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Political Centralization Ended the Roman Republic

Those that passionately advocate for political decentralization are often portrayed as fringe carpers whose ideas are entirely unworthy of consideration.

Indeed, the mainstream media and ruling class has repeatedly alleged that events like Brexit and Calexit would cause chaotic political shifts, and routinely deem supporters of such causes radical extremists or “Neo Confederates.” Many such individuals ascribe religious qualities to modern political unions, and denigrate anyone who dares to argue that political arrangements serve a utilitarian – rather than a sacramental – function.

Tactlessly, those who deride the supporters of federalism and political fragmentation imperil us all by ignoring the lessons of history. Candid scholars, on the other hand, recognize that several junctures from the past contradict the orthodox narrative against disunion and decentralized government. One such case was the demise of the Roman Republic, where it was actually the marked transition to political consolidation that caused the very chaos and bloodshed we are always told decentralization will bring.

In the decades prior to the end of the republic, citizens celebrated the Rome’s military might and European conquest. Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus, better known as Pompey the Great, used his uncanny military acumen to put down a series of slave rebellions known as the Servile Wars. An attempt to overthrow the Roman Republic, the Catiline Conspiracy, was swiftly exposed and suppressed by the Roman army. The subjugation of Gaul was completed in 52 BC, and Rome was the strongest power on earth. Roman patriotism among the plebian class was at an all-time high.

Through it all, the virtuous Cato cautioned that it was not the barbarians that Romans had to fear, but the one man who achieved such prestige as the result of their downfall – Gaius Julius Caesar. Claiming that Caesar sought only to elevate himself in political stature and usurp the power of the republic, Cato pleaded his fellow senators to curtail his political privileges, and eventually, to declare him an outlaw and confront him militarily. If left unopposed, he thought, Caesar would place all authority within the republic in his own hands.

And centralize Caesar did. Bestowed with the privileges of a dictator – a ruler with near unlimited power – he quickly made use of his newfound authority. A friend the plebian class, Caesar developed a cult of personality that allowed him to stretch his authority beyond all imaginable limits. Without Pompey in his way, there was little to stop him from doing so.

In one of his most significant acts as dictator, Caesar imposed several reforms that transformed the republic from a fragmented series of provinces into a single, unitary state. Prior to this overhaul, Rome’s provinces retained a substantial amount of autonomy. Italy especially had been a mosaic of independent regions and cultures, and its unification was consummated only through brutally accelerated violence, confiscation of property, and civil war.1

During his dictatorship, Caesar often made unilateral decisions behind closed doors, and issued edicts as if they had been adopted by the Roman Senate through legitimate constitutional processes. During his absences from Rome, his two non-senatorial advisors, Oppius and Balbus, also wielded unprecedented power. In the words of esteemed Roman scholar Ronald Syme, Caesar’s ascension was characterized by an elevation to supreme and personal rule, and the rise of a national, transformed Roman state.2

Because the Senate had been depleted in the wake of the civil war between Pompey and Caesar, the dictator made hundreds of new appointments, filling the assembly with Caesarian partisans who zealously backed his vision for political consolidation. Many of them were notoriously corrupt, and engaged in rampant extortion.3 Caesar eventually assumed the power to appoint all magistrates of the republic, effectively transitioning them from representatives of the people to fervent supporters of himself.

Caesar also passed a sumptuary law, limiting the citizens’ ability to purchase and consume various goods. He also planned grandiose construction projects, including a temple to himself known as the Forum of Caesar. Perhaps most significantly, though, he outlawed Rome’s professional guilds – associations that openly debated political topics of their day. Doing so, he believed, would root out all remaining opposition to the Caesarian regime.

In a move that was absolutely unprecedented in the Roman Republic, Caesar established a police force for the first time. For centuries, Roman cities and neighborhoods effectively policed themselves, and the patronage system that linked patricians with the plebeians protected the safety of the people. With the dictator’s climb to power, however, the iron hand of the enforcement state – which would be later expanded by Augustus – was established for the first time.

Despondent were those who resisted Caesar’s treacherous reign until the bitter end. Cato famously plunged his own sword into himself rather than live under Caesar’s unitary rule over Rome. The age’s best-known orator, Cicero, refused to join Caesar in the First Triumvirate because he believed it would undermine the republic and lead to the accumulation of too much power.4 In his last days, he condemned the dictator, sympathized with those that assassinated him, and worked to obstruct his successors. Though the Liberators that assassinated Caesar remained convinced that the republic’s traditions and customs must be preserved at all costs, they too fell prey to military alliance between Mark Antony and Octavian.

The path to Roman centralization was only made possible, however, because of a sizable political shift that transpired during the prior generation. Indeed, the undertakings of Lucius Cornelius Sulla did much to lay the groundwork for Caesar’s rise.

It was Sulla, after all, that first rallied his army to march on Rome in an unprecedented act of treason. After his military successes, he implemented an array of reforms to the Roman Constitution, including a revival of the malignant proscription system – which authorized the type of political purges Mark Antony and Augustus utilized and build upon. Additionally, it was Sulla that revived the dictatorship – where a single individual was granted near unlimited power over the state. In a manner that Caesar and Augustus came to emulate, Sulla achieved political prominence through military strength and political domination rather than republican virtue.

All of these factors, in combination, played crucial roles in the demise of the Roman Republic – a system of limited and divided political power, where the proclivities of the ambitious were at one time hindered by traditional restraints. In our contemporary age, where the number of potential Caesars has grown exponentially, it behooves us to avoid the pitfalls of political centralization and the calamity it has wrought upon western civilization.



On his way to bullhorn the White House, Alex Jones bumped into Max Keiser of MaxKeiser.com.

Source: InfoWars

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Suspects arrested after AK-47 fired outside Tennessee bar: police

A suspect in Nashville, Tenn., fired off an AK-47 outside a bar early Wednesday before fleeing the scene, police said.

Officers were patrolling the area around 2:15 p.m. when they observed a fight outside a nightclub. Security guards broke up the fight and three people walked away from the scene.

A suspect then got into an unmarked car, pulled out an AK-47 and fired several shots before leaving, police said. No one was injured and the suspects fled the scene, WKRN reported.

SUSPECTED FLORIDA GUNMAN LEGALLY BOUGHT AK-47-STYLE RIFLE WEEKS BEFORE SCHOOL SHOOTING, REPORT SAYS

The officers called in for backup and followed the vehicle. When more officers arrived, they conducted a traffic stop, WSMV reported. The three gave themselves up and officers found an AK-47 inside the car with spent casings, police said.

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The three suspects were taken into custody and are expected to be charged with wanton endangerment, firing a gun in city limits, and aggravated assault, WKRN reported. An investigation is ongoing. No additional information was immediately available.

Source: Fox News National

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Heavy rains, flooding in western Afghanistan kill 7 people

An Afghan official says at least seven people have been killed as heavy rains and flooding swept through the country's western Herat province.

Heavy snowfall across Afghanistan this winter had cut off many areas, raising fears of severe floods in the spring. So far this year, 63 people have died as heavy rains and flooding swept away their homes.

Said Hamid Mubarez, the federal disaster and humanitarian director in Herat, says the flash floods on Thursday evening swept away eight people riding in two cars in the district of Karukh. Seven died while one survivor was injured.

In March, seven people, including five children, died elsewhere in Herat as a result of flooding. Hundreds of homes have been damaged and hundreds of cattle killed.

Source: Fox News World

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Chief: Boy thrown from Mall of America balcony being treated

A 5-year-old boy who was thrown from a third-floor balcony at the Mall of America near Minneapolis remains hospitalized with serious injuries, authorities said Saturday.

Bloomington police Chief Jeffrey Potts said during a news conference that the boy fell nearly 40 feet after a man who apparently didn't know the boy or his family threw him off the balcony Friday. Authorities haven't released the boy's name and say his family has requested privacy.

Potts said he couldn't give an update on the boy's status, except to say that he's being cared for at the hospital and that his parents are with him. Hospital officials haven't responded to requests for a status update.

Emmanuel Deshawn Aranda, 24, of Minneapolis, was arrested at the mall's transit station after the attack and is jailed on a suspicion of attempted homicide charge. Potts credited bystanders and mall security for his quick capture.

"This is a horrific situation," Potts said.

Potts said investigators don't believe Aranda knew the boy's family and do not have a motive.

A witness, Brian Johnson, told WCCO-TV on Friday that he heard a woman scream that her child had been thrown from the balcony. He said she was screaming, "Everybody pray, everybody pray. Oh my God, my baby, someone threw him over the edge."

Court records show that Aranda has a history of convictions for misdemeanor offense. He was charged in two previous incidents at the mall in 2015. Potts said some of those cases were handled through mental health court, but he didn't elaborate. At one point, Aranda had a trespass notice banning him from the mall, but it was no longer in effect, Potts said.

Jail records don't list an attorney for Aranda. Potts said he expects to submit the case to Hennepin County prosecutors for charges by noon on Monday.

The 4.2-million-square-foot Mall of America is in Bloomington, about 10 miles south of Minneapolis. It opened in 1992, has more than 520 stores and is visited by 40 million visitors annually, according to its website.

Source: Fox News National

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US nuclear-capable bombers fly training mission near Russia

U.S. Air Force nuclear-capable bombers flew a training mission near Scandinavia, sending a clear message to Moscow.

Five B-52 bombers flew over the Norwegian Sea Thursday, according to a statement from U.S. Air Force Europe, in a training flight reminiscent of those from the Cold War.

“The flights also allowed aircrews to conduct theater familiarization and to demonstrate U.S. commitment to allies and partners through the global employment of our military forces. U.S. Strategic Command regularly tests and evaluates the readiness of strategic assets to ensure we are able to honor our security commitments,” the statement said.

AIR FORCE SQUADRONS SHOWCASE 'OVERWHELMING COMBAT AIRPOWER' DURING ELEPHANT WALK

Flights of this nature using long-range bombers have steadily increased over the past five years since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

The American bombers joined Norwegian F-16 fighter jets in the training flight Thursday, according to the Air Force.

The large flight was coordinated in support of U.S. Strategic Command’s Bomber Task Force in Europe 

The large flight was coordinated in support of U.S. Strategic Command’s Bomber Task Force in Europe  (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Tessa B. Corrick)

STRANGERS WHO ATTENDED AIR FORCE VETERAN'S FUNERAL 'CAME TOGETHER AS AMERICANS', SAYS ORGANIZER

Earlier this month, a task force of six B-52 bombers deployed to the England recently from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana

Late last year, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier—USS Harry Truman-- launched aircraft north of the Arctic Circle for the first time in 30 years.

During the Cold War, the U.S. Navy regularly sent aircraft carrier strike groups to the Norwegian Sea to simulate attacks on Russia’s Kola Peninsula, where a large concentration of Russian military bases are located.  U.S. and NATO air force fighter jets regularly joined the training missions as well.

“Training with NATO allies like Norway enhances the capabilities and readiness of the alliance,” the Air Force said.

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Recently, Russian fighter jets have intercepted American bombers flying over the Baltic Sea, but all interactions have been safe and professional, according to the Pentagon.

Source: Fox News World

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Slovak court considers banning parliamentary far right party

Slovakia's Supreme Court is deciding whether to ban a parliamentary party for the first time in the country's history.

The court listened Tuesday to a request that emanated from the country's prosecutor general to remove the far-right People's Party Our Slovakia party because he considers it a threat to democracy. It is set to issue a verdict on April 29.

The party has 14 lawmakers in the 150-seat parliament and is among the top four strongest parties.

Its members openly admire the Nazi puppet state that the country was during World War II, use Nazi salutes, consider NATO a terror group and want the country out of the European Union.

Source: Fox News World

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Netanyahu: Israel is the state of 'Jewish people alone'

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is the homeland "only of the Jewish people," in a new jab at the country's Arab minority ahead of April's election.

Netanyahu on Sunday addressed "slightly confused people" after an Israeli celebrity defended the rights of Israel's Arab population. Arabs comprise about 20 percent of Israel's 9 million residents. They have full citizenship rights but have faced decades of discrimination.

On Saturday, actress Rotem Sela denounced Netanyahu's frequent talking point that his political rival will form a government with Arab political parties.

"When the hell will someone in this government tell the public that Israel is a country of all its citizens," Sela wrote on Instagram.

Netanyahu responded: Israel "is the national state, not of all its citizens, but only of the Jewish people."

Source: Fox News World

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Members of The Cranberries, bassist Mike Hogan, drummer Fergal Lawler and guitarist Noel Hogan speak to Reuters during an interview in London
Members of The Cranberries, bassist Mike Hogan, drummer Fergal Lawler and guitarist Noel Hogan speak to Reuters during an interview in London, Britain, April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Gerhard Mey

April 26, 2019

By Hanna Rantala

LONDON (Reuters) – Irish rockers The Cranberries are saying goodbye with their final album released on Friday, a poignant tribute to lead singer Dolores O’Riordan who died last year.

“In the End” is the eighth studio album from the band that rose to fame in the early 1990s with hits likes “Zombie” and “Linger”, and includes the final recordings by O’Riordan, who drowned in a London hotel bath in January 2018 due to alcohol intoxication.

Work on the album began during a 2017 tour and by that winter, O’Riordan and guitarist Neil Hogan had penned and demoed 11 tracks.

With O’Riordan’s vocals recorded, Hogan, bassist Mike Hogan and drummer Fergal Lawler completed the album in tribute to her.

“When we realized how strong the songs were, that was the deciding factor really… There was no point… trying to ruin the legacy of the band,” Noel Hogan said in an interview.

“It was obvious that Dolores wanted this album done because when you hear the album, you hear the songs and how strong they are, and she was very, very excited to get in and record this.”

The Cranberries formed in Limerick in 1989 with another singer. O’Riordan replaced him a year later and the group went on to become Ireland’s best-selling rock band after U2, selling more than 40 million records.

O’Riordan, known for her strong distinctive voice singing about relationships or political violence, was 46 when she died.

“She was actually in quite a good place mentally. She was feeling quite content and strong and looking forward to a new phase of her life,” Lawler said.

“A lot of the lyrics in this album are about things ending… people might read into it differently but it was a phase of her personal life that she was talking about.”

The group previously announced their intention to split after the release of “In The End”.

“We are absolutely gutted we can’t play (the songs) live because that’s something that’s been a massive part of this band from day one,” Noel Hogan said.

“A few people have said to us about maybe even doing a one off where you have different vocalists… as kind of guests of ours. A year ago that’s definitely something we weren’t going to entertain but I don’t know, I think it’s something we need to go away and take time off for the summer and have a think about.”

Critics have generally given positive reviews of the album; NME described it as “(seeing) the band’s career go full-circle” while the Irish Times called it “an unexpected late career high and a remarkable swan song for O’Riordan”.

Their early songs still play on the radio. This week, “Dreams” was performed at the funeral of journalist Lyra McKee, who was shot dead in Londonderry last week as she watched Irish nationalist youths attack police following a raid.

“We wrote them as kids, as a hobby and 30 years later they are on radio and on TV, like all the time… That’s far more than any of us ever thought we would have,” Noel Hogan said.

“That would make Dolores really happy because she was very precious about those songs. Her babies, she called them and to have that hopefully long after we’re gone… that’s all any band can wish for.”

(Reporting by Hanna Rantala; additoinal reporting by Marie-Louise Gumuchian; Writing by Marie-Louise Gumuchian; Editing by Susan Fenton)

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2020 Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren participates in the She the People Presidential Forum in Houston
2020 Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren participates in the She the People Presidential Forum in Houston, Texas, U.S. April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Loren Elliott

April 26, 2019

By Joshua Schneyer and M.B. Pell

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Senator Elizabeth Warren will introduce a bill Friday that offers new protections for U.S. military families facing unsafe housing, following a series of Reuters reports revealing squalid conditions in privately managed base homes.

The Reuters reports and later Congressional hearings detailed widespread hazards including lead paint exposure, vermin infestations, collapsing ceilings, mold and maintenance lapses in privatized base housing communities that serve some 700,000 U.S. military family members.

(View Warren’s military housing bill here. https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dy5aht)

(Read Reuters’ Ambushed at Home series on military housing here. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/usa-military)

The Massachusetts Democrat’s bill would mandate both regular and unannounced spot inspections of base homes by certified, independent inspectors, holding landlords accountable for quickly fixing hazards. The military’s privatization program for years allowed real estate firms to operate base housing with scant oversight, Reuters found, leaving some tenants in unsafe homes with little recourse against landlords.

The bill would also require the Department of Defense and its private housing operators to publish reports annually detailing housing conditions, tenant complaints, maintenance response times and the financial incentives companies receive at each base. The provisions aim to enhance transparency of housing deals whose finances and operations the military had allowed to remain largely confidential under a privatization program since the late 1990s.

The measure would also require private landlords to cover moving costs for at-risk families, and healthcare costs for people with medical conditions resulting from unsafe base housing, ensuring they receive continuing coverage even after they leave the homes or the military.

“This bill will eliminate the kind of corner-cutting and neglect the Defense Department should never have let these private housing partners get away with in the first place,” Warren said in a statement Friday.

The proposed legislation comes after February Senate hearings where Warren, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who is seeking the Democratic nomination for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, slammed private real estate firms for endangering service families, and sought answers about why military branches weren’t providing more oversight.

Her legislation would direct the Defense Department to allow local housing code enforcers onto federal bases, following concerns they were sometimes denied access. Warren’s office said a companion bill in the House of Representatives would be introduced by Rep. Deb Haaland, Democrat of New Mexico.

In response to the housing crisis, military branches are developing a tenant bill of rights and hiring hundreds of new housing staff. The branches recently dispatched commanders to survey base housing worldwide for safety hazards, resulting in thousands of work orders and hundreds of tenants being moved. The Defense Department has pledged to renegotiate its 50-year contracts with private real estate firms.

Congress has been quick to take its own measures. Earlier legislation proposed by senators Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris of California, along with Mark Warner and Tim Kaine of Virginia, would compel base commanders to withhold rent payments and incentive fees from the private ventures if they allow home hazards to persist.

(Editing by Ronnie Greene)

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FILE PHOTO: Offices of Deloitte are seen in London
FILE PHOTO: Offices of Deloitte are seen in London, Britain, September 25, 2017. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By Noor Zainab Hussain and Tanishaa Nadkar

(Reuters) – Deloitte quit as Ferrexpo’s auditor on Friday, knocking its shares by more than 20 percent, days after saying it was unable to conclude whether the iron ore miner’s CEO controlled a charity being investigated over its use of company donations.

Blooming Land, which coordinates Ferrexpo’s Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) program, came under scrutiny after auditors found holes in the charity’s statements.

Ferrexpo on Tuesday said findings of an ongoing independent investigation launched in February indicated some Blooming Land funds could have been “misappropriated”. It did not provide any details or publish its findings.

Shares in Ferrexpo, the third largest exporter of pellets to the global steel industry, were 23.4 percent lower at 206.1 pence at 1022 GMT following news of Deloitte’s resignation.

“Ferrexpo’s shares are deeply discounted vs peers … following the resignation of Deloitte, we expect downside risks to dominate Ferrexpo’s shares near term.” JP Morgan analyst Dominic O’Kane said in a note on Friday.

Swiss-headquartered Ferrexpo did not provide a reason for the resignation of Deloitte, which declined to comment, while Blooming Land did not respond to a request for comment.

Funding for Blooming Land’s CSR activities is provided by one of Ferrexpo’s units in Ukraine and Khimreaktiv LLC, an entity ultimately controlled by Ferrexpo’s CEO and majority owner Kostyantin Zhevago, Ferrexpo said on Tuesday.

Ferrexpo’s board has found that Zhevago did not have significant influence or control over the charity, but Deloitte said it was unable reach a conclusion on this.

Reuters was not immediately able to contact Zhevago.

In a qualified opinion, a statement addressing an incomplete audit, Deloitte said it had been unable to conclude whether $33.5 million of CSR donations to Blooming Land between 2017 and 2018 was used for “legitimate business payments for charitable purposes”.

Deloitte said on Tuesday that total CSR payments made to Blooming Land by Ferrexpo since 2013 total about $110 million.

Ferrexpo, whose major mines are in Ukraine, has said that the investigation was ongoing and new evidence pointed to potential discrepancies.

Zhevago, 45, who ranked 1,511 on Forbes magazine’s list of billionaires for 2019 with a net worth of $1.4 billion, owns the FC Vorskla soccer club and has been a member of Ukraine’s parliament since 1998.

(Reporting by Noor Zainab Hussain and Tanishaa Nadkar in Bengaluru and additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk in Kiev; editing by Gopakumar Warrier, Bernard Orr)

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Children walk past a damaged building in the aftermath of the Cyclone Kenneth in Pemba
Children walk past a damaged building in the aftermath of the Cyclone Kenneth in Pemba, Mozambique April 26, 2019 in this still image obtained from social media. SolidarMed via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. MANDATORY CREDIT. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES

April 26, 2019

By Emma Rumney and Stephen Eisenhammer

JOHANNESBURG/LUANDA (Reuters) – Cyclone Kenneth killed at least one person and left a trail of destruction in northern Mozambique, destroying houses, ripping up trees and knocking out power, authorities said on Friday.

The cyclone brought storm surges and wind gusts of up to 280 km per hour (174 mph) when it made landfall on Thursday evening, after killing three people in the island nation of Comoros.

It was the most powerful storm on record to hit Mozambique’s northern coast and came just six weeks after Cyclone Idai battered the impoverished nation, causing devastating floods and killing more than 1,000 people across a swathe of southern Africa.

The World Food Programme warned that Kenneth could dump as much as 600 millimeters of rain on the region over the next 10 days – twice that brought by Cyclone Idai.

One woman in the port town of Pemba died after being hit by a falling tree, the Emergency Operations Committee for Cabo Delgado (COE) said in a statement, while another person was injured.

In rural areas outside Pemba, many homes are made of mud. In the main town on the island of Ibo, 90 percent of the houses were destroyed, officials said. Around 15,000 people were out in the open or in “overcrowded” shelters and there was a need for tents, food and water, they said.

There were also reports of a large number of homes and some infrastructure destroyed in Macomia district, a mainland district adjacent to Ibo.

A local group, the Friends of Pemba Association, had earlier reported that they could not reach people in Muidumbe, a district further inland.

Mark Lowcock, United Nations under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, warned the storm could require another major humanitarian operation in Mozambique.

“Cyclone Kenneth marks the first time two cyclones have made landfall in Mozambique during the same season, further stressing the government’s limited resources,” he said in a statement.

FLOOD WARNINGS

Shaquila Alberto, owner of the beach-front Messano Flower Lodge in Macomia, said there were many fallen trees there, and in rural areas people’s homes had been damaged. Some areas of nearby Pemba had no power.

“Even my workers, they said the roof and all the things fell down,” she said by phone.

Further south, in Pemba, Elton Ernesto, a receptionist at Raphael’s Hotel, said there were fallen trees but not too much damage. The hotel had power and water, he said, while phones rang in the background. “The rain has stopped,” he added.

However Michael Charles, an official for the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), said heavy rains over the next few days were likely to bring a “second wave of destruction” in the form of flooding.

“The houses are not all solid, and the topography is very sandy,” Charles said.

In the days after Cyclone Idai, heavy inland rains prompted rivers to burst their banks, submerging entire villages, cutting areas off from aid and ruining crops. There were concerns the same could happen again in northern Mozambique.

Before Kenneth hit, the government and aid workers moved around 30,000 people to safer buildings such as schools, however authorities said that around 680,000 people were in the path of the storm.

(Reporting by Emma Rumney and Stephen Eisenhammer; Writing by Emma Rumney; Editing by Janet Lawrence and Alexandra Zavis)

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A worker holds a nozzle to pump petrol into a vehicle at a fuel station in Mumbai
FILE PHOTO: A worker holds a nozzle to pump petrol into a vehicle at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas

April 26, 2019

By Manoj Kumar and Nidhi Verma

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Surging global oil prices will pose a first big challenge to India’s new government, whoever wins an election now under way, especially as domestic prices have been allowed to lag, meaning consumers are in for a painful surge as they catch up.

For oil-import dependent India, higher global prices could lead to a weaker rupee, higher inflation, the ruling out of interest rate cuts and could further weigh on twin current account and budget deficits, economists warned.

But compounding the future pain, state-run fuel suppliers and retailers have held off passing on to consumers the higher prices during a staggered general election, which began on April 11 and ends on May 23, according to sources familiar with the situation.

That delay is expected to be unwound once the election is over. And there could be additional price increases to make up for losses or profits missed during the period of delayed increases, the sources said.

In some major Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, pump prices are adjusted periodically so they move largely in tandem with international crude prices.

That was what was supposed to happen in India but the election means there have been many days when pump prices have been unchanged.

In New Delhi, for example, while crude oil prices have gone up by nearly $9 a barrel, or about 12 percent, in the past six weeks, gasoline prices have only risen by 0.47 rupees a liter, or 0.6 percent.

State-controlled fuel suppliers and retailers declined to say why they had delayed price increases, or discuss whether there has been any pressure from the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A government spokesman declined to comment.

The opposition Congress party said Modi’s government was violating its own policy of daily price revision by advising the state oil companies to hold prices steady.

“The government should cut fuel taxes otherwise consumers will have to pay much higher oil prices once the elections are over,” said Akhilesh Pratap Singh, a senior leader of the Congress party.

(GRAPHIC: India Polls: Fuel price hike lags crude surge – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XLlxik)

Nitin Goyal, treasurer at the All India Petroleum Dealers Association, representing fuel stations in 25 states, said prices were similarly held down for 19 days in the southern state of Karnataka last year, when it held state assembly elections.

Only for them to surge after the vote.

“Consumers should be ready for a rude shock of a massive jump in retail prices, similar to the level we have seen in the Karnataka state election,” Goyal said.

‘CREDIT NEGATIVE’

Sri Paravaikkarasu, director for Asia oil at Singapore-based consultancy FGE, said retail prices of gasoline and gasoil prices would have been up to 6 percent, or about 4 rupee, higher if they had been allowed to rise in line with global prices.

“Indian pump prices have failed to keep up with the recent uptrend in crude prices,” Paravaikkarasu said.

“With the country’s general elections underway, the incumbent government has been keeping pump prices relatively unchanged.”

India had switched to a daily price revision in June 2017 from a revision every two weeks, as the government allowed retailers to set prices.

But the government faced protests last October when retailers raised prices by up to 10 rupees a liter after the crude oil price went above $80 a barrel, forcing it to cut fuel taxes.

Global prices rose to their highest level in 2019 on Thursday, days after the United States announced all Iran sanction waivers would end by May, pressuring importers including India to stop buying Tehran’s oil. [O/R]

Higher oil prices will mean Asia’s third largest economy is likely to see growth of less than 7 percent rate this fiscal year, economists said. Growth slowed to 6.6 percent in the October-December quarter, the slowest in five quarters.

Rating agency CARE has warned that a 10 percent rise in global oil prices could increase demand for dollars, putting pressure on the rupee and widening the current account deficit.

India’s oil import bill rose by nearly one-third in the fiscal year ending March 31 to $140.5 billion, against $108 billion the previous year.

“The increase in international oil prices is a credit negative for the Indian economy,” ICRA, the Indian arm of the Fitch rating agency, said in a note.

“Every $10/ bbl increase in crude oil prices increases the fiscal deficit by about 0.1 percent of GDP.”

Any big price rise would also build a case for the central bank to keep rates steady, or even raise them.

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee, which cut the benchmark policy repo rate by 25 basis points this month, warned that rising oil and food prices could push up inflation.

Policymakers are worried that a sustained increase in the oil price in the range of $70-75/barrel or higher can move the rupee down by 3-4 percent on an annual basis.

The rupee has depreciated by 1.24 percent against the dollar since a year high in mid-March.

($1 = 70.1800 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Manoj Kumar and Nidhi Verma; Editing by Martin Howell and Rob Birsel)

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