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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Trump says he's 'O.K.' with 'permanent' Daylight Saving Time

President Trump apparently is tired of switching clocks just like everyone else.

Coming off a universally sleep-deprived weekend during which America set the clocks to spring forward an hour, Trump tweeted that he's “O.K.” with making Daylight Saving Time “permanent” -- in other words, enough with the clock changing.

“Making Daylight Saving Time permanent is O.K. with me!” Trump tweeted Monday.

The president’s tweet came at the start of 2019’s Daylight Saving Time, which begins each year on the second Sunday in March, starting at 2 a.m. Changing the clocks forward means everyone loses an hour of sleep but gains an hour of evening daylight through the fall, when the clocks are turned back.

The law was first established during World War I as “a way of conserving fuel needed for war industries and of extending the working day,” according to the Library of Congress. But it was only temporary – the law was repealed as soon as the war was over.

DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME: WHEN AND WHY WE 'FALL BACK'

But the issue of daylight saving emerged again during World War II. On Jan. 20, 1942, Congress re-established daylight saving time.

More than 20 years later, in 1966, former President Lyndon B. Johnson signed into law the Uniform Time Act, declaring daylight saving time a policy of the U.S. and establishing uniform start and end times within standard time zones. The policy is regulated by the Department of Transportation.

But not all states participate. Hawaii, most of Arizona and several U.S. territories—including American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands—do not observe daylight saving time.

OPINION: DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME IS MAKING US ALL TIME TRAVELERS AGAIN

The president would need to work with Congress in order to repeal the 1966 Johnson-era law. Republican Florida Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott filed a bill last week to extend daylight saving time for the entire year, called the Sunshine Protection Act. The Florida legislature voted last year to adopt the measure, but in order for it to take effect, Congress must change the federal law, and Trump must sign it.

His Monday morning tweet seemed to signal that should such a proposal make it to his desk, he would do so.

The topic has caused a nationwide debate since its inception, with many arguing the policy is unnecessary and disturbs sleep patterns. Supporters say it saves energy because people tend to spend more time outside when it's lighter out. The DOT claims it also "saves lives and prevents traffic injuries," because visibility is better.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

Source: Fox News Politics

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Ivanka Trump promotes businesswomen after Ivory Coast cocoa farm visit

White House Advisor Ivanka Trump dances as she meets women entrepreneurs, at the demonstration cocoa farm in Adzope
White House Advisor Ivanka Trump dances as she meets women entrepreneurs, at the demonstration cocoa farm in Adzope, Ivory Coast April 17, 2019. REUTERS/Luc Gnago

April 17, 2019

By Ange Aboa

ABIDJAN (Reuters) – Ivanka Trump vowed support for initiatives to promote women in business on Wednesday, after visiting an Ivorian cocoa farm on the second leg of her African tour.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s daughter, who works as his adviser, was speaking at a forum on women’s economic empowerment in Ivory Coast’s main city of Abidjan.

She arrived in Ivory Coast on Tuesday, after visiting Ethiopia. Ivanka is championing the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity initiative, which officials have said aims to economically empower 50 million women by 2025.

“It’s a social justice issue, it’s an economic issue, it’s a defense issue, and it just plain makes sense,” she said of women’s economic empowerment in Africa.

But she added that “there are substantial barriers,” such as lack of access to capital for 70 percent of female business owners, and that women made up just 15 percent of land owners on the continent.

Earlier she visited a cocoa farm in Adzope, in southeastern Ivory Coast, where she announced a US AID and World Cocoa Foundation initiative to give $2 million to female cocoa farmers.

Ivory Coast produces more than a third of the world’s cocoa.

(Writing by Tim Cocks; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Source: OANN

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'Great personal regret' that UK won't leave EU with deal next week: Theresa May

British Prime Minister Theresa May said Wednesday evening that it was "a matter of great personal regret" that the United Kingdom will not leave the European Union with a divorce agreement next week as previously scheduled.

Said May, it's time for members of Parliament to decide what will happen next.

"Do they want to leave the E.U. with a deal which delivers on the result of the [2016] referendum? Which takes back control of our money, borders and laws while protecting jobs and our national security?" May asked rhetorically during a brief address to the nation at 10 Downing Street. "Do they want to leave without a deal? Or do they not want to leave at all, causing potentially irreparable damage to public trust not just in this generation of politicians, but to our entire democratic process?"

May confirmed that she had asked European Council President Donald Tusk to postpone the scheduled date of Britain's departure from the E.U. to June 30 from March 29; she added that she isn't prepared "to delay Brexit any further."

E.U. leaders, who are exasperated by Britain's Brexit melodrama, will only grant the extension if May can win the U.K. Parliament's approval next week for her twice-rejected Brexit deal. In the letter to Tusk, May said she would set out her reasons to E.U. leaders at a summit in Brussels on Thursday.

TRUMP BACKS BREXIT BY PROMISING 'LARGE SCALE TRADE DEAL' WITH UK, AS LAWMAKERS MULL DELAY

Tusk has said he believes a short delay to Brexit "will be possible, but it would be conditional on a positive vote on the withdrawal agreement in the House of Commons."

"Even if the hope for a final success may seem frail, even illusory, and although Brexit fatigue is increasingly visible and justified, we cannot give up seeking until the very last moment a positive solution," Tusk said in Brussels.

May had planned to try again this week to get the agreement approved until the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow ruled that she can't ask Parliament to vote on the deal again unless it is substantially changed. The prime minister told Tusk that despite Bercow's ruling, "it remains my intention to bring the deal back to the House."

She's likely to do that next week -- within days or hours of Britain's scheduled departure -- by arguing that circumstances have changed, and that the speaker's bar on a third vote no longer applied.

FRENCH MINISTER NAMED HER CAT BREXIT BECAUSE HE'S INDECISIVE, REPORT SAYS

In her address Wednesday night, the prime minister ruled out the possibility of a second referendum on leaving the E.U., which is supported by the opposition Labour Party.

"I don’t believe that’s what you want and it is not what I want," May told viewers. "We asked you the question already and you gave us your answer. Now, you want us to get on with it."

An added wrinkle to May's request is the scheduled May 23-26 election for the European Parliament. Britain's seats in that body have been allocated to other countries to fill.

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Britain believes it won't have to participate if its scheduled exit date is pushed to June 30, because the newly elected European Parliament is not due to convene until July.

Some E.U. officials take a different view and want any extension to end by the first day of the European elections.

May poured cold water Wednesday night on asking Britons to vote in E.U. elections "nearly three years after our country decided to leave."

"What kind of message would that send?" she asked. "And just how bitter and divisive would that election campaign be at a time when the country desperately needs bringing back together?"

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: Fox News World

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Exclusive: China’s Dalian port bans Australian coal imports, sets 2019 quota – source

FILE PHOTO: A reclaimer places coal in stockpiles at the coal port in Newcastle
FILE PHOTO: A reclaimer places coal in stockpiles at the coal port in Newcastle, Australia, June 6, 2012. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/File Photo

February 21, 2019

BEIJING (Reuters) – Customs at China’s northern Dalian port has banned imports of Australian coal and will cap overall coal imports for 2019 through its harbours at 12 million tonnes, an official at Dalian Port Group told Reuters on Thursday.

The indefinite ban on imports from top supplier Australia, effective since the start of February, comes as major ports elsewhere in China prolong clearing times for Australian coal to at least 40 days.

Five harbours overseen by Dalian customs – Dalian, Bayuquan, Panjin, Dandong and Beiliang – will not allow Australian coal to clear through customs, said the official. Coal imports from Russia and Indonesia will not be affected.

The ports handled about 14 million tonnes of coal last year, half of which was from Australia, said Gu Meng, analyst at Orient Futures.

The Dalian official declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. Dalian customs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

(Reporting by Meng Meng, Muyu Xu and Dominique Patton; editing by Richard Pullin)

Source: OANN

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Job boom to outweigh soft patch as Bank of Canada mulls rate moves

FILE PHOTO: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks during a news conference in Ottawa
FILE PHOTO: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks during a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, January 9, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie/File Photo

March 14, 2019

By Fergal Smith and Julie Gordon

TORONTO/OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates to support a flagging economy as long as job growth continues at a robust pace, an analysis of the central bank’s response to past divergences in economic data suggests.

The economy could also get a boost from a revival in consumer spending, with next week’s federal budget expected to offer incentives that may ease the burden of debt-laden consumers.

The Canadian economy has become sluggish, with trade uncertainty weighing on business investment and a housing downturn hitting consumer spending, prompting speculation the Bank of Canada could cut rates this year.

But the pace of job growth has historically been a better signal for easing than variations in economic growth, Refinitiv data analyzed by Reuters shows. On the last two occasions that job growth and the strength of the economy diverged, in 2006 and 2012, the Bank of Canada chose not to cut rates.

(GRAPHIC: Canada GDP, jobs and Bank of Canada – https://tmsnrt.rs/2UH2ynG)

If gross domestic product is expanding at a slow pace “but jobs are blasting ahead, then yes, the bank is unlikely to cut rates,” said Royce Mendes, a senior economist with CIBC Capital Markets, cautioning that job data can be volatile.

Dismal economic growth in the fourth quarter prompted the Bank of Canada – which has hiked rates five times since July 2017 – to warn about “increased uncertainty,” even as job gains topped 55,000 in four of the last six months.

MORE JOBS, RISING SALARIES

The more dovish tone has led the market to price in about a 30 percent chance of a rate cut this year, whereas before it had been pricing in a potential hike. Canada’s 10-year bond yield on Tuesday hit its lowest level since June 2017, dropping below the 1.75 percent level of the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.

But experts say the strong employment numbers suggest Canada is facing a temporary soft patch, making rate cuts a risky response that would leave the Bank of Canada little room to maneuver in the case of a real economic shock.

“The jobs data throws into question whether it is really that serious of a soft patch,” said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

“This might be a three-month soft patch,” he added. “If you spend all your ammunition on a slow patch then there’s nothing else.”

In addition to the economy churning out jobs, there are signs wages are finally rising, something the central bank has been watching closely.

And Canadians may find their wallets padded further, with the potential for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to introduce measures next week on child care, pharmaceutical care and skills training in the ruling Liberals’ final budget ahead of an October election.

“The bank is rightly cautious because even with the job gains that we’ve had, disposable income growth is really not that supportive,” said Mark Chandler, head of Canadian fixed income and currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

“It may change if we get something in the budget – tax rates down, transfers up. Then, disposable income might look a little better.”

(Reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto and Julie Gordon in Ottawa; Editing by Paul Simao)

Source: OANN

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More charges for Detroit-area man accused of fighting for IS

Federal prosecutors have added charges against a Detroit-area man who was captured in Syria and accused of providing support to the Islamic State group.

Ibraheem Musaibli is charged with conspiring to provide material support to IS, firing a machine gun and receiving military training. The government says Musaibli was captured by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces last summer and flown to the U.S. He first appeared in court in July .

U.S. Attorney Matthew Schneider says the new charges, filed Tuesday, "more fully capture" Musaibli's alleged conduct while overseas. If convicted, he faces at least 40 years in prison.

A message seeking comment was left for his attorney.

Musaibli's relatives say he isn't an IS fighter. They say the 28-year-old U.S. citizen was in Syria to work and study religion.

Source: Fox News National

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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