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Modi promises ‘new India’ as he launches election campaign

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures as he addresses an election campaign rally in Meerut
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures as he addresses an election campaign rally in Meerut in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, India, March 28, 2019. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

March 28, 2019

By Subrat Patnaik

MEERUT, India (Reuters) – Prime Minister Narendra Modi officially launched his party’s general election campaign on Thursday with a rally in India’s most populous state, promising development with national security in seeking votes for another term.

A coalition led by Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is widely expected to retain power in a staggered election beginning on April 11, especially given recent tension with old rival Pakistan.

“This country has seen governments that only made slogans, but for the first time, they are seeing a decisive government that knows how to demonstrate its resolve,” Modi told the rally in the city of Meerut in Uttar Pradesh state, which has the most members of parliament of all states.

“Our vision is of a new India that will be in tune with its glorious past,” he said to roars of approval from the crowd who waved BJP flags and chanted for another term for Modi.

The rally was held in a field flanking a main road, surrounded by farm land. Vendors sold BJP mugs, T-shirts and clocks.

The general election, the world’s biggest democratic exercise with about 900 million eligible voters, will be held in phases ending on May 19. Votes will be counted on May 23.

Tension with neighboring Pakistan soared last month after a suicide bomb attack in the Indian part of the disputed Kashmir region killed 40 Indian paramilitary police. The bombing was claimed by a Pakistan-based militant group.

India retaliated with an air raid against a suspected militant camp in northern Pakistan.

In December, the main opposition Congress party defeated the BJP in three major rural states as a lack of jobs and weak farm prices dented Modi’s popularity.

But pollsters say Modi’s chances have improved significantly thanks to his tough stance on Pakistan

At the rally, Modi repeatedly spoke about the Indian bombing of the suspected militant camp. He also referred to a test on Wednesday in which India shot down one of its own satellites in space, which he said made India a space power. [nL3N21E1OC]

Modi also promised economic growth and a prosperous society for all.

Modi’s main challenger is the opposition Congress party, which was for decades India’s dominant political party.

One Modi supporter derided a recent Congress offer to hand out 6,000 rupees ($87) a month to the poorest families if it was voted back into power. [nL3N21C4VS]

“I know how the economy works,” said chartered accountant Anupam Sharma. “GDP would be decimated.”

Modi was due to address another rally in Jammu, the winter capital of Jammu and Kashmir state, later on Thursday.

(Reporting by Subrat Patnaik in MEERUT; Writing by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Robert Birsel)

Source: OANN

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Japan February machinery orders seen rising for first time in four months: Reuters poll

File photo of a worker standing on a crane which is parked at a construction site at Keihin industrial zone in Kawasaki
A worker stands on a crane which is parked at a construction site at Keihin industrial zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, in this June 13, 2012 file photo. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/Files

April 5, 2019

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s core machinery orders likely rose for the first time in four months in February, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, but weak external demand and the U.S.-China trade war continue to cloud the outlook.

Core machinery orders, a volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the following six to nine months, likely grew 2.5 percent in February from a month earlier, the poll of 17 economists showed.

In January, orders dropped 5.4 percent from the previous month.

To economists, the anticipated gain in February is not strong enough to change a trend of lackluster core machinery orders, which exclude those for ships and electric power utilities.

“Uncertainty over the economic outlook has risen globally and firms are cautious about investment, especially high-tech companies,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

Compared with one year earlier, core orders in February are expected to have fallen 5.2 percent in February, according to the poll.

The trade friction between the United States and China is a major risk for Japan, as it ships electronics parts and heavy machinery to China as well as makes finished products for the United States and other markets.

The Cabinet Office will announce the machinery orders data at 8:50 a.m. Wednesday, April 10, Tokyo time.

The Reuters poll also showed an expectation that Japan’s current account likely had a surplus of 2.68 trillion yen ($24.00 billion) in February after 600.4 billion yen in January.

A weak yen likely inflated income from investments overseas, which contributed to a wider payments surplus, analysts said.

The finance ministry will release the February current account balance at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on April 8.

The poll also showed the Bank of Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the prices companies charge each other for goods and services, increased 1.1 percent in March from a year earlier, after a 0.8 percent gain in February.

Price gains in oil-related items and chemical products lifted the index, analysts said.

($1 = 111.66 yen)

(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

Source: OANN

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Saudi Arabia denies crown prince seeks to buy Manchester United

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a graduation ceremony for the 95th batch of cadets from the King Faisal Air Academy in Riyadh
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a graduation ceremony for the 95th batch of cadets from the King Faisal Air Academy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia December 23, 2018. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS

February 18, 2019

DUBAI (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s crown prince is not seeking to buy Premier League football club Manchester United, the kingdom’s media minister said on Monday, denying reports and adding that there had only been a meeting with the Saudi wealth fund regarding sponsorship.

Reports that Mohammed Bin Salman intends to buy the club are “completely false”, the minister, Turki al-Shabanah, wrote on social network Twitter.

He was reacting to reports that the crown prince had sought to tempt the Glazer family to cede control of the club.

“Manchester United held a meeting with PIF Saudi to discuss (a) sponsorship opportunity,” Shabanah said, adding that no deal materialized.

On Sunday, the British newspaper, the Sun, said the crown prince was in a £3.8-billion ($4.9-billion) takeover bid for one of football’s most popular clubs.

The paper said a bid was first submitted in October but the fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom’s embassy in Istanbul put the “skids” on a potential offer.

(Reporting by Hadeel Al Sayegh; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

Source: OANN

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Euro zone February factory activity declined, overall growth scant: PMI

An employee works on the automobile assembly line of Bluecar electric city cars at Renault car maker factory in Dieppe, western France
FILE PHOTO: An employee works on the automobile assembly line of Bluecar electric city cars at Renault car maker factory in Dieppe, western France, September 1, 2015. REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer/File Photo

February 21, 2019

Euro zone factory output unexpectedly slammed into reverse last month as activity in Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse Germany declined again amid trade tensions and struggles in the auto sector, surveys showed.

While that downturn was offset by a much faster than expected acceleration in services activity – which meant overall private sector growth picked up modestly – it will likely worry policymakers as factories also drive the bloc’s dominant service industry.

IHS Markit’s Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is seen as a good guide to economic health, rose to 51.4 this month from a final January reading of 51.0, above a Reuters poll median expectation for 51.1 but still below where it has been for much of the past four years.

“The euro zone economy remained close to stagnation in February. The general picture remained one of a more subdued business environment than seen throughout much of last year,” Chris Williamson, IHS Markit’s chief business economist said.

Williamson said the results pointed to first-quarter euro zone growth of just 0.1 percent, below the latest Reuters poll estimate for 0.4 percent. They come soon after the European Central Bank ended its more than 2.6 trillion euro asset purchase stimulus programme.

The flash manufacturing PMI tumbled to 49.2 this month, its lowest since mid-2013 and substantially below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction.

A Reuters poll had predicted a modest dip to 50.3 from January’s final reading of 50.5. The lowest forecast in the poll of 38 economists was 49.6.

An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI, dropped to 49.2 from 50.5, its lowest reading since May 2013. In a further sign of how manufacturers are struggling, the new orders index fell to a near six-year low of 46.2 from 47.8.

Adding to that gloomy picture, factories ran down old orders faster while also building up a stock of completed products.

Germany’s vast manufacturing sector contracted for a second month, only weeks before Britain, Europe’s second-largest economy, is due to leave the European Union and as uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade war continued and new pollution standards are still affecting car makers.

“The weakness is being led by manufacturing. With factory order books deteriorating at an increased rate, the rate of contraction in the goods-producing sector will likely worsen in coming months,” Williamson said.

In contrast, demand for services across the currency union picked up and firms were able to build up a backlog of work, so a PMI for the services industry jumped to 52.3 from 51.2, above a Reuters poll consensus for 51.4.

That helped optimism rise, with the business expectations index bouncing to a four-month high of 61.6 from 60.5 and firms taking on new workers at a faster rate.

Yet with overall demand falling and backlogs diminishing firms had to curtail by how much they raised prices. The output prices index fell to an 18-month low of 52.5 from 53.4.

With January inflation across the bloc expected to be confirmed at 1.4 percent when official figures are released on Friday, well below the ECB’s 2 percent target ceiling, a decline in inflationary pressure will also concern ECB policymakers.

(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Editing by Hugh Lawson; jonathan.cable@thomsonreuters.com; +44 20 7542 4688; Reuters Messaging: jonathan.cable.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

Source: OANN

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Canadian man dies after zipline cable snaps in Thailand

A Canadian man died while vacationing in Thailand in an apparent zipline incident, authorities said.

The victim, who has not been officially named, was ziplining at the popular attraction Flight of the Gibbon in Chiang Mai, the BBC reported.

4 DEAD AFTER SHOOTING IN CANADA; 1 MALE SUSPECT IN CUSTODY

The cable “gave way” after the 25-year-old man was released at the start of the attraction Saturday, the BBC reported, citing local media. The man fell about 40 feet from the zipline and fell down a hill, sources told the media outlet.

The attraction reportedly closed as authorities investigate the incident. Authorities were probing whether the weight limit of the attraction was exceeded and if there was any negligence on the operators’ behalf.

MAN AND CHILD VISITING GATORLAND GET STUCK ON ZIPLINE ABOVE ALLIGATOR POOL

The victim was identified as Spencer Donaldson of Fruitvale, B.C., according to CTV News, although this has not been officially confirmed by authorities. He was reportedly on vacation with a group of people.

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Flight of the Gibbon is more than three miles long, making it one of the longest on the continent. It costs about $131 to ride the zipline.

Source: Fox News World

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Catalan government official under fire after tweet quoting Anne Frank

A Catalan government official who purportedly compared the removal of pro-secession symbols from public buildings in Spain to Holocaust diarist Anne Frank was met with sharp criticism by many who called it “shameful.”

Elsa Artadi, the spokesperson for the government in Catalonia, sparked widespread criticism earlier this week when she posted on Monday a photo of Frank alongside a page from her famous diary.

“‘We aren’t allowed to have our own opinion. People want us to keep our mouth shut, but this doesn’t stop you having your own opinion. Everyone should be allowed to say what they think.’ A very appropriate quote from Anne Frank for today, which marks the 69th anniversary of her death in Bergen-Belsen,” Artadi wrote in the tweet, which also included a yellow ribbon in solidarity with Catalan separatists on trial for rebellion.

Earlier this week, Spain’s electoral commission ordered the yellow ribbons and separatists “estelada” flags removed from official buildings, claiming they are partisan symbols that should not be used by regional authorities ahead of the general and European elections in April and May.

CATALAN SEPARATISTS LINE UP IN A ROW IN COURT AS LANDMARK, POLITICALLY-CHARGED TRIAL BEGINS IN MADRID

The tweet – which had a factual error as Frank died 74 years ago in February or March 1945 – was quickly panned, including from Israeli diplomats and former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

“Nothing, nothing can be compared with the Holocaust to promote a political cause. This comparison is shameful!” responded Assaf Moran, the deputy chief of mission at the Israeli embassy in Madrid.

Valls, who is running for the mayor in Barcelona in May’s elections, called Artadi’s tweet a “disgrace.”

“A disgrace and a lack of historical knowledge. Spain is a democracy. How can it be compared to the Holocaust? Enough of all this nonsense!”

Another Twitter user wrote: “What you have said can only be described as an aberration and an insult to the victims of Nazism. How dare you try to compare yourself with millions of exterminated people? Unheard.”

Catalan separatists declared independence from Spain unilaterally in Oct. 2017 but received no international recognition.

The 12 Catalan separatists are charged with sedition and other alleged crimes. Their trial is expected to last months.

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Artadi has not commented nor apologized for the tweet, however, did follow up with a second message about freedom and democracy, while commenting on the decision by the electoral commission.

“Without freedom of expression there is no democracy and that without democracy there is no freedom of expression. I don’t know which of the two things annoys me more.”

Source: Fox News World

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Sunday Show: Democrats Totally Losing Their Minds as 2020 Nears

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FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain's far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of the Spain’s far-right party VOX wave Spanish flags as they attend an electoral rally ahead of general elections in the Andalusian capital of Seville, Spain April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Marcelo del Pozo/File Photo

April 26, 2019

By John Stonestreet and Belén Carreño

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s Vox party, aligned to a broader far-right movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about last minute shifts in voting intentions since official polling for Sunday’s national election ended four days ago.

No single party is anywhere near securing a majority, and chances of a deadlocked parliament and a second election are high.

Leaders of the five parties vying for a role in government get final chances to pitch for power at rallies on Friday evening, before a campaign characterized by appeals to voters’ hearts rather than wallets ends at midnight.

By tradition, the final day before a Spanish election is politics-free.

Two main prizes are still up for grabs in the home straight. One concerns which of the two rival left and right multi-party blocs gets more votes.

The other is whether Vox could challenge the mainstream conservative PP for leadership of the latter bloc, which media outlets with access to unofficial soundings taken since Monday suggest could be starting to happen.

The right’s loose three-party alliance is led by the PP, the traditional conservative party that has alternated in office with outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

The PP stands at around 20 percent, with center-right Ciudadanos near 14 percent and Vox around 11 percent, according to a final poll of polls in daily El Pais published on Monday.

Since then, however, interest in Vox – which will become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982 – has snowballed.

It was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.

While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.

TRENDING

According to a Google trends graphic, Vox has generated more than three times more search inquiries than any other Spanish political party in the past week.

Reasons could include a groundswell of vocal activist support at Vox rallies in Madrid and Valencia, and its exclusion from two televised debates between the main party leaders, on the grounds of it having no deputies yet in parliament.

Conservative daily La Vanguardia called its enforced absence from Monday’s and Tuesday’s debates “a gift from heaven”, while left-wing Eldiario.es suggested the PP was haemorrhaging votes to Vox in rural areas.

Ignacio Jurado, politics lecturer at the University of York, agreed the main source of additional Vox votes would be disaffected PP supporters, and called the debate ban – whose impact he said was unclear – wrong.

“This is a party polling over 10 percent and there are people interested in what it says. So we lose more than we win in not having them (in the debates),” he said

For Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political scientist at Spanish National Research Council CSIC, Vox is enjoying the novelty effect that propelled then new, left-wing arrival Podemos to 20 percent of the vote in 2015.

“While it’s unclear how to interpret the (Google) data, what we do know is that it’s better to be popular and to be a newcomer, and that Vox will benefit in some form,” he said.

For now, the chances of Vox taking a major role in government remain slim, however.

The El Pais survey put the Socialists on around 30 percent, making them the frontrunners and likely to form a leftist bloc with Podemos, back down at around 14 percent.

The unofficial soundings suggest little change in the two parties’ combined vote, or the total vote of the rightist bloc.

That makes it unlikely that either bloc will win a majority on Sunday, triggering horse-trading with smaller parties favoring Catalan independence – the single most polarizing issues during campaigning – that could easily collapse into fresh elections.

(Election graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2ENugtw)

(Reporting by John Stonestreet and Belen Carreno, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: The logo of the OPEC is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria December 5, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

April 26, 2019

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he called the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and told the cartel to lower oil prices.

“Gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC, I said you’ve got to bring them down. You’ve got to bring them down,” Trump told reporters.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Writing by Makini Brice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: OANN

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Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy near Lyon
Sonia Bompastor, director of the Olympique Lyonnais womenÕs Youth Academy, leads a training at the OL Academy in Meyzieu near Lyon, France, April 16, 2019. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

April 26, 2019

By Julien Pretot

MEYZIEU, France (Reuters) – Olympique Lyonnais president Jean-Michel Aulas was wringing out his women’s team shirts in the locker room on a rainy London day eight years ago when he decided it was time to take gender equality more seriously.

It was halftime in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Arsenal at Meadow Park with 507 fans watching and Aulas realized that his players did not have a another kit for the second half.

“Next time, there will be a second set just like for the men, that’s how it’s going to work from now on,” he said.

Lyon have since won five Champions League titles to become the most successful women’s team in Europe and recently claimed a 13th consecutive domestic crown.

They visit Chelsea on Sunday in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with a fourth straight title in their sights.

At the heart of their achievements is a pervasive ethos that promotes gender equality throughout the club, starting in the youth academy.

In 2013, Aulas appointed former Lyon and France player Sonia Bompastor as head of the Women’s Academy — the female equivalent of one of France’s top youth set-ups that has produced players such as Karim Benzema, Alexandre Lacazette and Hatem Ben Arfa.

At the Youth Academy, girls and boys share the same facilities.

“Pitches, physiotherapy rooms are the same for all,” the 38-year-old Bompastor told Reuters.

As the girls train under the watch of former Lyon and France international Camille Abily, the screams of the boys practicing can be heard nearby.

The boys and girls also benefit from the same psychological support that includes hypnosis sessions and yoga.

“We have a ‘mental ability’ cell and the hypnotist acts on the girls’ subconscious, on their deeply held beliefs after observing them on and off the pitch,” Bompastor added.

SAME TREATMENT

One message the Academy staff are trying to convey is that girls are as good as boys.

“Women’s nature is such that we have low self-esteem. So self-esteem is a big topic for our girls,” said Bompastor.

This is not the case with the boys, she added.

“Some 14, 15-year-old boys still think they would beat our professional players, we tell them this would not be happening. We still need to work on those beliefs,” she said.

Female players also have to face questions that their male counterparts do not, Bompastor explained.

“In France there is a problem with the way women are considered, there are high aesthetic expectations. So we get heavy questions on femininity, intimate questions that men don’t get,” she said.

OL’s Academy has been held up as a shining example for others to follow, even in the U.S., where women’s soccer has a wider audience than in Europe.

“About one third of the (senior women’s) squad comes from the Academy, we have a good balance,” said Bompastor.

“I’m getting tons of requests from American universities and foreign clubs, who want to come and visit our facilities.”

‘ONE CLUB’

The salaries of the senior players is one area where there remains a large discrepancy between Lyon’s men’s and women’s teams.

While the three best-paid women players in the world are at Lyon with Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg earning 400,000 euros ($445,520) a year, this figure is dwarfed by the around 4 million euros earned annually by men’s player Memphis Depay.

There is, however, a level of interaction between the men’s and women’s players that is not present at many other clubs.

“When you talk about OL you talk about women and men, you talk about one club and you feel it when you are here or outside in the city,” Germany defender Carolin Simon told Reuters.

“We see it when we play in the big stadium. It’s not ‘normal’ for women’s football,” the 26-year-old, who joined the club last year, added.

Lyon’s female players also enjoy respect from their male counterparts, Simon said.

“It’s very cool, it’s a big honor to feel that it doesn’t matter if you are a professional man or woman. We talk with the men, there are handshakes, it’s a good atmosphere and it’s also why we are successful,” said Simon.

“The men respect us and it’s not just for the cameras.”

Her team mate, England’s Lucy Bronze, sees the men’s respect as key to improving women’s football.

“We might not be paid the same but they are just normal with us, they see us as footballers the same as they are,” Bronze told Reuters.

“Being at Lyon has really opened my eyes. To improve women’s football, it starts with having the respect of your male counterparts. It’s the biggest thing because they can influence so many people.”

(Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Toby Davis)

Source: OANN

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FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen
FILE PHOTO: Ethiopian migrants, stranded in war-torn Yemen, sit on the ground of a detention site pending repatriation to their home country, in Aden, Yemen April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Fawaz Salman/File Photo

April 26, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) – Yemeni authorities have rounded up about 3,000 irregular migrants, predominantly Ethiopians, in the south of the country, “creating an acute humanitarian situation,” the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

“IOM is deeply concerned about the conditions in which the migrants are being held and is engaging with the authorities to ensure access to the detained migrants,” the International Organization for Migration said.

The migrants are held in open-air football stadiums and in a military camp, it said in a statement.

The detentions began on Sunday in the city of Aden and the neighboring province of Lahj, which are under the control of the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels control Sanaa, the capital, and other major urban centers.

Both sides are under international diplomatic pressure to implement a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire deal agreed last year in Sweden and to prepare for a wider political dialogue that would end the four-year-old war.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Yemen every year, mostly from the Horn of Africa, driven by drought and unemployment at home and lured by the wages available in the Gulf.

(Writing by Maher Chmaytelli, Editing by William Maclean)

Source: OANN

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration
U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. Picture taken November 7. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

April 26, 2019

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/DOLLAR JUGGERNAUT

The dollar has zipped to near two-year highs, leaving many scratching their heads. To many, it’s down to signs the U.S. economy is chugging ahead while the rest of the world loses steam. After all, Wall Street is busily scaling new peaks day after day.

Never mind the cause, the effect is stark. The euro has tumbled to 22-month lows against the dollar and investors are preparing for more, buying options to shield against further downside. Emerging-market currencies are also in pain, with Turkish lira and Argentine peso both sharply weaker.

Now U.S. data need to keep surprising on the upside or even just meet expectations. The International Monetary Fund sees U.S. growth at 2.3 percent this year. For Germany, the forecast is 0.8 percent. The U.S. economy’s rude health has given rise to speculation the Fed might resume raising interest rates. Unlikely. But as other countries — Canada, Sweden and Australia are the latest — hint at more policy easing, there seems to be one way the dollar can go. Up.

(GRAPHIC: Dollar outperforms G10 FX – https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dz17S5)

2/FED: UP OR DOWN?

Wall Street is near record highs and recession worries are receding, so as we mentioned above, investors might wonder if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates again.

Such a pivot is unlikely after the Fed killed off rate-rise expectations at its March meeting. And the latest Reuters poll all but puts to bed any risk of rates will go up this economic cycle, given inflation remains below the Fed’s alarm threshold and unemployment is the lowest in generations.

Before the March rate-pause announcement, a preponderance of economists penciled in one or more increases this year. But that has flipped. A majority of those surveyed April 22-24 see no further tightening through December and more are leaning toward a cut by the end of next year.

Indeed, interest rate futures imply Fed Funds will be below the current 2.25-2.50 percent target range by this December.

Recent positive consumer spending and exports data have eased market concerns of a sharp economic slowdown. But inflation probably needs to run hot for a long period to panic policymakers off their wait-and-see course.     

(GRAPHIC: Federal funds and the economy – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DzjTZz)

3/HEISEI TO REIWA

Next week ends three decades of Japan’s Heisei era. Heisei, or Achieving Peace, began in 1989 near the peak of a massive stock market bubble and closes with the country trapped in low growth, no inflation, and negative interest rates.

The new era that dawns on May 1 is called Reiwa, meaning Beautiful Harmony. It begins when Crown Prince Naruhito ascends the Chrysanthemum Throne. But do investors really want harmony? What they want to see is a bit of economic growth and inflation to shake up the status quo.

The Bank of Japan’s stimulus toolkit to revive a long-suffering economy is anything but harmonious and yet it’s set to stay. The central bank confirmed recently rates will stay near zero for a long time. But the coming days may not be harmonious or peaceful for currency markets. A 10-day Golden Week holiday kicks off on April 29 and investors are fretting over the risk of a “flash crash” – a violent currency spasm that can occur in times of thin trading turnover.

The year has already seen two yen spikes and many, including Japan’s housewife-trader brigade – so-called Mrs Watanabes – appear to have bought yen as the holiday approaches. Their short dollar/long yen positions recently reached record highs, stock exchange data showed.

(GRAPHIC: Japan stocks: from Hensei to Reiwa – https://tmsnrt.rs/2W6a7Fe)

4/EARNING TURNING

Quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier.

Two-thirds of companies’ results have beat expectations, and they point to earnings growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.

That might just show how low expectations were. In fact, analysts are still taking a red pen to their estimates.

The latest I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv shows analysts on average expect first-quarter earnings-per-share for STOXX 600-listed companies to fall 4.2 percent. That would be their worst quarter since 2016 and down sharply from an estimated 3.4 percent just a week earlier.

Those estimates may end up being a little too bearish as earnings season goes on, quelling worries that Europe is heading toward a corporate recession.

GSK and Reckitt Benckiser will give the market a glimpse of the health of the consumer products market and spending on everything from toothpaste, washing powder and paracetamol.

(GRAPHIC: Earnings forecasts – https://tmsnrt.rs/2DuO2ZF)

5/WAITING FOR THE OLD LADY

Sterling has gone into the doldrums amid the Brexit delay and unproductive talks between the UK government and the opposition Labour party on a EU withdrawal deal. The resurgent dollar, meanwhile, has taken 2 percent off the pound in April. It is unlikely the Bank of England will be able to rouse it at its May 2 meeting.

Despite robust retail and jobs data of late, the economic picture is gloomy – 2019 growth is likely to be around 1.2 percent, the weakest since 2009, investment is down and Governor Mark Carney says business uncertainty is “through the roof”.

Indeed, expectations for an interest rate increase have been whittled down; Reuters polls forecast rates will not move until early 2020, a calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. The hunt for a new governor to replace Carney in October adds more uncertainty to the mix.

The recent run of UK data has fueled hopes of economic rebound. That’s put net hedge fund positions in the pound into positive territory for the first time in nearly a year. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street might temper some of that optimism.

(GRAPHIC: Sterling positions – https://tmsnrt.rs/2XJwUXX)

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York, Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Karin Strohecker, Josephine Mason and Saikat Chatterjee in London; compiled by Sujata Rao; edited by Larry King)

Source: OANN

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