Monetary policy

FILE PHOTO: An aerial photo looking north shows shipping containers at the Port of Seattle and the Elliott Bay waterfront in Seattle
FILE PHOTO: An aerial photo looking north shows shipping containers at the Port of Seattle and the Elliott Bay waterfront in Seattle, Washington, U.S. March 21, 2019. REUTERS/Lindsey Wasson

April 26, 2019

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors.

The Commerce Department’s gross domestic product (GDP) report to be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) is expected to sketch a picture of an economy growing close to potential, mostly reflecting the impact of an ebbing boost from a giant fiscal stimulus and past interest rate increases.

Gross domestic product probably increased at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter as a burst in exports, strong inventory stockpiling and government investment in public construction projects offset slowdowns in consumer and business spending, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

With global growth still sluggish, the surge in exports is likely to reverse and the inventory build will probably need to be worked off, which could curtail production at factories. That could restrain growth in the second quarter.

The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the October-December period. Growth has stepped down from a peak 4.2 percent pace in the second quarter of 2018, when the White House’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package jolted consumer spending.

Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at between 1.7 and 2.0 percent. The economy will mark 10 years of expansion in July, the longest on record.

“The economy remains solid, but we anticipate a slowing in the pace of growth in the medium term as the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus fade and the headwinds of tighter monetary policy take hold,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The economy stumbled at the turn of the year, with a batch of weak economic reports suggesting first-quarter GDP growth as low as a 0.2 percent rate. The soft data stream stoked fears of a recession that were also exacerbated by a brief inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

Some of the weak data, especially retail sales, were blamed on a 35-day partial shutdown of the federal government, which hurt confidence and delayed processing of tax refunds. Since the shutdown ended on Jan. 25, economic data have mostly perked up, leading to a sharp upgrading of first-quarter GDP estimates.

“Slower, but moderate economic growth is continuing and we might see some slight acceleration as we head into second quarter,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.

WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND

The improvement in the economy’s fortunes has been mirrored by strong corporate profits for the quarter.

Some economists caution that growth could surprise on the downside because of a seasonal quirk. The so-called residual seasonality has tended to understate economic growth in the first quarter. Though the government said last year it had addressed the methodology problem, economists believe residual seasonality has not been entirely eliminated from the data.

A surge in exports and weak imports are expected to have sharply narrowed the trade deficit in the first quarter. Trade is believed to have added more than one percentage point to GDP after being neutral in the fourth quarter.

Trade tensions between the United States and China have caused wild swings in the trade deficit, with exporters and importers trying to stay ahead of the tariff fight between the two economic giants.

The trade standoff has also had an impact on inventories, which are expected to have increased in the first quarter at their strongest pace since 2015. Part of the inventory build is related to weak demand, especially in the automotive sector.

Inventories are expected to have contributed a full percentage point to first-quarter GDP after adding one-tenth of a percentage point in the October-December period.

Excluding trade and inventories, the economy is expected to have expanded at a roughly 1.6 percent rate in the first quarter. Economists said Federal Reserve officials were likely to focus on this growth measure.

The Fed recently suspended its three-year monetary policy tightening campaign, dropping forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year. The U.S. central bank increased borrowing costs four times in 2018.

“The composition of the data will not look favorably on domestic economic activity, nor provide a positive forward look at current quarter activity,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Policymakers will likely look past this growth report when formulating rate policy.”

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have slowed significantly from the fourth quarter’s 2.5 percent rate. Economists said the government shutdown was the main factor behind the anticipated deceleration in spending.

A moderation is also expected in businesses spending on equipment because of the delayed impact of sharp drops in oil prices toward the end of 2018 and fading depreciation provisions in the 2018 tax bill. Supply chain disruptions caused by Washington’s trade war with Beijing were also seen crimping business investment.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Source: OANN

Shipping containers are seen at a port in Shanghai
FILE PHOTO: Shipping containers are seen at a port in Shanghai, China July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song

April 26, 2019

By Shrutee Sarkar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Major central banks are done tightening policy, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, with the growth outlook wilting across developed and emerging economies along with scant prospects for a surge in inflation.

While that is largely reflected in bond markets, with major sovereign bond yields falling this year, global equities have rallied, and the S&P 500 index is near record highs after its best start this year in more than three decades.

One striking conclusion from the latest surveys of over 500 economists from around the world, covering more than 40 economies, was not just a toning down of the economic outlook, but a clear shift away from long-held optimistic views.

Although economists who answered an additional question were split on whether a deeper global economic downturn was more likely than a synchronized rebound, this year’s growth outlook was downgraded or left unchanged for 38 of the countries polled.

“The recent weakness of global growth will persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. A dovish turn by central banks and stimulus in China will not be enough to boost world GDP growth from its current slow pace,” noted Jennifer McKeown, head of global economics at Capital Economics.

“Disappointing economic performance will leave inflation very low and cause monetary policy to be loosened almost across the board. But we do not see this prompting any meaningful recovery until 2021.”

Global growth was forecast to average 3.4 percent this year, the lowest since polling began for 2019 almost two years ago. The most optimistic prediction was also more modest than at the start of the year.

The 2020 forecast held at 3.4 percent, the joint lowest since Reuters began polling on it.

However, the 2019 consensus was a touch higher than the International Monetary Fund’s latest view of 3.3 percent.

The risk of an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war and prospects of Britain exiting the European Union without a deal – two of the more prominent threats that initially drove the current slowdown – have eased.

Yet most major central banks have been hinting at a move away from hiking rates, and nearly 60 percent of more than 200 economists who answered a separate question said they were confident the global tightening cycle was over.

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan dispelled any doubt about its commitment to ultra-loose policies and Sweden’s central bank said a forecast interest rate hike would come slightly later than it had planned.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising rates until at least the end of next year, with about a third of economists polled predicting at least one rate cut by then.

With euro zone economic growth and inflation prospects dimming, the European Central Bank may have missed its opportunity to raise rates before the next downturn.

“The ECB blames the euro zone weakness on a slowdown in China and concerns about the trade war. The Fed, meanwhile, pointed the finger to Europe and China as the main drags on U.S. growth. But with everyone looking across the border for a scapegoat, someone must inevitably be watching the wrong space,” noted Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank.

“One could speculate that the central banks are pointing the finger just because they have little confidence that their actions are effective.”

Growth forecasts for developed economies – including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Britain, Japan, Australia, the United States and Canada – for this year and next weakened.

It was not very different for emerging market economies, despite efforts from policymakers to boost sluggish growth.

Economic growth in major economies from Asia to Africa to Latin America was predicted to lose more momentum.

Although India is still expected to be the fastest-growing major economy, growth predictions were lowered compared with the previous poll.

“Looser fiscal and monetary policy should help to cushion the impact of weaker export demand on growth in emerging Asia. Nevertheless, regional growth this year is still likely to slow to its weakest rate in a decade,” added Capital Economics’ McKeown.

(Analysis and additional reporting by Indradip Ghosh in Bengaluru; Polling and reporting by the Reuters Polls team in Bengaluru and bureaus in Shanghai, Tokyo, London, Milan, Paris, Oslo, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Toronto, Brasilia, Mexico City, Lima, Buenos Aires, Bogota, Caracas and Santiago; Editing by Ross Finley and Hugh Lawson)

Source: OANN

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso holds a news conference after the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting at the IMF and World Bank's 2019 Annual Spring Meetings
FILE PHOTO: Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso holds a news conference after the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting at the IMF and World Bank’s 2019 Annual Spring Meetings, in Washington, April 12, 2019. REUTERS/James Lawler Duggan

April 25, 2019

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Thursday he told U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that Tokyo cannot accept discussions that link monetary policy to trade issues, Jiji news agency reported.

Aso also said the two sides agreed that exchange-rate matters would be discussed between financial authorities, and that Tokyo and Washington should not talk about currency issues in the context of the trade debate, according to Jiji.

Aso and Mnuchin held a bilateral meeting in Washington ahead of a summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump later this week.

(Reporting by David Lawder and Jason Lange in Washington, Leika Kihara in Tokyo; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington, U.S., March 19, 2019. REUTERS/Leah Millis

April 25, 2019

By Hari Kishan

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, while about a third of economists polled by Reuters who had a view that far out predicted at least one rate cut by then.

The latest results come just days after Wall Street stocks touched record highs in a bounceback from a rout at the end of last year, thanks in large part to expectations that benchmark borrowing costs have now stopped in their tracks.

In a March 15 poll, more than 70 percent of economists had penciled in a hike this year. But a similar majority predicted no hikes or at least one rate cut by the end of 2020 in a March 29 survey, right after the Fed dramatically shifted its “dot plot” projections to suggest no more hikes this year.

The view the Fed’s tightening cycle, which began in December 2015, is over has strengthened further in the latest poll of more than 100 economists taken April 22-24. An increasing number of respondents are now predicting a rate cut by the end of 2020.

“I think the bar is pretty high for tightening,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “They don’t just want inflation to get back up to 2 percent, but they want it to go above 2 percent for a while.”

Interest rate futures are already pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut later this year.

History shows the Fed has almost never raised rates after a very long pause in the middle of tightening. Many analysts say it would likely need inflation to run hot for a prolonged period to justify another rate hike, especially this late in an already long economic cycle.

But core PCE inflation – which the Fed watches closely – is not forecast to rise significantly. It is instead predicted to remain below the 2 percent target in each quarter this year and average 2 percent in each quarter next year.

“The Fed is going to be on hold indefinitely from here,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America. “It’s got nothing to do with growth data – the growth data look fine – the economy is coming back to trend. In fact, if anything, the data are slightly better than expected right now, so it’s all about inflation.”

With recent data coming in better than expected, the latest growth forecast for the January-March quarter was upgraded to an annualized 2.0 percent compared with 1.6 percent predicted in the previous poll.

The current quarter’s expansion was pegged at 2.5 percent but momentum is expected to gradually ease after that, falling to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020.

Still, only a handful of economists have penciled in a recession by the end of next year.

While the median probability of a U.S. recession in the coming 12 months held steady at 25 percent compared to the previous month, it was down to 35 percent for the next two years from 40 percent in the March poll.

“We do not believe a recession is imminent. We do see GDP growth slowing over the next 18 months as fiscal stimulus tailwinds fade and previous tighter monetary policy actions take hold,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

“That said, event risk is high and has the potential to provide the catalyst for the next down turn.”

But the bond market is telling a different story, with the yield gap between U.S. 3-month bill rates and 10-year Treasuries – closely watched by the Fed and increasingly so by market participants – inverting in March.

An inversion, when shorter-dated maturities yield more than longer-dated ones, has in the past been a reliable predictor of recessions.

Over 60 percent of economists who answered an extra question said the bond market is giving a wrong steer this time.

“The long end of the curve is unusually low, and it is not driven by the risk of a recession in the U.S. as much as it is we have got chronically low rates outside of the U.S. and we have the big fat balance sheet,” added Bank of America’s Harris.

(Reuters poll graphic on U.S. recession probability: https://tmsnrt.rs/2O50W4M?eikon=true)

(Polling by Sujith Pai, Tushar Goenka and Anisha Sheth; Editing by Ross Finley and Hugh Lawson)

Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: Headquarters of the PBOC, the central bank, is pictured in Beijing
FILE PHOTO: Headquarters of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, is pictured in Beijing, China September 28, 2018. REUTERS/Jason Lee

April 25, 2019

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s central bank has no intent to tighten or relax monetary policy, a vice governor said on Thursday, adding that its use of reverse repos or a medium-term lending facility (MLF) does not signal it has a loosening bias.

Liu Guoqiang, a People’s Bank of China vice-governor, made the above comments at a briefing in Beijing.

China’s prudent monetary policy is appropriate overall, and is neither tight nor loose, Sun Guofeng, another PBOC official, said at the same briefing.

(Reporting by Beijing Monitoring Desk; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: A security guard walks past in front of the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo
FILE PHOTO: A security guard walks past in front of the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Japan January 23, 2019. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

April 25, 2019

TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady on Thursday and clarified its intention to keep interest rates very low for a prolonged period, committing to do so at least through around the spring of next year.

In a widely expected move, the BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1 percent and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around zero percent.

“The BOJ intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short-term and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020,” the BOJ said in a statement announcing its policy decision.

Until now, the BOJ did not have a specific time frame on how long it would maintain very low rates.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a news conference at 3:30 p.m. (0630 GMT) to explain the policy decision.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Stanley White and Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

Source: OANN

Illustration photo of U.S. Dollar and Euro notes
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Euro notes are seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration

April 25, 2019

By Daniel Leussink

TOKYO (Reuters) – The euro nursed losses against the dollar on Thursday after dipping to a 22-month low on a surprise drop in a leading indicator for economic activity in Germany, amplifying worries of a growth slowdown in Europe’s largest economy.

German business morale deteriorated in April, bucking expectations for a small improvement, a business index by the Munich-based Ifo economic institute showed on Wednesday, as trade tensions weighed on the German economy, leaving domestic demand to support slowing growth.

The greenback rallied to a 23-month high of 98.189 against a basket of key rivals overnight after gaining more than half a percent, largely propelled by the euro’s weakness. The index last traded slightly lower at 98.096.

“Yesterday’s strength of the dollar was exaggerated by the weakness in countries other than the U.S.,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“A big question is if the weakness in Australia and the euro area are temporary or not,” he said. “The main scenario is (for) a recovery in the second half of this year in the euro area and other regions.”

The euro sat at $1.1153, having suffered its biggest one-day loss against the dollar since early March when the European Central Bank pushed back plans for its first post-crisis interest rate hike.

The single currency also shed nearly 0.4 percent against the yen overnight and was last trading at 125.125 yen.

The Japanese currency slipped to a 2019 low of 112.40 yen per dollar on its own during the previous session, with traders eyeing a Bank of Japan policy decision later on Thursday for trading cues.

The BOJ is expected to keep monetary policy steady on Thursday and predict that inflation will fall short of its 2 percent target for three more years, signaling that its massive stimulus will stay in place for the foreseeable future.

The dollar was last a shade lower on the yen, changing hands at 112.12 yen.

The Australian dollar was largely unchanged at $0.7017.

The Aussie had given up nearly 1.3 percent during the previous session after weaker-than-expected Australian inflation numbers heightened the prospect of an interest rate cut.

The Canadian dollar was flat at $1.3495 after hitting a four-month low overnight, as investors raised bets on a Bank of Canada interest rate cut this year after the central bank slashed its economic growth outlook.

Market participants awaited policy decisions by the Swedish and Turkish central banks later on Thursday.

Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to keep its benchmark rate unchanged and may be forced to delay plans to tighten policy later in 2019, a Reuters poll of analysts published on Tuesday showed.

“The Riksbank may push further out the timing of the next rate hike, and also the market may speculate it’s too early for a rate cut by the Turkish central bank,” said Mizuho’s Yamamoto.

“That could be a negative for these currencies and positive for the dollar.”

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

Source: OANN

A man looks at an electronic board showing the Nikkei stock index outside a brokerage in Tokyo
FILE PHOTO: A man looks at an electronic board showing the Nikkei stock index outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, January 7, 2019. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

April 25, 2019

By Tomo Uetake

TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian shares slipped on Thursday as a surprise deterioration in German business morale rekindled fears of slowing global growth, while oil prices pulled back slightly after a sharp run-up earlier in the week.

The euro slumped to a 22-month low against the U.S. dollar overnight after the drop in German business confidence highlighted the divergence between data in the euro zone and the United States.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei average edged up 0.3 percent to 22,264.81 points.

Overnight, Wall Street shrugged off some earnings misses but drifted lower at the end of the session, after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite registered record closing highs on Tuesday.

Chotaro Morita, chief rates strategist at SMBC Nikko, noted

hopes that the Chinese economy is bottoming out have contributed to recent rallies in global equities.

“Corporate earnings that have been released so far suggests the worst period for the Chinese economy was over. While that is supportive of share prices, that alone is not enough to keep the rally going for more than a month,” he said.

In the currency market, the dollar index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of six major rivals, rose to as high as 98.189 overnight, its highest level since May 2017. The index was last quoted at 98.133.

The euro sat at $1.1150, having suffered its biggest one-day loss against the dollar since early March.

The deteriorating reading on German business morale, in a survey by the IFO economic institute, bucked expectations for a small improvement.

The pound held at a two-month low, weighed down by a broad-based rally in the dollar and fading hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit talks between the British government and the opposition.

U.S. Treasury yields fell across maturities on Wednesday as investors piled into the safe-haven asset after a slew of weak international economic data.

A sharp slowdown in Australian inflation also lifted bond prices, while Premier Li Keqiang in China said authorities should not underestimate the difficulties in the Chinese economy, adding to concerns about global demand.

However, the U.S. yield curve steepened to its widest level since November at one time on Wednesday, in an expression of bullish sentiment.

Oil prices hovered below six-month highs after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles surged to their highest levels since October 2017, countering fears of tight supply resulting from OPEC output cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.

Brent crude futures fell 0.4 percent to $74.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.5 percent to $65.57 a barrel. Both benchmarks hit 5-1/2-month highs on Tuesday.

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep monetary policy steady later on Thursday and predict that inflation will fall short of its 2 percent target for three more years, signaling that its massive stimulus will stay in place for the foreseeable future.

Investors are also awaiting the release of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter, due on Friday.

(Graphic: Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4).

(Reporting by Tomo Uetake; Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: A man walks past the Bank of England in the City of London
FILE PHOTO: A man walks past the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, February 7, 2019. REUTERS/Hannah McKay

April 24, 2019

LONDON (Reuters) – The Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates on hold until August 2020 because of a slower global economy and prolonged uncertainty about Brexit, a leading think tank said on Thursday.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research pushed back by a year its previous forecast of a BoE rate hike which it made as recently as February.

NIESR economist Garry Young said a weaker global economy, and its knock-in impact on oil prices and other imports, was impacting monetary policy around the world, while in Britain uncertainty about Brexit has also kept the BoE on the sidelines.

“Now we expect the first increase in Bank Rate to be next August rather than this August,” he said.

The weakness in prices of imports would help offset inflation pressure from rising wages at home, Young said.

Britain is facing more uncertainty about its future relationship with the European Union after a deadline for Brexit was delayed from April 12 until the end of October this month.

Last week, a Reuters poll showed most economists now expect the BoE to raise borrowing costs early next year.

The British central bank has raised rates twice to 0.75 percent from an all-time low of 0.25 percent but Governor Mark Carney said the outlook for the economy is now shrouded in the “fog of Brexit.”

NIESR trimmed its expectation for British economic growth this year to 1.4 percent from its February forecast of 1.5 percent. It expected growth to pick up to 1.6 percent in 2020.

The forecast was based on the assumption of a “soft” Brexit which avoids disruption at the Irish border and maintains a high degree of access to EU markets.

The growth outlook would be slower if Britain ends up in a customs union with the EU, as favored by the opposition Labour Party, or if the country leaves the EU without a transition deal, NIESR said.

(Writing by William Schomberg)

Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: A security guard walks past in front of the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo
FILE PHOTO: A security guard walks past in front of the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Japan January 23, 2019. REUTERS/Issei Kato

April 24, 2019

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan is expected to keep monetary policy steady on Thursday and predict that inflation will fall short of its 2 percent target for three more years, signaling that its massive stimulus will stay in place for the foreseeable future.

Given their dwindling policy tool-kit, BOJ officials have made clear that subdued inflation alone won’t trigger additional easing, and that the central bank will act only if risks threaten to derail Japan’s economic recovery.

But slowing global demand and simmering trade tensions have hurt Japan’s exports and business sentiment, putting the test to the BOJ’s projection the economy will keep expanding moderately.

With uncertainty over a scheduled sales tax hike in October also clouding the outlook, some analysts expect the BOJ to change its forward guidance in coming months to give markets more clarity on how long interest rates will remain very low.

“If the BOJ were to downgrade its inflation forecast, changing the forward guidance could be among options,” said Izuru Kato, chief economist at Totan Research.

“But the BOJ likely won’t do it this time,” because markets already expect any rate hike to be some time away, he added.

At a two-day meeting ending on Thursday, the BOJ is expected to maintain its short-term rate target at minus 0.1 percent and a pledge to guide long-term yields around zero percent. It is also expected to reiterate it will keep buying assets such as government bonds and exchange-traded equity funds.

In quarterly projections also due on Thursday, the BOJ may slightly cut its growth and price forecasts for the current fiscal year ending in March 2020, sources have told Reuters. It will also project inflation to move above 1.5 percent but fall short of 2 percent in fiscal 2021, they said.

Such projections will underscore a dominant market view that heightening risks and soft inflation will keep major central banks from whittling down crisis-mode policies any time soon.

Under forward guidance adopted last year, the BOJ pledged to keep rates very low for an “extended period” given uncertainties such as the impact of this year’s sales tax hike on the economy.

Some analysts say the BOJ could tweak the language to reassure markets that rates will stay ultra-low long after the tax increase takes place.

“The BOJ could extend its forward guidance and commit to maintaining current monetary easing at least through 2020,” said Hiroshi Ugai, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Securities.

Ugai said the BOJ could make the tweak on Thursday, though most analysts expect any such change to happen later this year.

Despite some government steps to soften the tax blow, analysts polled by Reuters expect it will briefly knock the economy into contraction in the fourth quarter.

Years of heavy money printing have failed to fire up inflation to the BOJ’s 2 percent target and left it with little ammunition to fight the next recession.

Prolonged easing has also added to stresses on regional banks, already facing slumping profits due to an ageing population and an exodus of borrowers to big cities.

Under current projections, the BOJ expects core consumer inflation to hit 1.1 percent in the year ending in March 2020 and accelerate to 1.5 percent next year. That is much higher than projections in a Reuters poll of 0.7 percent inflation this fiscal year and 0.8 percent the following year.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Source: OANN


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