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France seeks answers after police failure to contain rioting

A top French security official is acknowledging that police failed to contain rioting in Paris during yellow vest protests and says the government is trying to avoid a repeat scenario.

Junior Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said Monday on RTL radio that police had prepared for an upsurge in violence but were "less reactive" Saturday than in previous demonstrations. He said they were notably more cautious about using rubber ball launchers because of numerous injuries they've caused.

Nunez and the interior minister are meeting Monday with President Emmanuel Macron.

Rioters set life-threatening fires, ransacked luxury stores and attacked police around the Champs-Elysees on Saturday. The sudden resurgence of violence came as the yellow vest movement demanding economic justice has been dwindling.

Calls are already circulating on social networks for new protests next Saturday.

Source: Fox News World

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Fed to raise interest rates once more in third quarter, then done: Reuters poll

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during his news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, U.S., December 19, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

March 15, 2019

By Rahul Karunakar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will remain patient for a little longer than thought just last month, waiting until the third quarter before raising rates once more, and then stay on the sidelines, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

That comes on the heels of a similar Reuters survey which concluded there is a significant risk the European Central Bank goes into the next economic downturn without having raised interest rates at all.

The latest poll of over 100 economists taken March 11-14 also lines up with recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said the central bank does “not feel any hurry” to change rates again.

But with growth due to slow over the next three years and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation not expected to show any significant pick up, an increasing number of economists have turned dovish on the U.S. interest rate outlook.

“The Fed is…not in a hurry to raise its target rate again anytime soon,” noted Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at Unicredit. “Accordingly, we have taken the possibility of a June hike off the table. While the Fed may be eyeing a later rise, we continue to expect that the window of opportunity will close in the second half of the year.”

While economists polled unanimously expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its March 19-20 meeting, 55 percent of them said it will have hiked at least once by end-September, when the median suggests it will be 25 basis points higher at 2.50-2.75 percent.

Just last month, the consensus predicted a hike in the second quarter.

The latest poll also showed an increasing number of economists predicting no further rate hikes. Financial markets have also priced out further rate rises.

“We no longer expect any rate hike this year…(and) we doubt that the economic data will be strong enough to build a case for a re-start of the hiking cycle,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

Over one-quarter of respondents who provided forecasts going all the way out to end-2020 predicted the Fed would have cut rates at least once by then, including two who forecast that to happen as soon as the third quarter of this year.

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to expand at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent this quarter, down from the 2.6 percent in the previous quarter and a cut from 1.9 percent predicted last month.

GDP growth is then forecast in a 2.0-2.5 percent range throughout 2019, slowing to 1.8 percent by mid-2020, according to the consensus.

But the median probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months held stable compared with February at 25 percent, with the chances of a recession in the next two years steady at 40 percent.

“The Fed is normally one of the major factors in recession (and so) we just think they will be very careful here,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“We don’t have factors that have been associated with every modern recession in the U.S.,” he said. “It has to be something big, like a major escalation in the trade war causing a freezing up of business investment, a big sell-off in the equity market. That would probably be enough to create a recession.”

(Analysis and polling by Sujith Pai, Tushar Goenka and Anisha Sheth; additional reporting by Manjul Paul and Sujith Pai; Editing by Ross Finley and Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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After drug distributor charged, Trump sets speech on opioid fight

U.S. President Trump attends the 2019 White House Easter Egg Roll in Washington
U.S. President Donald Trump attends the 2019 White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S., April 22, 2019. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

April 24, 2019

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump is expected to tout his fight against opioid abuse in remarks in Atlanta on Wednesday, a day after his administration brought its first related criminal charges against a major drug distributor and company executives.

America’s opioid epidemic, especially damaging in rural areas where Trump is popular, has been a focus for the Republican president.

Little has come of Trump’s calls for executing drug dealers, but on other fronts the administration has taken some action. Trump has worked to boost funding for treatment and raise awareness of the problem.

On Tuesday, the government charged Rochester Drug Co-operative Inc and executives of the major drug distributor. The company agreed to pay $20 million and enter a deferred prosecution agreement to resolve charges it turned a blind eye to thousands of suspicious orders for opioids.

Deaths from opioid overdose in the United States jumped 17 percent in 2017 from a year earlier to more than 49,000 according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Deaths from synthetic opioids like fentanyl surged 45 percent in that time, according to the CDC.

Hundreds of lawsuits by state and local governments accuse drugmakers such as Purdue Pharma of deceptively marketing opioids, and distributors such as AmerisourceBergen Corp, Cardinal Health Inc and McKesson Corp of ignoring that they were being diverted for improper uses.

Trump has said he convinced Chinese President Xi Jinping in a December meeting in Argentina to designate fentanyl as a controlled substance.

China last month listed all fentanyl-related substances as controlled narcotics after criticism from Trump, though its government blamed U.S. culture for abuse of the drug and said the amount of fentanyl going from China into the United States was “extremely limited.”

Trump declared the opioid crisis a public health emergency in October 2017. He plans to provide an update on his administration’s work on the issue at the Rx Drug Abuse and Heroin Summit, a White House spokesman said.

Trump has used the crisis to support his call for building a wall on the border with Mexico, saying it would help keep out drugs and curb the crisis.

Heroin from Mexico accounted for 86 percent of the heroin found on U.S. streets, according to the Drug Enforcement Agency’s most recent annual narcotic report. Heroin, unlike fentanyl, is derived from the seeds of the opium poppy plant.

Last week, U.S. health officials said they will spend $350 million in four states to study ways to best deal with the opioid crisis on the local level, with a goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths by 40 percent over three years in selected communities in those states.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Caroline Stauffer; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and David Gregorio)

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Ex-Clinton Aide: Biden Non-Apology ‘Doesn’t Wash’

Joe Biden's non-apology for what several women have said was a violation of their personal space "doesn't wash," a former senior aide to Hillary Clinton said Thursday.

In remarks on CNN's "Newsroom" with Poppy Harlow and Jim Sciutto, Jess McIntosh, who served as a Clinton campaign communications director and is a CNN commentator, said Biden "has to take responsibility . . . that's what women are waiting to hear him do."

Video of the remarks was posted on Mediaite.

"The excuse that societal norms have changed just doesn't wash," she said. "That sort of paternal behavior toward women in a professional setting has been making women feel uncomfortable for generations. The only societal norm that has changed is that men seem to be taking us seriously when we complain about it now."

"So, the idea that this behavior used to be OK, and now it's not, just really doesn't wash."

McIntosh said early polling on Biden in a 2020 race is just that — early.

"What you're gauging when you gauge those numbers is name [identification]," she said. "Of course, he's way at the top having been Barack Obama's very popular vice president. I worry about all of the attention that we put on candidates who are not yet even in exploratory phase."

McIntosh noted another presidential contender, Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., put out a proposal to have Dreamers work in Congress, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., put out a proposal to make it easier to jail fraudulent bankers.

"If we spent a day discussing those policy proposals and what they mean for the country, I think we would be engaged in a better, more uplifting Democratic primary rather than spending time on candidates that haven't announced yet."

Source: NewsMax America

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Australian man sentenced to 5 years in Bali prison for drugs

A court in Bali has sentenced an Australian man and his Indonesian girlfriend to five years and four months in prison each for possessing cocaine.

Presiding Judge Ketut Kimiarsa told the court Wednesday that the panel of judges had exercised leniency in their sentencing, based on both defendants having no prior criminal records and expressing regret for their crime.

Brandon Johnson and his girlfriend, Remi Purwanti, were arrested with 11.6 grams of cocaine separated into 13 plastic bags.

Kimiarsa said the crime was serious because it went against the Indonesian government's program to combat the spread of narcotics and was damaging to the image of Indonesia's main tourist destination.

Johnson and Purwanti, who were each fined 800 million rupiah ($57,000) or an additional two months in prison, are not appealing.

Source: Fox News World

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Hillary 'Can't Imagine' Running for President Again

Hillary Clinton told Tina Brown's podcast "TBD" she "can't imagine" running for president again but insists she is "going to keep speaking out" about President Donald Trump.

"I can't imagine that, no," Clinton said Monday when asked if she could change her mind about seeking the White House in 2020.

However, she insisted "Just because I'm not running, I'm not going to keep my mouth shut. I'm going to keep speaking out," saying she is "very worried about the direction that Trump and his allies are taking us."

Clinton added "it is a very concerning time not only for our democracy but for Western democracy overall."

She also discussed the challenges women have in running for president.

Regarding presidential debates, for example, Clinton said, "How does a woman stand up for herself on the biggest stage in the world without . . . looking aggressive, maybe a little bit angry, that somebody is behaving like that, being willing to go toe-to-toe when there are so few memories embedded in our collective DNA where women do that?"

She said it is difficult for a woman to "get on this kind of Goldilocks path where you're not too strong and you're not too weak, you're not too aggressive and you're not too passive. This is still a problem for women on the public stage."

However, Clinton said the greater number of women in the race for the White House in 2020 should make it "a little bit easier," because the public will be confronted with a wider range of speaking styles and campaign approaches.

Source: NewsMax America

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FAA to meet with U.S. airlines, pilot unions on Boeing 737 MAX

FILE PHOTO: A Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft is parked at a Boeing production facility in Renton
FILE PHOTO: A Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft is parked at a Boeing production facility in Renton, Washington, U.S., March 11, 2019. REUTERS/David Ryder/File Photo

April 11, 2019

By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Aviation Administration will hold a meeting Friday with major U.S. airlines that fly now grounded Boeing 737 MAX airplanes and three major pilots’ unions, the agency confirmed.

The meeting with safety representatives from the airlines and unions is set for three hours at FAA headquarters in Washington and will include American Airlines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines Co and officials from the three unions.

More than 300 Boeing 737 MAX jets have been grounded worldwide after nearly 350 people died in two crashes, one in Indonesia in October and one in Ethiopia last month. The FAA is also convening a joint review with aviation regulators from China, Europe, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia, Ethiopia and other countries.

American and United have canceled flights through early June, while Southwest has canceled flights until the end of May because of the 737 MAX grounding.

Boeing said it has reprogrammed software on its 737 MAX passenger jet to prevent erroneous data from triggering an anti-stall system that is under mounting scrutiny following the two deadly nose-down crashes and revised pilot training. On April 1, Boeing said it delayed submitting the proposed revisions to the FAA for approval.

The FAA said the meeting is to help “the FAA to gather facts, information, and individual views to further understand their views as FAA decides what needs to be done before returning the aircraft to service.” The FAA added it “continues to gather all available information and data in considering the return of the 737 MAX to service.”

Dennis Tajer, spokesman for the Allied Pilots Association that represents pilots at American Airlines, said he expected the union would be able to “provide feedback and input regarding pilot training related to the 737 MAX.” The airlines did not immediately comment.

Federal prosecutors aided by the FBI, the Transportation Department inspector general’s office and a blue-ribbon panel are also reviewing the plane’s certification and other issues surrounding the 737 MAX.

Lawmakers and the National Transportation Safety Board are also reviewing the FAA’s certification process that delegates some tasks to the airplane manufacturers.

(Reporting by David Shepardson in Washington; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Source: OANN

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Members of The Cranberries, bassist Mike Hogan, drummer Fergal Lawler and guitarist Noel Hogan speak to Reuters during an interview in London
Members of The Cranberries, bassist Mike Hogan, drummer Fergal Lawler and guitarist Noel Hogan speak to Reuters during an interview in London, Britain, April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Gerhard Mey

April 26, 2019

By Hanna Rantala

LONDON (Reuters) – Irish rockers The Cranberries are saying goodbye with their final album released on Friday, a poignant tribute to lead singer Dolores O’Riordan who died last year.

“In the End” is the eighth studio album from the band that rose to fame in the early 1990s with hits likes “Zombie” and “Linger”, and includes the final recordings by O’Riordan, who drowned in a London hotel bath in January 2018 due to alcohol intoxication.

Work on the album began during a 2017 tour and by that winter, O’Riordan and guitarist Neil Hogan had penned and demoed 11 tracks.

With O’Riordan’s vocals recorded, Hogan, bassist Mike Hogan and drummer Fergal Lawler completed the album in tribute to her.

“When we realized how strong the songs were, that was the deciding factor really… There was no point… trying to ruin the legacy of the band,” Noel Hogan said in an interview.

“It was obvious that Dolores wanted this album done because when you hear the album, you hear the songs and how strong they are, and she was very, very excited to get in and record this.”

The Cranberries formed in Limerick in 1989 with another singer. O’Riordan replaced him a year later and the group went on to become Ireland’s best-selling rock band after U2, selling more than 40 million records.

O’Riordan, known for her strong distinctive voice singing about relationships or political violence, was 46 when she died.

“She was actually in quite a good place mentally. She was feeling quite content and strong and looking forward to a new phase of her life,” Lawler said.

“A lot of the lyrics in this album are about things ending… people might read into it differently but it was a phase of her personal life that she was talking about.”

The group previously announced their intention to split after the release of “In The End”.

“We are absolutely gutted we can’t play (the songs) live because that’s something that’s been a massive part of this band from day one,” Noel Hogan said.

“A few people have said to us about maybe even doing a one off where you have different vocalists… as kind of guests of ours. A year ago that’s definitely something we weren’t going to entertain but I don’t know, I think it’s something we need to go away and take time off for the summer and have a think about.”

Critics have generally given positive reviews of the album; NME described it as “(seeing) the band’s career go full-circle” while the Irish Times called it “an unexpected late career high and a remarkable swan song for O’Riordan”.

Their early songs still play on the radio. This week, “Dreams” was performed at the funeral of journalist Lyra McKee, who was shot dead in Londonderry last week as she watched Irish nationalist youths attack police following a raid.

“We wrote them as kids, as a hobby and 30 years later they are on radio and on TV, like all the time… That’s far more than any of us ever thought we would have,” Noel Hogan said.

“That would make Dolores really happy because she was very precious about those songs. Her babies, she called them and to have that hopefully long after we’re gone… that’s all any band can wish for.”

(Reporting by Hanna Rantala; additoinal reporting by Marie-Louise Gumuchian; Writing by Marie-Louise Gumuchian; Editing by Susan Fenton)

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2020 Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren participates in the She the People Presidential Forum in Houston
2020 Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren participates in the She the People Presidential Forum in Houston, Texas, U.S. April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Loren Elliott

April 26, 2019

By Joshua Schneyer and M.B. Pell

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Senator Elizabeth Warren will introduce a bill Friday that offers new protections for U.S. military families facing unsafe housing, following a series of Reuters reports revealing squalid conditions in privately managed base homes.

The Reuters reports and later Congressional hearings detailed widespread hazards including lead paint exposure, vermin infestations, collapsing ceilings, mold and maintenance lapses in privatized base housing communities that serve some 700,000 U.S. military family members.

(View Warren’s military housing bill here. https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dy5aht)

(Read Reuters’ Ambushed at Home series on military housing here. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/usa-military)

The Massachusetts Democrat’s bill would mandate both regular and unannounced spot inspections of base homes by certified, independent inspectors, holding landlords accountable for quickly fixing hazards. The military’s privatization program for years allowed real estate firms to operate base housing with scant oversight, Reuters found, leaving some tenants in unsafe homes with little recourse against landlords.

The bill would also require the Department of Defense and its private housing operators to publish reports annually detailing housing conditions, tenant complaints, maintenance response times and the financial incentives companies receive at each base. The provisions aim to enhance transparency of housing deals whose finances and operations the military had allowed to remain largely confidential under a privatization program since the late 1990s.

The measure would also require private landlords to cover moving costs for at-risk families, and healthcare costs for people with medical conditions resulting from unsafe base housing, ensuring they receive continuing coverage even after they leave the homes or the military.

“This bill will eliminate the kind of corner-cutting and neglect the Defense Department should never have let these private housing partners get away with in the first place,” Warren said in a statement Friday.

The proposed legislation comes after February Senate hearings where Warren, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who is seeking the Democratic nomination for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, slammed private real estate firms for endangering service families, and sought answers about why military branches weren’t providing more oversight.

Her legislation would direct the Defense Department to allow local housing code enforcers onto federal bases, following concerns they were sometimes denied access. Warren’s office said a companion bill in the House of Representatives would be introduced by Rep. Deb Haaland, Democrat of New Mexico.

In response to the housing crisis, military branches are developing a tenant bill of rights and hiring hundreds of new housing staff. The branches recently dispatched commanders to survey base housing worldwide for safety hazards, resulting in thousands of work orders and hundreds of tenants being moved. The Defense Department has pledged to renegotiate its 50-year contracts with private real estate firms.

Congress has been quick to take its own measures. Earlier legislation proposed by senators Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris of California, along with Mark Warner and Tim Kaine of Virginia, would compel base commanders to withhold rent payments and incentive fees from the private ventures if they allow home hazards to persist.

(Editing by Ronnie Greene)

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FILE PHOTO: Offices of Deloitte are seen in London
FILE PHOTO: Offices of Deloitte are seen in London, Britain, September 25, 2017. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By Noor Zainab Hussain and Tanishaa Nadkar

(Reuters) – Deloitte quit as Ferrexpo’s auditor on Friday, knocking its shares by more than 20 percent, days after saying it was unable to conclude whether the iron ore miner’s CEO controlled a charity being investigated over its use of company donations.

Blooming Land, which coordinates Ferrexpo’s Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) program, came under scrutiny after auditors found holes in the charity’s statements.

Ferrexpo on Tuesday said findings of an ongoing independent investigation launched in February indicated some Blooming Land funds could have been “misappropriated”. It did not provide any details or publish its findings.

Shares in Ferrexpo, the third largest exporter of pellets to the global steel industry, were 23.4 percent lower at 206.1 pence at 1022 GMT following news of Deloitte’s resignation.

“Ferrexpo’s shares are deeply discounted vs peers … following the resignation of Deloitte, we expect downside risks to dominate Ferrexpo’s shares near term.” JP Morgan analyst Dominic O’Kane said in a note on Friday.

Swiss-headquartered Ferrexpo did not provide a reason for the resignation of Deloitte, which declined to comment, while Blooming Land did not respond to a request for comment.

Funding for Blooming Land’s CSR activities is provided by one of Ferrexpo’s units in Ukraine and Khimreaktiv LLC, an entity ultimately controlled by Ferrexpo’s CEO and majority owner Kostyantin Zhevago, Ferrexpo said on Tuesday.

Ferrexpo’s board has found that Zhevago did not have significant influence or control over the charity, but Deloitte said it was unable reach a conclusion on this.

Reuters was not immediately able to contact Zhevago.

In a qualified opinion, a statement addressing an incomplete audit, Deloitte said it had been unable to conclude whether $33.5 million of CSR donations to Blooming Land between 2017 and 2018 was used for “legitimate business payments for charitable purposes”.

Deloitte said on Tuesday that total CSR payments made to Blooming Land by Ferrexpo since 2013 total about $110 million.

Ferrexpo, whose major mines are in Ukraine, has said that the investigation was ongoing and new evidence pointed to potential discrepancies.

Zhevago, 45, who ranked 1,511 on Forbes magazine’s list of billionaires for 2019 with a net worth of $1.4 billion, owns the FC Vorskla soccer club and has been a member of Ukraine’s parliament since 1998.

(Reporting by Noor Zainab Hussain and Tanishaa Nadkar in Bengaluru and additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk in Kiev; editing by Gopakumar Warrier, Bernard Orr)

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Children walk past a damaged building in the aftermath of the Cyclone Kenneth in Pemba
Children walk past a damaged building in the aftermath of the Cyclone Kenneth in Pemba, Mozambique April 26, 2019 in this still image obtained from social media. SolidarMed via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. MANDATORY CREDIT. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES

April 26, 2019

By Emma Rumney and Stephen Eisenhammer

JOHANNESBURG/LUANDA (Reuters) – Cyclone Kenneth killed at least one person and left a trail of destruction in northern Mozambique, destroying houses, ripping up trees and knocking out power, authorities said on Friday.

The cyclone brought storm surges and wind gusts of up to 280 km per hour (174 mph) when it made landfall on Thursday evening, after killing three people in the island nation of Comoros.

It was the most powerful storm on record to hit Mozambique’s northern coast and came just six weeks after Cyclone Idai battered the impoverished nation, causing devastating floods and killing more than 1,000 people across a swathe of southern Africa.

The World Food Programme warned that Kenneth could dump as much as 600 millimeters of rain on the region over the next 10 days – twice that brought by Cyclone Idai.

One woman in the port town of Pemba died after being hit by a falling tree, the Emergency Operations Committee for Cabo Delgado (COE) said in a statement, while another person was injured.

In rural areas outside Pemba, many homes are made of mud. In the main town on the island of Ibo, 90 percent of the houses were destroyed, officials said. Around 15,000 people were out in the open or in “overcrowded” shelters and there was a need for tents, food and water, they said.

There were also reports of a large number of homes and some infrastructure destroyed in Macomia district, a mainland district adjacent to Ibo.

A local group, the Friends of Pemba Association, had earlier reported that they could not reach people in Muidumbe, a district further inland.

Mark Lowcock, United Nations under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, warned the storm could require another major humanitarian operation in Mozambique.

“Cyclone Kenneth marks the first time two cyclones have made landfall in Mozambique during the same season, further stressing the government’s limited resources,” he said in a statement.

FLOOD WARNINGS

Shaquila Alberto, owner of the beach-front Messano Flower Lodge in Macomia, said there were many fallen trees there, and in rural areas people’s homes had been damaged. Some areas of nearby Pemba had no power.

“Even my workers, they said the roof and all the things fell down,” she said by phone.

Further south, in Pemba, Elton Ernesto, a receptionist at Raphael’s Hotel, said there were fallen trees but not too much damage. The hotel had power and water, he said, while phones rang in the background. “The rain has stopped,” he added.

However Michael Charles, an official for the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), said heavy rains over the next few days were likely to bring a “second wave of destruction” in the form of flooding.

“The houses are not all solid, and the topography is very sandy,” Charles said.

In the days after Cyclone Idai, heavy inland rains prompted rivers to burst their banks, submerging entire villages, cutting areas off from aid and ruining crops. There were concerns the same could happen again in northern Mozambique.

Before Kenneth hit, the government and aid workers moved around 30,000 people to safer buildings such as schools, however authorities said that around 680,000 people were in the path of the storm.

(Reporting by Emma Rumney and Stephen Eisenhammer; Writing by Emma Rumney; Editing by Janet Lawrence and Alexandra Zavis)

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A worker holds a nozzle to pump petrol into a vehicle at a fuel station in Mumbai
FILE PHOTO: A worker holds a nozzle to pump petrol into a vehicle at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas

April 26, 2019

By Manoj Kumar and Nidhi Verma

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Surging global oil prices will pose a first big challenge to India’s new government, whoever wins an election now under way, especially as domestic prices have been allowed to lag, meaning consumers are in for a painful surge as they catch up.

For oil-import dependent India, higher global prices could lead to a weaker rupee, higher inflation, the ruling out of interest rate cuts and could further weigh on twin current account and budget deficits, economists warned.

But compounding the future pain, state-run fuel suppliers and retailers have held off passing on to consumers the higher prices during a staggered general election, which began on April 11 and ends on May 23, according to sources familiar with the situation.

That delay is expected to be unwound once the election is over. And there could be additional price increases to make up for losses or profits missed during the period of delayed increases, the sources said.

In some major Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, pump prices are adjusted periodically so they move largely in tandem with international crude prices.

That was what was supposed to happen in India but the election means there have been many days when pump prices have been unchanged.

In New Delhi, for example, while crude oil prices have gone up by nearly $9 a barrel, or about 12 percent, in the past six weeks, gasoline prices have only risen by 0.47 rupees a liter, or 0.6 percent.

State-controlled fuel suppliers and retailers declined to say why they had delayed price increases, or discuss whether there has been any pressure from the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A government spokesman declined to comment.

The opposition Congress party said Modi’s government was violating its own policy of daily price revision by advising the state oil companies to hold prices steady.

“The government should cut fuel taxes otherwise consumers will have to pay much higher oil prices once the elections are over,” said Akhilesh Pratap Singh, a senior leader of the Congress party.

(GRAPHIC: India Polls: Fuel price hike lags crude surge – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XLlxik)

Nitin Goyal, treasurer at the All India Petroleum Dealers Association, representing fuel stations in 25 states, said prices were similarly held down for 19 days in the southern state of Karnataka last year, when it held state assembly elections.

Only for them to surge after the vote.

“Consumers should be ready for a rude shock of a massive jump in retail prices, similar to the level we have seen in the Karnataka state election,” Goyal said.

‘CREDIT NEGATIVE’

Sri Paravaikkarasu, director for Asia oil at Singapore-based consultancy FGE, said retail prices of gasoline and gasoil prices would have been up to 6 percent, or about 4 rupee, higher if they had been allowed to rise in line with global prices.

“Indian pump prices have failed to keep up with the recent uptrend in crude prices,” Paravaikkarasu said.

“With the country’s general elections underway, the incumbent government has been keeping pump prices relatively unchanged.”

India had switched to a daily price revision in June 2017 from a revision every two weeks, as the government allowed retailers to set prices.

But the government faced protests last October when retailers raised prices by up to 10 rupees a liter after the crude oil price went above $80 a barrel, forcing it to cut fuel taxes.

Global prices rose to their highest level in 2019 on Thursday, days after the United States announced all Iran sanction waivers would end by May, pressuring importers including India to stop buying Tehran’s oil. [O/R]

Higher oil prices will mean Asia’s third largest economy is likely to see growth of less than 7 percent rate this fiscal year, economists said. Growth slowed to 6.6 percent in the October-December quarter, the slowest in five quarters.

Rating agency CARE has warned that a 10 percent rise in global oil prices could increase demand for dollars, putting pressure on the rupee and widening the current account deficit.

India’s oil import bill rose by nearly one-third in the fiscal year ending March 31 to $140.5 billion, against $108 billion the previous year.

“The increase in international oil prices is a credit negative for the Indian economy,” ICRA, the Indian arm of the Fitch rating agency, said in a note.

“Every $10/ bbl increase in crude oil prices increases the fiscal deficit by about 0.1 percent of GDP.”

Any big price rise would also build a case for the central bank to keep rates steady, or even raise them.

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee, which cut the benchmark policy repo rate by 25 basis points this month, warned that rising oil and food prices could push up inflation.

Policymakers are worried that a sustained increase in the oil price in the range of $70-75/barrel or higher can move the rupee down by 3-4 percent on an annual basis.

The rupee has depreciated by 1.24 percent against the dollar since a year high in mid-March.

($1 = 70.1800 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Manoj Kumar and Nidhi Verma; Editing by Martin Howell and Rob Birsel)

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