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Commodity prices, investment poised to extend upswing

The sun rises behind a corn tassel in a field in Minooka
FILE PHOTO: The sun rises behind a corn tassel in a field in Minooka, Illinois, September 24, 2014. REUTERS/Jim Young

March 29, 2019

By Eric Onstad

LONDON (Reuters) – A rebound in commodities prices and investment is poised to extend in coming months as the sector gets its traditional boost during the final stages of the global economic cycle along with other drivers.

While some investors worry about a possible recession, commodities are due to benefit from an expected U.S.-China trade deal, tightening oil supply and potential short-covering in beaten-down U.S. grain futures.

The 19-commodity Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index, which has rebounded 10 percent from an 18-month low touched at the end of last year, should also get further support from easier monetary policy that has lifted all financial markets, analysts and traders said.

Graphic: Commodity Prices Clawing Higher From December Lows – https://tmsnrt.rs/2HN3TXg

Commodities along with other financial markets have been buoyed after the U.S. Federal Reserve this month confirmed its three-year drive to tighten monetary policy was at an end.

The dovish change from the Fed and growing stimulus in top commodities consumer China would extend the current positive economic cycle and support commodity prices, JPMorgan said in a note.

“Late cycles are typically marked by outperformance of commodities,” JPMorgan analyst Dominic O’Kane said.

The rise in commodities so far has been partly fueled by hopes for an agreement to end a trade war between Washington and Beijing, helping to spur $2.1 billion of flows so far this year into commodity index funds and exchange-traded funds, data compiled by Citi showed.

Commodity assets under management have climbed to $407 billion, breaching $400 billion for the first time since October, Citi said, based on data through March 5.

Although the energy complex has recovered strongly this year, positioning in crude oil is not overstretched, analysts said.

According to the latest exchange data, hedge funds have bought another 65 million barrels of petroleum futures and options, the biggest one-week increase since the end of August 2018 and a bullish signal.

That was because investors expect prices to be bolstered by supply-side disruptions while OPEC and its allies comply with their plans to cut 1.2 million barrels per day of supply this year.

The funds’ net long position in Brent crude has more than doubled from a low hit in early December, but is still less than half of the record high touched in April last year.

“There’s plenty of room on the upside,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

Graphic: Hedge Funds’ Crude Oil Positions Rebound – https://tmsnrt.rs/2UVGINJ

As part of a proposed trade deal, Beijing has offered to make big-ticket purchases from the United States to help reduce a record trade gap. U.S. President Donald Trump’s team has said those purchases would be worth more than a trillion dollars over about six years.

Agricultural exports to China could grow to $30 billion or more a year, Citi analyst Aakash Doshi said in a note. This compares to nearly $20 billion in 2017.

“The CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) complex … appears poised for a rebound in 2Q/3Q on the back of a U.S.-Sino trade deal that could meaningfully boost Chinese purchases of soybeans, corn, ethanol, cotton, pork and other agricultural products,” he said.

Flooding in the U.S. Midwest makes agricultural futures vulnerable to short-covering after bearish bets hit record levels in recent weeks and this could accelerate if Chinese purchases surge, analysts said.

Graphic: U.S. Agricultural Exports to China – https://tmsnrt.rs/2UXc32t

Industrial metals are moving into their strongest seasonal period when construction activity rises in top consumer China.

“Both the fundamentals and technicals are supportive, so if we can get some concrete news that a trade deal has been successful, these things could really fly,” said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale.

As seasonal demand is due to climb, most metals should have market deficits this year and in 2020, according to analyst consensus forecasts compiled by Reuters polls.

Graphic: Most Industrial Metals in Deficit – https://tmsnrt.rs/2HMdwpp

(Reporting by Eric Onstad; Editing by Dale Hudson)

Source: OANN

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Ocasio-Cortez coal-mine visit requires an apology to Crenshaw first, Ky. lawmaker says

A Republican congressman from Kentucky says that if U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., wants to visit an underground coal mine in his state, she'll first have to apologize to a GOP congressman from Texas.

U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., placed the condition on Ocasio-Cortez's planned visit to the Bluegrass State in a letter to the freshman congresswoman on Friday.

Barr’s demand stems from comments that Ocasio-Cortez recently directed at U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, over his response to domestic terrorism.

OCASIO-CORTEZ 'HAPPY' TO VISIT KENTUCKY COAL MINE, AFTER GOP REP'S OFFER TO 'GO UNDERGROUND'

"I urge you to apologize to our colleague prior to coming to visit Kentucky," Barr said in the letter, describing Ocasio-Cortez's' remarks as an example of a "lack of civility that is becoming far too common in the U.S. House of Representatives."

Ocasio-Cortez told Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL, that he should focus on domestic terrorism after he slammed Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., for describing the 9/11 attacks as “some people did something.” In a March speech to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), Omar spoke of the rise in anti-Islamic activity in response to terrorist incidents.

CHRIS CHRISTIE: ILHAN OMAR IS 'OFF HER ROCKER,' AOC IS A 'JOKE,' SHOULD APOLOGIZE FOR 9/11 COMMENTS

"Far too long we have lived with the discomfort of being a second-class citizen and frankly, I'm tired of it, and every single Muslim in this country should be tired of it," she said. "CAIR was founded after 9/11 because they recognized that some people did something and that all of us were starting to lose access to our civil liberties."

Crenshaw decried her comments, tweeting: “First member of Congress to ever describe terrorists who killed thousands of Americans on 9/11 as 'some people who did something.' Unbelievable."

Ocasio-Cortez stepped in the middle of the feud to defend Omar and called out Crenshaw for not co-sponsoring a measure to aid 9/11 victims and their families.

"You refuse to cosponsor the 9/11 Victim’s Compensation Fund, yet have the audacity to drum resentment towards Ilhan w/completely out-of-context quotes," she tweeted.

“In 2018, right-wing extremists were behind almost all U.S. domestic terrorist killings," Ocasio-Cortez continued. "Why don’t you go do something about that?"

Corbin Trent, a spokesman for Ocasio-Cortez, told the Louisville Courier-Journal that Crenshaw targeted Omar because she is one of the first Muslim women to serve in Congress.

Following Ocasio-Cortez's comments, Barr and other conservatives pointed to Crenshaw’s war record, having served three tours in Afghanistan and losing his right eye. During a hearing earlier this month about the Green New Deal, he invited Ocasio-Cortez to meet coal miners. But first, he would like her to apologize to Crenshaw.

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Barr said his office has not received a response to his invitation.

"Luckily, Kentucky has open borders," Trent said. "If we decided to go to Kentucky to visit with coal miners, which we certainly hope to, and talk about the opportunities that can be brought to the rural South ... and to coal-mine country and Appalachia, that can be brought by transitioning to renewable energy and the Green New Deal, we'll be excited to do so."

Source: Fox News Politics

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Lindsey Graham will probe alleged FISA abuses at FBI, calls on Barr to appoint new special counsel

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham said Monday that he will probe alleged abuses of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) at the start of the Russia investigation, while calling on Attorney General Bill Barr to appoint a new special counsel to investigate the “other side of the story.”

Graham, R-S.C., made the comments during a press conference on Capitol Hill following the release of the findings in the Robert Mueller investigation, which did not uncover evidence of a Trump-Russia conspiracy in 2016. Graham and other Trump allies cited the findings to renew scrutiny of the probe's origins at the FBI. The chairman said he'll look into any alleged misconduct related to the Russia investigation on the part of the Justice Department, the FBI and the Democrats, but added that due to “the emotional nature of this” he believes a new appointment is necessary.

GRAHAM SENDS OMINOUS TWEET TO COMEY: SEE YOU SOON

“I’d like to find somebody, like a Mr. Mueller, that can look into what happened with the FISA warrants, the counterintelligence investigation. Am I right to be concerned? It seems pretty bad on its face—but there are some people that are never going to accept the Mueller report, but by any reasonable standard, Mueller thoroughly investigated the Trump campaign. You cannot say that about the other side of the story,” Graham told reporters Monday.

“I hope Mr. Barr will appoint somebody outside the current system to look into these allegations, somebody we all trust, and let them do what Mueller did,” he continued, adding that he has been calling for the appointment of a second special counsel since 2017 to investigate “whether or not a counterintelligence investigation was opened as a back door to spy on the Trump campaign.”

“A counterintelligence investigation is designed to protect the entity being targeted by a foreign power…I still am at a loss as to why nobody went to President Trump to tell him,” Graham said Monday.

Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz is currently investigating any alleged misconduct related to FISA warrants delivered from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC). The Justice Department and FBI obtained warrants in 2016 to surveil Trump adviser Carter Page. The status of the investigation, or a timeline of when the review will be complete, is unclear.

Meanwhile, Graham said the basis of his panel’s “deep dive” into alleged FISA abuses would be the unverified anti-Trump dossier and what role the document played, questioning whether it was “supplemental or outcome determinative.”

BULK OF MUELLER CASES AGAINST TRUMP ASSOCIATES BASED ON FALSE STATEMENTS

“Was it a ruse to get into the Trump campaign?” Graham asked Monday. “I don’t know, but I’m going to try to find out.”

He added: “I have been talking since 2017 about the other side of the story. Nobody much appears to care, but I hope you will find some interest now.”

Graham said he wants answers on how much money the Democrats paid research firm Fusion GPS to commission the dossier, or if the contents of the dossier have been verified.

Graham’s announcement comes after the attorney general released a summary of Mueller’s findings, revealing that the special counsel found no evidence of collusion between members, or anyone associated with, the Trump campaign and Russia during the 2016 presidential election.

Graham vowed to call Barr to testify on the Mueller report, but suggested he could also call on Justice Department official Bruce Ohr and former FBI Director James Comey to appear before his committee.

This comes after Graham responded to a tweet from Comey showing him in the woods with the text, “So many questions.” Graham shot back: “Could not agree more. See you soon.”

Source: Fox News Politics

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In Thailand’s restive deep south, election stirs rare enthusiasm

Democrat Party's candidate Anwar Salae campaigns at a market in Pattani province
Democrat Party's candidate for Member of Parliament Anwar Salae campaigns at a market in Pattani province, Thailand, March 16, 2019. Picture taken March 16, 2019. REUTERS/Panu Wongcha-um

March 22, 2019

By Panu Wongcha-um

YALA, Thailand (Reuters) – Pateemoh Poh-itaeda-oh, 39, has lost four family members to violence in Thailand’s deep south, where a Muslim separatist movement has fought against rule from Bangkok for 15 years.

Now, she is running for a parliamentary seat in a general election on Sunday, hoping to have a hand in making government policies for the restive region.

Sunday’s vote is broadly seen as a battle between allies of the military junta leader seeking to stay in power and supporters of ousted ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, a former telecommunication tycoon whose loyalists have won every general election since 2001.

But that divide has a different dynamic in the three southern border provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, which are 80 percent Muslim, while the rest of Thailand is overwhelmingly Buddhist.

A separatist insurgency has dragged on since 2004, killing more than 6,900 people. In January, two Buddhist monks were shot dead in a suspected insurgent attack.

In previous elections, the deep south was not much courted by politicians seeking national power. But the arrival of several new parties on the political scene, along with stalled peace talks, have stirred interest in the campaign in the south – and enthusiasm to participate among newly minted candidates.

Pateemoh, a Muslim who is a candidate for the pro-junta Action Coalition for Thailand party (ACT), said she got involved because she felt for the first time there was a chance for the concerns of the south to be heard and – possibly – bring an end to the conflict.

“For a long time many Thais have looked at problems in the deep south as a marginal border issue, but this election I have seen changes,” she told Reuters at her party headquarters in Yala province.

Ending the insurgency is deeply personal to her. Three of her brothers and one sister have been shot dead since 2004 in suspected attacks by insurgents, who often target teachers and local officials for working with central government.

“I really want to be a voice in forming policy and solving the conflict issue in the deep south, and people have to remember that women’s voices need to matter in this process,” she said.

SELF-DETERMINATION

The three provinces, and a small part of neighboring Songkhla, were historically part of a Malay Muslim sultanate annexed by Thailand in 1909. Separatist tensions have simmered ever since.

A peace process between the Thai government and insurgent groups has made little headway, with violence still occurring even though the military has been directly in charge of security in the region for 15 years.

In February, Mara Patani, an umbrella organization representing many insurgent groups, said it has suspended all dialogue with Bangkok until after the election.

For decades, the deep south’s small tally of seats – 11 out of 350 being contested in this election – were seen as a reliable bloc for the Democrat Party, the country’s oldest political party that is officially non-aligned in the campaign but could prove crucial in post-vote coalition-building.

But the fresh attention being paid to the region by new parties has stoked pent-up desire for a say among both the pro-government and pro-autonomy camps there, said Samart Thongfhua, a political analyst at Prince of Songkla University in Pattani.

“Generally, people in the deep south are enthusiastic from all sides because they will feel that they can gain justice through democracy,” he said.

RELIGIOUS TENSIONS

This is the first election that a Malay Muslim from the deep south, Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, 74, is a prime ministerial candidate.

Matha, a former house speaker and the leader of Prachachart Party, is a key ally to Thaksin who could help capture votes for the “democratic front” of anti-junta parties in the deep south. Pro-Thaksin parties have in the past performed badly in the region, where he was widely blamed for exacerbating the conflict with harsh tactics when he was in power from 2001 to 2006.

Prachachart has been campaigning greater people’s participation in the region’s governance and peace process.

Analysts predict that no single party will dominate the region, with the Democrats, ACT, Bhumjaithai Party, and two anti-junta parties, Prachachart and Future Forward, all seen as competitive.

All are campaigning for greater autonomy to a varying degree for the restive region, a sensitive issue for the Thai military.

Even talking about greater autonomy alarms the region’s Buddhist minority, and coincides with the emergence on the national stage of the Buddhist nationalist Pandin Dharma Party.

“There is a sentiment that Buddhism is under threat and this has been appealing to many Buddhists here,” Ruckchart Suwan, 54, of the Buddhist Network for Peace told Reuters.

Muslim politicians say more needs to be done to improve relationship between Buddhists and Muslims.

“It is good to hear real grievances from the Buddhists so we can address it properly,” said Worawit Baru, 67, a candidate for Prachachart Party in Pattani province.

“The security forces have brought Buddhists and Muslims together over meals many times and say this represent successful reconciliation,” Worawit said. “These window-dressing approaches must stop and we need the people to speak up.”

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um; Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat; Editing by Kay Johnson and Alex Richardson)

Source: OANN

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ECB picks board member Mersch for key bank supervisory role

FILE PHOTO: Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank delivers a speech during Lamfalussy Lectures Conference in Budapest
FILE PHOTO: Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank delivers a speech during Lamfalussy Lectures Conference in Budapest, Hungary, February 4, 2019. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo

April 9, 2019

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The European Central Bank has nominated board member Yves Mersch to serve as the new vice chair of its bank supervision arm, the bank said on Tuesday, ending a two month vacancy in the post.

Pending approval in European Union bodies, Mersch will succeed Sabine Lautenschlaeger, whose term expired in February, serving in a key role that connects the ECB’s executive board and bank supervision arm.

One of the European Union’s newest institutions, the Single Supervisory Mechanism, oversees 119 of the bloc’s largest lenders with over 21 trillion euros in assets.

In addition to the vice chair’s position, three other posts on the supervisory board remain vacant, but the ECB did not say who would fill those seats.

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Alison Williams)

Source: OANN

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AOC: Outrage Over Republicans Against Anti-Hate Resolution?

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., questioned why there is no outrage over the 23 Republicans who voted against a House resolution condemning bigotry.

Her comments came in a Thursday night tweet.

She wrote:

"Where's the outrage over the 23 GOP members who voted NO on a resolution condemning bigotry today? Oh, there's none? Did they get called out, raked over, ambushed in halls and relentlessly asked why not? No? Okay. Got it."

The House resolution came after comments from Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. in which she suggested politicians who back Israel have an allegiance to a foreign county, The Hill noted.

The resolution "encourages all public officials to confront the reality of anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, racism, and other forms of bigotry . . ."

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., fired back at Ocasio-Cortez's tweet.

Cheney tweeted:

"Here's the outrage: your party put a sham resolution on the floor designed to protect the anti-Semitic hate and bigotry of @IlhanMN."

Source: NewsMax Politics

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Pompeo: US Won’t “Stand Idly” If Russia Dispatches Troops in Venezuela

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren suggested that doctors and nurses don’t treat African American women the same way they do white women.

Warren appeared on Wednesday together with a number of other 2020 Democratic candidates at the She The People Forum in Houston, discussing issues concerning women of color.

WARREN’S $1.25T EDUCATION PLAN ‘SWEEPING’ GIVEAWAY TO THE WEALTHY AT EXPENSE OF THE POOR, WAPO EDITORIAL BOARD SAYS

The Massachusetts senator announced on stage a plan to decrease the childbirth mortality rate among black women while identifying a systematic problem with how they are treated.

“And there is a specific problem, as you rightly identified, for women of color who are three, four times more likely to die in childbirth,” Warren said.

“And here’s the thing, even after we do the adjustments for income, for education, this is true across the board. This is true for well-educated African American women, for wealthy African American women, and the best studies that I’m seeing put it down to just one thing, prejudice,” she added.

“That doctors and nurses don’t hear African American women’s medical issues the same way that they hear the same things from white women.”

“That doctors and nurses don’t hear African American women’s medical issues the same way that they hear the same things from white women.”

— Elizabeth Warren

CHARLIE KIRK: WARREN AND OTHER DEMS OFFER FREE MONEY – BUT DON’T TELL YOU PRICE WILL BE YOUR FREEDOM

Warren went on to get into details of her plan, noting that hospitals will be given bonuses if they manage to reduce the childbirth mortality rate among black women in an effort to give financial incentives for those doctors and nurses to provide better care.

“And if they don’t, then they’re going to have money taken away from them,” Warren added.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

“I want to see the hospitals see it as their responsibility to address this problem head-on and make it a first priority. The best way to do that is to use the money to make it happen because we gotta have change, and we gotta have change now.”

Source: Fox News Politics

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