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FILE PHOTO: An aerial photo looking north shows shipping containers at the Port of Seattle and the Elliott Bay waterfront in Seattle, Washington, U.S. March 21, 2019. REUTERS/Lindsey Wasson
April 26, 2019
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors.
The Commerce Department’s gross domestic product (GDP) report to be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) is expected to sketch a picture of an economy growing close to potential, mostly reflecting the impact of an ebbing boost from a giant fiscal stimulus and past interest rate increases.
Gross domestic product probably increased at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter as a burst in exports, strong inventory stockpiling and government investment in public construction projects offset slowdowns in consumer and business spending, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
With global growth still sluggish, the surge in exports is likely to reverse and the inventory build will probably need to be worked off, which could curtail production at factories. That could restrain growth in the second quarter.
The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the October-December period. Growth has stepped down from a peak 4.2 percent pace in the second quarter of 2018, when the White House’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package jolted consumer spending.
Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at between 1.7 and 2.0 percent. The economy will mark 10 years of expansion in July, the longest on record.
“The economy remains solid, but we anticipate a slowing in the pace of growth in the medium term as the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus fade and the headwinds of tighter monetary policy take hold,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The economy stumbled at the turn of the year, with a batch of weak economic reports suggesting first-quarter GDP growth as low as a 0.2 percent rate. The soft data stream stoked fears of a recession that were also exacerbated by a brief inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.
Some of the weak data, especially retail sales, were blamed on a 35-day partial shutdown of the federal government, which hurt confidence and delayed processing of tax refunds. Since the shutdown ended on Jan. 25, economic data have mostly perked up, leading to a sharp upgrading of first-quarter GDP estimates.
“Slower, but moderate economic growth is continuing and we might see some slight acceleration as we head into second quarter,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.
WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND
The improvement in the economy’s fortunes has been mirrored by strong corporate profits for the quarter.
Some economists caution that growth could surprise on the downside because of a seasonal quirk. The so-called residual seasonality has tended to understate economic growth in the first quarter. Though the government said last year it had addressed the methodology problem, economists believe residual seasonality has not been entirely eliminated from the data.
A surge in exports and weak imports are expected to have sharply narrowed the trade deficit in the first quarter. Trade is believed to have added more than one percentage point to GDP after being neutral in the fourth quarter.
Trade tensions between the United States and China have caused wild swings in the trade deficit, with exporters and importers trying to stay ahead of the tariff fight between the two economic giants.
The trade standoff has also had an impact on inventories, which are expected to have increased in the first quarter at their strongest pace since 2015. Part of the inventory build is related to weak demand, especially in the automotive sector.
Inventories are expected to have contributed a full percentage point to first-quarter GDP after adding one-tenth of a percentage point in the October-December period.
Excluding trade and inventories, the economy is expected to have expanded at a roughly 1.6 percent rate in the first quarter. Economists said Federal Reserve officials were likely to focus on this growth measure.
The Fed recently suspended its three-year monetary policy tightening campaign, dropping forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year. The U.S. central bank increased borrowing costs four times in 2018.
“The composition of the data will not look favorably on domestic economic activity, nor provide a positive forward look at current quarter activity,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Policymakers will likely look past this growth report when formulating rate policy.”
Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have slowed significantly from the fourth quarter’s 2.5 percent rate. Economists said the government shutdown was the main factor behind the anticipated deceleration in spending.
A moderation is also expected in businesses spending on equipment because of the delayed impact of sharp drops in oil prices toward the end of 2018 and fading depreciation provisions in the 2018 tax bill. Supply chain disruptions caused by Washington’s trade war with Beijing were also seen crimping business investment.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
Source: OANN
North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un on Thursday accused the United States of operating in “bad faith” at February’s Hanoi summit, which produced no breakthroughs in talks about the North’s denuclearization and U.S. sanctions.
Kim added peace on the peninsula depended on the United States’ “future attitude.“
At the meeting in Vietnam between the two leaders, Trump had demanded sanctions relief only if North Korean abandoned its nuclear weapons program. Kim wanted sanctions relief in exchange for dismantling a single nuclear facility.
But the balance the U.S. sought shifted dramatically Thursday, when Kim met with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin — a sit-down described by the Korean Central News Agency as “unreserved and friendly,” AFP reported.
Kim declared “the situation on the Korean peninsula and the region is now at a standstill and has reached a critical point,” the news agency reported. And he warned the situation “may return to its original state as the U.S. took an unilateral attitude in bad faith at the recent second DPRK-US summit talks.”
“Peace and security on the Korean peninsula will entirely depend on the U.S. future attitude, and the DPRK will gird itself for every possible situation,” he said, AFP reported.
Kim said he hoped to usher in a “new heyday” in ties between Pyongyang and Moscow.
Source: NewsMax Politics
FILE PHOTO: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks during a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, January 9, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
April 26, 2019
OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada could start hiking rates again “sometime down the road,” although such a move will depend on whether upcoming economic data backs up its assessment that a current slowdown is only a temporary detour, the central bank’s head said on Thursday.
The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates five times since July 2017, although it has stayed on the sidelines in recent decisions as global trade concerns, the slumping oil sector and a weaker housing sector have weighed on the Canadian economy.
The bank again held rates steady on Wednesday but took a more dovish stance than in recent releases, removing wording around the need for “future hikes,” while lowering its growth forecasts for 2019.
But in a televised interview with Maclean’s magazine on Thursday, Governor Stephen Poloz said the central bank believed the slowdown would be temporary, lasting “a couple of quarters,” and implied the worst was already over.
“What we have to do then is wait and see if the data proves to us that we were right about that,” he said. “Assuming we are, then sometime down the road we’ll be able to say: ‘OK, now it’s time to start normalizing again,’ but that remains to be seen.”
He repeated that any move would be data-dependent.
The Bank of Canada estimates its neutral range is between 2.25 and 3.25 percent. The overnight interest rate is currently at 1.75 percent.
Poloz also said there was nothing to signal that Canada was on the verge of recession, but when asked if U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies could provoke a new global recession, he said: “Certainly.”
“When you think about the gains in income and living standards that have been created by trade liberalization in a postwar period, to erase even a portion of those would be to risk causing a recession globally,” Poloz said.
(Reporting by Julie Gordon and David Ljunggren in Ottawa; Editing by Peter Cooney)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO: An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China July 6, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song
April 26, 2019
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian shares got off to a subdued start on Friday, while the dollar held near two-year highs against the euro on speculation that data later in the day will show the U.S. economy outperforming the rest of the developed world.
The euro was off 1 percent for the week at $1.1133 as euro zone economic figures continued to disappoint.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was 0.8 percent firmer for the week so far at 98.128 having touched its highest since May 2017.
The yen proved an outlier by gaining as speculators cut short positions ahead of holidays which will see most Japanese markets shut for six whole trading days.
The exceptionally long break has investors concerned there could be another “flash crash” like the one in early January that drove the yen massively higher in a matter of minutes.
The dollar was down at 111.51 yen, after shedding 0.5 percent overnight, but was buoyed elsewhere by solid data on U.S. capital goods orders.
The rise in the yen and some mixed Japanese economic data nudged the Nikkei down 0.7 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1 percent.
The mood might lighten later on Thursday should data on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) prove as upbeat as some now expect.
A string of solid numbers has led analysts to revise up their forecasts for growth and the latest median polled by Reuters is for an annualized 2.0 percent.
The closely-watched estimate of GDP from the Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting an outcome of 2.7 percent, a huge turnaround from a few weeks ago when it was down at 0.5 percent.
Yet the rebound has not been mirrored in inflation which remains subdued across much of the developed world, prompting a host of central banks to turn dovish.
Just this week central banks in Sweden and Canada have backed off plans to tighten, while the Bank of Japan tried to dispel doubts about its accommodative stance by pledging to keep rates at super-low levels for at least one more year.
European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos on Thursday opened the door to more money-printing if needed to boost inflation in the euro zone.
Rate cuts look much likelier in Australia and New Zealand after recent disappointingly weak inflation reports.
The Federal Reserve holds a policy meeting next week and is expected to reaffirm its patient stance. A Reuters poll of analysts out Thursday found most believed the Fed was done with tightening altogether.
MIXED EARNINGS
Wall Street had ended Thursday mixed after a raft of earnings reports. The Dow fell 0.51 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 0.04 percent and the Nasdaq added 0.21 percent.
Amazon.com Inc shares firmed after the market closed as the company reported a first-quarter profit that topped estimates.
Shares of Facebook Inc and Microsoft Corp both jumped after they reported better-than-expected results. Intel Corp fell sharply after the chip maker forecast current-quarter revenue below estimates.
In commodity markets, spot gold was idling at $1,278.26 per ounce.
Brent crude ran into profit-taking after hitting $75 per barrel on Thursday for the first time in nearly six months following the suspension of some Russian crude exports to Europe.
Brent crude futures lost 20 cents to $74.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude was last down 24 cents at $64.97 a barrel.
(Editing by Kim Coghill)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO: One hundred dollar notes are seen in this photo illustration at a bank in Seoul January 9, 2013. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won
April 26, 2019
By Shinichi Saoshiro
TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar hovered near a two-year high against its peers on Friday, supported by strong U.S. capital goods orders and awaiting first-quarter GDP data which could further reinforce the greenback’s bullish standing.
The dollar index versus a basket of six major currencies stood at 98.128 after advancing to 98.322 on Thursday, its highest since May 2017.
Data on Thursday showed new orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased by the most in eight months in March. That follows other recent U.S. data that show strength in retail sales and exports which have eased concerns of the world’s biggest economy sharply slowing.
The markets are watching first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data due later on Friday (1230 GMT) for signs of whether the United States remains stronger than other leading economies.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP probably increased at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the quarter. The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the October-December period.
“We expect the GDP data to underline steady economic recovery. Differences in economic fundamentals is a key driver for currencies now that the Fed – and more recently the Swedish and Japanese central banks – have adopted a dovish stance,” said Shin Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.
Sweden’s central bank said on Thursday that recent weak inflationary pressures meant an interest rate hike would come slightly later than it had planned, sending the Swedish crown to a 17-year low.
In a move to dispel any doubt over its commitment to ultra-loose policies, the Bank of Japan on Thursday put a time frame on its forward guidance for the first time by telling investors that it would keep interest rates at super-low levels for at least one more year.
The euro was a touch higher at $1.1139 but within reach of $1.1117, its lowest level since June 2017 plumbed on Thursday.
The single currency has shed nearly 1 percent against the dollar this week, weighed by worries about the health of the euro zone economy.
The dollar was down 0.1 percent at 111.52 yen after shedding 0.5 percent overnight.
The Australian dollar was steady at $0.7018 after ending Thursday little changed.
The Aussie has lost roughly 2 percent this week, during which it sank to a near four-month trough as soft domestic inflation data boosted the prospect of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
(Reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Kim Coghill)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO: Shipping containers are seen at a port in Shanghai, China July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song
April 26, 2019
By Shrutee Sarkar
BENGALURU (Reuters) – Major central banks are done tightening policy, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, with the growth outlook wilting across developed and emerging economies along with scant prospects for a surge in inflation.
While that is largely reflected in bond markets, with major sovereign bond yields falling this year, global equities have rallied, and the S&P 500 index is near record highs after its best start this year in more than three decades.
One striking conclusion from the latest surveys of over 500 economists from around the world, covering more than 40 economies, was not just a toning down of the economic outlook, but a clear shift away from long-held optimistic views.
Although economists who answered an additional question were split on whether a deeper global economic downturn was more likely than a synchronized rebound, this year’s growth outlook was downgraded or left unchanged for 38 of the countries polled.
“The recent weakness of global growth will persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. A dovish turn by central banks and stimulus in China will not be enough to boost world GDP growth from its current slow pace,” noted Jennifer McKeown, head of global economics at Capital Economics.
“Disappointing economic performance will leave inflation very low and cause monetary policy to be loosened almost across the board. But we do not see this prompting any meaningful recovery until 2021.”
Global growth was forecast to average 3.4 percent this year, the lowest since polling began for 2019 almost two years ago. The most optimistic prediction was also more modest than at the start of the year.
The 2020 forecast held at 3.4 percent, the joint lowest since Reuters began polling on it.
However, the 2019 consensus was a touch higher than the International Monetary Fund’s latest view of 3.3 percent.
The risk of an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war and prospects of Britain exiting the European Union without a deal – two of the more prominent threats that initially drove the current slowdown – have eased.
Yet most major central banks have been hinting at a move away from hiking rates, and nearly 60 percent of more than 200 economists who answered a separate question said they were confident the global tightening cycle was over.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan dispelled any doubt about its commitment to ultra-loose policies and Sweden’s central bank said a forecast interest rate hike would come slightly later than it had planned.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising rates until at least the end of next year, with about a third of economists polled predicting at least one rate cut by then.
With euro zone economic growth and inflation prospects dimming, the European Central Bank may have missed its opportunity to raise rates before the next downturn.
“The ECB blames the euro zone weakness on a slowdown in China and concerns about the trade war. The Fed, meanwhile, pointed the finger to Europe and China as the main drags on U.S. growth. But with everyone looking across the border for a scapegoat, someone must inevitably be watching the wrong space,” noted Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank.
“One could speculate that the central banks are pointing the finger just because they have little confidence that their actions are effective.”
Growth forecasts for developed economies – including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Britain, Japan, Australia, the United States and Canada – for this year and next weakened.
It was not very different for emerging market economies, despite efforts from policymakers to boost sluggish growth.
Economic growth in major economies from Asia to Africa to Latin America was predicted to lose more momentum.
Although India is still expected to be the fastest-growing major economy, growth predictions were lowered compared with the previous poll.
“Looser fiscal and monetary policy should help to cushion the impact of weaker export demand on growth in emerging Asia. Nevertheless, regional growth this year is still likely to slow to its weakest rate in a decade,” added Capital Economics’ McKeown.
(Analysis and additional reporting by Indradip Ghosh in Bengaluru; Polling and reporting by the Reuters Polls team in Bengaluru and bureaus in Shanghai, Tokyo, London, Milan, Paris, Oslo, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Toronto, Brasilia, Mexico City, Lima, Buenos Aires, Bogota, Caracas and Santiago; Editing by Ross Finley and Hugh Lawson)
Source: OANN
A member of the Libyan internationally recognised government forces fires during a fight with Eastern forces in Ain Zara, Tripoli, Libya April 25, 2019. REUTERS/Hani Amara
April 25, 2019
By Ahmed Elumami and Hani Amara
TRIPOLI (Reuters) – The United Nations on Thursday evacuated more than 350 migrants from a detention center in southern Tripoli where a fierce battle raged as fighters from rival Libyan camps traded rockets and artillery shells.
The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by commander Khalifa Haftar, which is allied to a rival government in eastern Libya, has mounted an offensive on Tripoli but has so far failed to breach the city’s southern defenses.
The group of migrants could be seen traveling on Thursday in buses to a detention center in Zawiya, a town 40 km (25 miles) west of the capital, bringing the total evacuated since Wednesday to around 675.
They came from a facility in the Qasr Ben Gashir district run by the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli, an area that has become the main theater of fighting.
A Reuters reporter in the suburb of Ain Zara, also in southern Tripoli, saw heavy clashes, with both sides using artillery and anti-aircraft guns.
Forces loyal to the Tripoli government have managed to push back the LNA on some southern frontlines though the LNA was still fighting inside southern Tripoli. The Tripoli forces have gained ground in some parts of Ain Zara.
Gunfire rang through a narrow street packed with pickup trucks mounted with anti aircraft guns as fighters allied to Tripoli forces shouted: “Haftar, we are coming”.
One fighter from Zintan, a region west of the capital, was firing his anti-aircraft gun for several minutes. Later he was killed by an incoming rocket, his comrades told Reuters.
Two others from the same armed group died later as shelling from the battle in southern suburbs could be heard in central Tripoli late at night, witnesses said.
The LNA also still holds the forward base of Gharyan, a town 80 km (50 miles) south of Tripoli, which is difficult to take due to its mountainous location.
Hospitals are struggling with chronic shortages of medical supplies amid power outages and weakened water pumping stations, the aid agency said in a statement after three weeks of clashes.
“It is crucial that hospitals, medical facilities, health staff and vehicles transporting the wounded are allowed to carry out their activities safely,” said International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in a statement.
The World Health Organization said on Twitter that 278 people have been killed in the last three weeks, while 1,332 others have been wounded.
(Additional reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Writing by Ahmed Elumami and Ulf Laessing; Editing by Gareth Jones, Toby Chopra and James Dalgleish)
Source: OANN
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok, Russia in this undated photo released on April 25, 2019 by North Korea’s Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS
April 25, 2019
SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, during his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said peace and security on the Korean peninsula will entirely depend on the future U.S. attitude, state media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said on Friday.
Kim’s remarks are seen as keeping pressure on the U.S. to be “more flexible” in accepting Pyongyang’s demands to ease sanctions, compared to the U.S. stance during the collapsed second U.S.-North Korea summit in February in Hanoi, as he said earlier this month.
Kim said at the time he will wait “till the end of this year” for the United States to change its mind.
“The situation on the Korean peninsula and the region is now at a standstill and has reached a critical point where it may return to its original state as the U.S. took a unilateral attitude in bad faith at the recent second DPRK-U.S. summit talks,” KCNA reported Kim saying, using North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Kim invited Putin to North Korea at a convenient time and Putin accepted, KCNA said.
The first face-to-face talks between Putin and Kim, held on an island off the Russian Pacific city of Vladivostok on Thursday, did not appear to have yielded any major breakthrough.
The two leaders had an in-depth discussion on the ways for the two countries to promote the strategic communication and tactical collaboration in the course of ensuring peace and security on the Korean peninsula and in the region, KCNA said.
Putin said afterward he thought a deal on Pyongyang’s nuclear program was possible and that the way to get there was to move forward step-by-step in order to build trust.
But any U.S. guarantees might need to be supported by the other nations involved in previous six-way talks on the nuclear issue, Putin said, which was seen as an attempt to use the summit to strengthen Russia’s diplomatic clout as a global player.
Both Russia and North Korea agreed to take positive measures in several fields in order to further cooperate in trade, economy, science and technology, KCNA said.
(Reporting by Joyce Lee and Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Bill Berkrot and Chris Reese)
Source: OANN
A Los Angeles business owner says she is at her wits’ end as local streets are piled with garbage and flooded with “raw sewage” by homeless people and squatters while lawmakers turn a blind eye.
Karen Hix, a lifelong resident of the area whose family has owned a business in the same location for over 100 years, says transients are being allowed to create a “health crisis” by officials in the sanctuary city.
Hix’s plight caught the eye of Tucker Carlson, who invited her onto his show to discuss the decay of her neighborhood and share photos of the filth.
“Some of these pictures are almost too disgusting to put on the screen, but we have a number of them of RVs – people are living those full-time?” Carlson asked.
“Yes, people are living in them full-time,” Hix confirmed. “You’ll notice there is raw sewage that is coming out. This raw sewage ends up in one place – in our gutters, which go down to our ocean. It’s more than an environmental crisis, it’s a health crisis down in this area.”
“I have reached out to our councilperson, Councilman [Curren] Price; I’ve reach out to Mayor [Eric] Garcetti, and as of today, they have not contacted me.”
A shocked Carlson asked Nix how someone such as Garcetti, who lives in Los Angeles, could not notice his city is falling apart.
“I would love to have a discussion about how, ‘You have invited them here to live on our streets and our sidewalks by disregarding the laws that are actually in place and not letting our law enforcement actually enforce these laws, so now you need to deal with what this has brought’ – that’s what I would love to say to them,” Hix responded, alluding to the city’s ‘sanctuary status’ for illegal aliens and vagrants.
Interestingly, the aforementioned Councilman Curren Price was recently awarded the 2018 “Champion for Change” award by the Central American Resource Center (CARECEN), in recognition of his work on behalf of “immigrant families” residing in the district.
“Councilman Price partnered with CARECEN from 2017-2018 to provide FREE legal service and filing fee assistance to individuals and families living in CD 9,” touts Price’s website. “The program helped nearly 600 South LA neighbors with their Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and citizenship applications.”
California officially declared itself a ‘sanctuary state’ in January, 2018.
Owen Shroyer satirically announces California’s passage of ‘The New Gangrene Deal’ in light of exploding homeless populations across the state.
Dan Lyman: Follow @CitizenAnalyst
Source: InfoWars
A man looks out at a flooded residential area in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada, April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie
April 25, 2019
MONTREAL/OTTAWA (Reuters) – Rising waters are leading to further evacuations in central Canada, with the mayor of the country’s capital Ottawa declaring a state of emergency, and Quebec authorities warning that a hydroelectric dam was at risk of breaking.
Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson declared a state of emergency for the city in response to rising water levels along the Ottawa River and weather forecasts that called for significant rainfall on Friday.
In a statement on Twitter, Watson asked for help from the Canadian province of Ontario and the country’s military.
He warned that “flood levels are currently forecasted to exceed the levels that caused significant damage to numerous properties in the city of Ottawa in 2017.”
Spring flooding has killed one person and forced more than 900 people from their homes in Canada’s Quebec province as of Thursday at 1 p.m., according to a government website.
Quebec’s Public Security Ministry warned on Thursday that the hydroelectric dam at Bell Falls on the Rouge River in the western part of the province was at risk of failure because of rising water levels.
Quebec’s provincial police said 250 people were protectively being removed from their homes as of late afternoon in case the dam breaks.
(Reporting by Allison Lampert and David Ljunggren; Editing by James Dalgleish)
Source: OANN
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