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Strong stock and bond markets at odds over global growth

Traders work on the floor at the NYSE in New York
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., April 18, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

April 21, 2019

By David Randall

NEW YORK (Reuters) – It looks like something has to give in global markets.

Stocks and bonds around the world have rallied atypically together since the start of the year, rewarding investors both bullish and bearish on the direction of global growth.

The main catalyst for the gains was the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision in early January to pause its tightening policy, after four interest rate increases in 2018 raised fears it was being too aggressive as the economy cooled and inflation remained minimal. Those fears helped send global markets into a tailspin in December.

Yet with the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 near a record level and corporate junk bonds notching new highs, the question stock and bond investors are asking is whether the Fed’s next move will be a rate cut that further propels risk assets or a rate hike that cuts into the stock market’s momentum.

A move by the Fed on interest rates or a communication misstep by the central bank would likely end either the rally in the stock market or in investment-grade bonds by the end of the year, restoring the traditional give-and-take between risk and safety, investors say.

“The Fed is between a rock and a hard place,” said Kathleen Gaffney, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Management in Boston. “They can’t go lower because there are signs that inflation is rising and they can’t go higher because of global political uncertainty. It leaves the market on pause.”

The U.S. central bank has said it will soon stop letting bonds bought during its “quantitative easing” period following the financial crisis roll off its balance sheet, which also helped push yields on safe havens like Treasuries lower and acted as a tailwind for riskier assets.

Gaffney said the Fed will likely have to raise rates again because of rising wages and other forms of inflation by the end of the year, adding that such a move will “pierce” the high valuations in both the stocks and bond markets.

TWIN RALLY

The rolling four-month percentage change in the price of the S&P 500 and the 10-Year Treasury note have both been positive for three straight months, according to a Reuters analysis. That is the longest such streak since a five-month run that ended in August 2017, it showed.

In that same 2017 period, the S&P 500 gained and 10-year Treasury yields fell as the market digested conflicting economic reports during the first year of the Trump administration, before the Federal Reserve in September began quantitative tightening that resulted in bond yields rising as the S&P 500 continued to rally.

Since January equity markets around the world have made up much of the ground they lost during a wrenching fourth quarter of 2018 that sent the U.S. stock market to the brink of a bear market.

The S&P 500 and Europe’s STOXX 600 are up almost 16% year to date, while stock indexes in China are up nearly 30%.

The ICE Merrill Lynch U.S. high yield index is up 8.6% year to date while the Merrill Lynch World sovereign bond index is up almost 1.5%.

World stocks vs bonds – https://tmsnrt.rs/2IrqXeF

A rally in benchmark 10-year Treasury notes, usually seen as a safe haven, undercuts the picture of a “risk on” market. Their yields have slid from 2.69% at the start of the year to as low as 2.34% in late March.

“At this point in the cycle, equity investors are trying to take any incremental news positively while fixed income investors are not,” said Jen Robertson, a portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Asset Management in London. “It’s quite delicate at the moment and any negative news out of first quarter earnings could impact this sharp bounce.”

Further uncertainty due to the economic impact of the UK leaving the European Union, which has now been pushed back to Oct. 31, or a deterioration in U.S.-China trade talks could be a “shock to the system” and derail both stocks and bonds, she said.

The spread between U.S. three-month bills and 10-year notes turned negative for the first time since 2007 in March, a bearish sign as a yield curve inversion has signaled an upcoming economic recession in the past.

The move initially boosted stock prices as investors predicted it would hem the Fed in from future interest rate hikes. But equities could fall soon if recession fears continue to grow, said Hiroaki Hayashi, managing director of Fukoku Capital Management in Tokyo.

“If you look at the past experiences, share prices have often rallied six to nine months after the yield curve initially inverted before entering a major correction. I believe we are exactly at such a phase now.”

Despite outsized gains this year, financial markets have not indicated investors have faith that the global economy can grow without historically low interest rates a decade after the end of the Great Recession, said Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

“The bull market we’ve had for the past 10 years is essentially because of really low interest rates,” Bahuguna said.

“I don’t think that equilibrium will last much longer,” she added, saying rising inflation and low unemployment could soon test global markets’ ability to cope with tighter monetary policy.

(Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo and Terence Gabriel in New York.; Editing by Alden Bentley and Tom Brown)

Source: OANN

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Renault aims to restart Nissan merger talks within 12 months: FT

FILE PHOTO: The logo of French car manufacturer Renault is seen at a dealership of the company in Illkirch-Graffenstaden near Strasbourg
FILE PHOTO: The logo of French car manufacturer Renault is seen at a dealership of the company in Illkirch-Graffenstaden near Strasbourg, France, January 10, 2019. REUTERS/Vincent Kessler/File Photo

March 27, 2019

(Reuters) – France’s Renault SA intends to restart merger talks with Japanese automaker Nissan Motor Co Ltd within 12 months, after which it will set sight on a bid to buy Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing sources.

Renault and Fiat did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comments. Nissan said it did not comment on rumors.

(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Source: OANN

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US Sets Sights on China in New Electric Vehicle Push

U.S. government officials plan to meet with executives from automakers and lithium miners in early May as part of a first-of-its-kind effort to launch a national electric vehicle supply chain strategy, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

While Volkswagen AG, Tesla Inc and other electric-focused automakers and battery manufacturers are expanding in the United States and investing billions in the new technology, they are reliant on mineral imports without a major push to develop more domestic mines and processing facilities. For a graphic, click https://tmsnrt.rs/2Azl09N

China already dominates the electric vehicle supply chain. It produces nearly two-thirds of the world's lithium-ion batteries - compared to 5 percent for the United States - and controls most of the world's lithium processing facilities, according to data from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, which tracks prices for lithium and other commodities and is organizing the Washington, D.C., event.

U.S. imports of lithium have nearly doubled since 2014 due in part to rising demand from Tesla, SK Innovation Co and others building battery plants in the country, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

"We need to find ways to more efficiently develop our nation's domestic critical mineral supply because these resources are vital to both our national security and our economy," North Dakota Senator John Hoeven, a member of the Senate's Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in a statement to Reuters when asked about the meeting.

Hoeven and Senator Lisa Murkowski, chair of the Senate's energy committee, have been invited to attend the meeting. Officials from the U.S. Department of State, Department of Energy, Department of the Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey plan to attend, according to two of the sources.

As part of the effort, Murkowski is expected to introduce standalone legislation aimed at streamlining the permitting process for lithium and other mines, bolstering state and federal studies of domestic supplies of critical minerals and encouraging mineral recycling, among other topics, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Some of those efforts were part of broader energy legislation in prior Congresses that failed, and Murkowski hopes that similar legislation will draw broader attention to the topic, according to the source.

Five companies, including Lithium Americas Corp, are developing U.S. lithium projects that plan to use new technologies to extract the metal from clays, bromine and even oilfield waste, processes not common elsewhere and considered game-changing by some analysts. But not all of them have secured financing. For a graphic, click https://tmsnrt.rs/2CXdGWN

If all five come online by 2022 as planned, the country would produce at least 77,900 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent each year, making the country one of the world's largest lithium producers. Lithium development projects have historically faced numerous obstacles, so that production number is far from guaranteed.

"Creating a domestic electric vehicle supply chain is the perfect blueprint to make America great again," said Jesse Edmondson, chief executive officer of U.S. Critical Minerals, a start-up firm buying lithium mineral rights in the U.S. Southeast.

Representatives from Tesla, Ford Motor Co and General Motors Co plan to attend the Washington meeting and discuss with federal officials potential policy changes that could encourage development of a domestic supply chain to mine, process and supply lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite for battery manufacturers and automakers, according to the sources.

Tesla and GM did not respond to requests for comment.

A Ford spokesperson said that the company regularly engages with stakeholders on various supply chain topics.

Albemarle Corp and Livent Corp, two U.S.-based companies that mine lithium in South America, also plan to attend, as do executives from the handful of lithium mines under development in the United States, according to the sources.

"We are looking forward to participating in a forum with policy makers and industry participants who are focused on ensuring the U.S. remains a leader in the development of the electric vehicle industry," said Paul Graves, CEO of Livent, which has said it is eyeing expansion opportunities.

Albemarle, which operates the only existing lithium mine in the United States, declined to comment.

The one-day meeting will be divided into morning workshops focused on financing and permitting obstacles, with one-on-one afternoon meetings between regulators and industry executives, according to the sources.

"We're trying to make sure policymakers have an understanding of this complex situation," said James Calaway, chairman of ioneer Ltd, which is developing a lithium project in Nevada that also hold a large concentration of boron, used in a plethora of consumer goods.

In Arkansas, Standard Lithium Ltd is developing a pilot project to extract lithium from the bromine waste of a Lanxess AG chemical facility.

"We have an opportunity to take a huge step forward in lithium production, and we want to support that," Asa Hutchinson, the governor of Arkansas, told Reuters.

Hutchinson and some other U.S. officials want U.S. lithium projects to stand alone without financial support from the government, a potential impediment as financiers often look for even tacit government support before investing in new, unproven technologies.

"There's a real opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain if the United States wakes up," said Jonathan Evans, president of Lithium Americas, which is developing a lithium project in Nevada expected to open by 2022.

Source: NewsMax America

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Pinterest sets IPO price range between $15-$17 per share

FILE PHOTO: A Pinterest banner hangs on the facade of the NYSE in New York
FILE PHOTO: A Pinterest banner hangs on the facade of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 22, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

April 8, 2019

(Reuters) – Image sharing website Pinterest Inc set a price range of $15 to $17 per share for its initial public offering of 75 million shares, as per a filing http://bit.ly/2OZLmYU with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

At the upper end of its target range, the company would be valued at $9 billion and could raise $1.3 billion in net proceeds.

Pinterest, which was valued at $12 billion in its last fundraising round in 2017, will list under the symbol “PINS” on the New York Stock Exchange.

Reuters had reported in January Pinterest could raise around $1.5 billion and that the IPO was likely to come in the first six months of 2019.

The company reported annual revenue of $755.9 million in 2018, up 60 percent from a year earlier. But it remains unprofitable even though its net loss narrowed to $62.97 million in 2018 from $130 million a year earlier.

The company will go public with a dual-class share structure to concentrate voting power with Class B shareholders, which include Co-founder, President and Chief Executive Officer Benjamin Silbermann.

(Reporting by John Benny and Aparajita Saxena in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

Source: OANN

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Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh takes indefinite leave of absence amid book controversy

Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh announced on Monday that she's taking an indefinite leave of absence from office after it was revealed she received $500,000 from the University of Maryland Medical System in critics have called a "self-dealing" book sale.

Pugh's office in a statement said the mayor, a Democrat, has been "advised by her physicians that she needs to take time to recover and focus on her health," and said she felt as though she was unable to fulfill her obligations as mayor due to deteriorating health brought on by a recent case of pneumonia.

City Council President Jack Young will take over Pugh's day-to-day responsibilities, according to the statement.

BALTIMORE MAYOR'S $500G DEAL FOR 'HEALTHY HOLLY' CHILDREN'S BOOKS DRAWS SCRUTINY

In a letter released earlier Monday, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, called on the state prosecutor to investigate allegations of self-dealing by Pugh. State Comptroller Peter Franchot, a Democrat, urged the mayor to step down immediately.

Hogan and Franchot's calls came hours after health care firm Kaiser Permanente disclosed to The Baltimore Sun that between 2015 and 2018, it paid $114,000 for roughly 20,000 copies of Pugh's self-published "Healthy Holly" children's book series.

Since 2011, Pugh has received $500,000 for selling the books to the University of Maryland Medical System (UMMS), The Associated Press reported. The $4 billion hospital network, one of the largest private employers in the state, reportedly paid Pugh for 100,000 copies of her books between 2011 and 2018.

Pugh, who sat on the system's board since 2001, became Baltimore's mayor in 2016. The next year, Baltimore's spending board, which is controlled by the mayor, awarded a $48 million contract to the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of the Mid-Atlantic States Inc. Kaiser previously held that contract.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU DENIES WRONGDOING, REFUSES TO APOLOGIZE IN RARE ADDRESS OF CORRUPTION SCANDAL THREATENING HIS POLITICAL LIFE

Kaiser Permanente spokesman Scott Lusk told the AP his company "purchased the books from Healthy Holly, LLC" — Pugh's firm, which she has said was meant to encourage healthy lifestyles for youngsters and their families.

Additionally, The Sun reported that CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield, another city health provider, effectively bought Pugh's roughly 20-page illustrated books for $14,500 in 2011 and 2014. In an email, CareFirst said it made contributions to Associated Black Charities, a nonprofit that manages the city's Children and Youth Fund, to fund its purchase and distribution of books.

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The firm Pugh identified as her books' printer said it produced only 60,000 copies and did not have any more orders from Pugh. She had acknowledged sales of her book to UMMS and said they were meant to be distributed to city schools and daycares.

Pugh, at a news conference last week, described the book deal with the university-based health care system as a "regrettable mistake," and apologized for "any lack of confidence or disappointment" citizens and colleagues may have felt.

Fox News' Brie Stimson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: Fox News Politics

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Police probe possible hate symbols at Arizona synagogue

Flagstaff police are investigating what they say appear to be hate symbols at a synagogue.

Officers responded to the Chabad of Flagstaff on Monday and found multiple rooms damaged.

Police say paint smeared on windows and carvings in a wall appeared to be swastikas. The symbols aren't well-defined in photos released by the Flagstaff Police Department.

Rabbi Dovie Shapiro says the Jewish community is shocked and disturbed by what he called an act of hate.

Police say the damage occurred sometime between Friday and Monday when a construction crew working at the site was off-duty.

Police spokesman Sgt. Charles Hernandez says officers have collected fingerprints, biological evidence and video footage to try to determine who is responsible. He says the damage is at least $1,000.

Police don't believe anything was stolen from the property.

Source: Fox News National

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Why Trump's Campus Free Speech Order Is a Big Risk

Why Trump's Campus Free Speech Order Is a Big Risk

AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

In some instances, the Trump administration has intervened successfully on campus free speech issues, say Suzanne Nossel and Jonathan Friedman of PEN America. But If the President ireally wants to better the climate for free speech on campus, a one-sided executive order could chill more speech than it frees, they write.

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A worker walks on the roof of a new home under construction in Carlsbad
FILE PHOTO: A worker walks on the roof of a new home under construction in Carlsbad, California September 22, 2014. REUTERS/Mike Blake

April 26, 2019

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is growing at a 2.08% annualized pace in the second quarter based on upbeat data on durable goods orders and new home sales in March, the New York Federal Reserve’s Nowcast model showed on Friday.

This was faster than the 1.92% growth rate calculated by the N.Y. Fed model the week before.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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Extraordinary European Union leaders summit in Brussels
FILE PHOTO: Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte arrives at an extraordinary European Union leaders summit to discuss Brexit, in Brussels, Belgium April 10, 2019. REUTERS/Yves Herman

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said on Friday he had assured China’s Huawei Technologies that it would not face discrimination in the rollout of Italy’s 5G telecoms network.

Conte was speaking on a visit to China where he said he met Huawei’s chief executive, Ren Zhengfei. The prime minister’s comments were carried in Italy by TV broadcaster Sky Italia.

“I told him that we have adopted some precautions, some measures to protect our interests that demand very high levels of security … not only from Huawei but any company entering into the 5G arena,” he said.

Huawei, the world’s biggest producer of telecoms equipment, is under intense scrutiny after the United States told allies not to use its technology because of fears it could be a vehicle for Chinese spying. Huawei has categorically denied this.

(Writing by by Mark Bendeich; Editing by Angelo Amante)

Source: OANN

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U.S. President Trump departs for travel to Indianapolis from the White House in Washington
U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters as he departs for travel to Indianapolis, Indiana from the White House in Washington, U.S., April 26, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

April 26, 2019

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump on Friday was expected to announce his intention to revoke the United States’ status as a signatory of the Arms Trade Treaty, which was signed in 2013 by then-President Barack Obama but never ratified by Congress, two U.S. officials said.

Trump was expected to announce the decision in a speech in Indianapolis, to the National Rifle Association, the officials said. The NRA, a powerful gun lobby group, has long been opposed to the treaty, which was negotiated at the United Nations.

(Reporting By Steve Holland; Editing by Bill Trott)

Source: OANN

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A remote controlled robot for the 'Isotopium: Chernobyl' game is seen at the game's location in Brovary
A remote controlled robot for the ‘Isotopium: Chernobyl’ game is seen at the game’s location in Brovary, Ukraine April 25, 2019. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

April 26, 2019

By Margaryta Chornokondratenko

KIEV (Reuters) – A Ukrainian computer game that brings to life a town abandoned after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster may not sound like everyone’s idea of fun but has attracted 60,000 people globally since its launch in October.

Players of “Isotopium: Chernobyl” drive tanks around the ghost town of Prypyat near Chernobyl, knocking out competitors as they search for an energy source called isotopium and collecting points every time they find some.

While the game takes its theme from the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl in northern Ukraine, which marked its 33rd anniversary on Friday, it was also inspired by the 2009 science fiction film “Avatar”.

Newcomers to the game think they have entered a virtual world when in fact they are controlling a real robot, equipped with a camera and computer, which makes its way around a model of the town rendered down to the tiniest detail.

“When playing our game, for the first 5-10 minutes many players don’t understand that it is not fictional,” said the game’s co-founder Sergey Beskrestnov. “They message us saying: ‘You have cool texture, you have good graphics, your designer is good, well done. You have a cool operating system.’

“People then reply: ‘It is not an operating system, it is real,’ and the player can’t believe it is real,” said Beskrestnov, speaking mid-game from Prypyat city square as he towers over surrounding five-storey buildings.

Kiev-born Beskrestnov was just 12 years old when on April 26, 1986 a botched test at the nuclear plant in the then Soviet Union sent clouds of smoldering nuclear material across large swathes of Europe, forced over 50,000 people, including Beskrestnov’s family, to evacuate and poisoned unknown numbers of workers involved in its clean-up.

Beskrestnov and his partner Alexey Fateyev used Google maps and hundreds of pictures from the Chernobyl area to recreate Prypyat landmarks, including residential buildings, a hotel, concert hall, amusement park and a stadium.

The game’s real-scale model occupies a 180 square meter (1,938 sq. ft) basement of a residential building in the Ukraine city of Brovary, just 150 km (93 miles) from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and 30 km east of Kiev.

Miniature radioactivity warning signs, graffiti on the walls of abandoned buildings and tables and chairs left scattered inside a small cafe all add to the creepy atmosphere of a once lively town.

“It’s a really neat concept …,” Shaun Prescott wrote in a review of the game published by PC Gamer magazine in January. “Controlling the tanks is kinda cumbersome, but they are tanks, after all.”

An attentive player will notice at least one inaccuracy – the real Chernobyl nuclear power plant is not located in town as it is in the game.

It costs $9 to immerse in the atmosphere of a post-apocalyptic town for an hour but only 20 people at a time can play simultaneously. Beskrestnov’s company, Remote Games, said 62,615 people around the world have registered to play the game, including around 15,000 in France and 10,000 in the United States.

A camera fixed on top of a moving tank broadcasts high quality signal in real time, allowing players from as far apart as Australia and Canada enjoy the game without facing any time delay in delivering video signals.

Its creators next ambition is to devise a game featuring the colonization of Mars in which 1,000 people will be able to simultaneously control robots on different missions involved in the operation.

“Many people advise us to contact Elon Musk directly because it resonates his dreams and ideas,” Beskrestnov jokes.    

(Editing by Susan Fenton)

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FILE PHOTO: A Starbucks sign is show on one of the companies stores in Los Angeles, California
FILE PHOTO: A Starbucks sign is show on one of the companies stores in Los Angeles, California, U.S. October 19,2018. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Initial optimism over first-quarter results from Starbucks Corp was waning fast on Wall Street on Friday, as analysts questioned the longer-term prospects of its new sales push given subdued overall customer traffic numbers especially in China.

The company on Thursday beat brokerage estimates for quarterly same-store sales on the back of demand for its new Cloud Macchiato, Matcha tea and cold brews in the United States.

However, BTIG’s Peter Saleh was one of a number of sector analysts who said while customers forking out for higher-priced new drinks had helped drive growth in same-store sales, “anemic” traffic at cafes remained a concern.

He and others pointed to a 1 percent decline in footfall at cafes in the Chinese market, viewed as crucial to the chain’s growth for the foreseeable future.

More broadly, transaction numbers, the substitute analysts use for customer traffic, were unchanged in all three of the company’s global regions.

Shares in the company, which hit a record high after the results on Thursday, fell 1 percent in morning trade.

“We remain cautious given near-term headwinds surrounding China, including cannibalization, increasing competition (and) a slowing economy,” Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan said.

Starbucks has also poured money into beefing up its delivery network in China as it battles with local startup Luckin Coffee, whose speedy growth led it to file for an IPO in the United States earlier this week.

New menu items and partnerships with delivery services, the heart of the company’s strategy to win back customers lost to artisanal coffee shops and cheaper fast-food rivals, did help Starbucks’ sales in its home market.

However, analysts said growth in China may continue to be subdued.

Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog said she expects store expansion in China to take priority over comparable sales growth.

She downgraded her rating on Starbucks’ to “market perform” from “outperform”, arguing that the company facing tough sales comparisons later on in 2019 from last year and the current rich valuation of shares meant the stock had limited room to rise.

“Investors will be hesitant to invest new money in a stock with a topline that, while still strong, is unlikely to meaningfully accelerate,” Herzog said.

Still, the company’s solid same-store growth in the United States, improving profit margins and a lower tax rate for the rest of the year led at least 6 Wall Street brokerages to raise their price targets on the stock to as high as $81.

11 of 29 brokerages rate Starbucks “buy” or higher, 17 “hold” and 1 “sell” or lower. Their median price target is $75.

(Reporting by Uday Sampath in Bengaluru)

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