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We got more signs that the economy is slowing down this week. And yet pundits and policymakers keep insisting everything is great.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff says he thinks people like Donald Trump and Larry Kudlow know deep down that things aren’t that great, but they want to keep kicking the can down the road for political reasons.
US manufacturing remained flat in March after two straight months of declines. It was the first quarterly drop in production since Pres. Trump took office. Economists had expected a slight rise in manufacturing in March.
Factory production dropped at a 1.1% annualized rate in the first quarter.
According to Reuters, “Soft manufacturing and slowing economic growth reflect the ebbing stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax cut package and supply chain disruptions caused by Washington’s trade war with China.”
Factory employment fell in March for the first time since July 2017.
Industrial production also dropped last month, falling 0.1% and missing Wall Street expectations of a o.1% gain.
Capacity utilization was also off. It was at 79 in February. Analysts expected an improvement to 79.1. Instead, it fell to 78.8.
Peter noted that Larry Kudlow said he doesn’t expect another Federal Reserve interest rate hike in his lifetime. And of course, Trump has actually been calling for more monetary stimulus. Why? Because they know that the economy isn’t really in very good shape and the want to keep the bubble inflated so Trump can get reelected.
“How can Donald Trump be saying on the one hand that we have the greatest economy in the history of the world, on the other hand, we need the same emergency monetary policy we needed in the depths of the Great Recession? That doesn’t make sense. We have the greatest economy, but we need emergency quantitative easing. Well, the reason it makes sense is because Trump knows we don’t have a great economy; he knows we have a great bubble. He knew we had a bubble as a candidate. He criticized the Fed for doing quantitative easing — for inflating the bubble. But now that he owns the bubble, he needs the Fed to do more QE to keep it from popping before the next election.”
Peter said one thing everybody is ignoring is inflation. The conventional wisdom is that there is no inflation. But there is. Federal Reserve money printing is inflation. Just because we haven’t seen it in the government consumer price numbers doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Inflation is all around us – in the stock markets, in the bond markets, in real estate and in a lot of prices.

This is why everybody is so sanguine about interest rates.
“See, the Fed can only keep rates low so long as there’s no inflation threat. So, that’s why initially they’re saying, ‘Well, we’re OK with inflation more than 2%. We’re OK if it’s symmetrical.’ … The reason they keep lowering the bar is because they can’t do anything about it. They have to keep pretending that inflation is not a threat because if they ever admit it’s a threat, what are they going to do? Nothing! They can’t raise interest rates. That is the problem. The reason they had to stop raising interest rates, the reason Larry Kudlow is so confident that we’re never going to have another rate hike, is because he knows the whole economy would implode.”
Simply put, if the Fed brought rates back to 4, 5, or 6% — where they historically have been — the entire house of cards would collapse.
Peter said the Fed will eventually have to raise rates because inflation will spiral out of control in the midst of a recession.
That’s stagflation.
“The Fed is going to have to raise rates to protect the dollar, to prevent high inflation from becoming runaway or hyperinflation. That is the choice the Fed is going to have to make.”
Of course, raising rates and allowing the bubble to deflate will be extremely painful.
“Every time they make the problems bigger by kicking the can down the road, there’s more political motivation to kick it again. Because the worse the problems are, the more painful is the resolution and of course, nobody wants to be blamed. Nobody wants to be the messenger that gets shot full of holes because they deliver the bad news.”
In this podcast, Peter also talks about income taxes and explains why the entire system is unconstitutional.
Gerald Celente hosts and gives his expert analysis on the current trends in the economy as well as actions Trump is taking to keep the economy strong and win 2020.
Source: InfoWars

FILE PHOTO: A container ship is shown at port in Long Beach, California, U.S. July 16, 2018. REUTERS/Mike Blake
April 17, 2019
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in the first quarter as government data showed the U.S. trade deficit hit an eight-month low in February, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Wednesday.
This was a tad quicker than the 2.3% pace for the first-quarter gross domestic product that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP program calculated on April 8.
(Reporting by Richard Leong)
Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: The logo of H&M is seen in a display window of a store in Zurich, Switzerland January 7, 2019. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
April 17, 2019
By Emma Thomasson and Anna Ringstrom
BERLIN/STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – When H&M boosted its shares last month by reporting a rise in the sale of full-price garments, it wasn’t just a tribute to the fashion sense of its designers. It was a sign that backroom improvements are at last paying off.
The world’s second-largest fashion group is investing heavily in areas like artificial intelligence and customer loyalty as it looks to improve the way it spots trends and plans logistics, and ultimately reduce discounted sales and piles of unsold stock.
Arti Zeighami, H&M’s head of advanced analytics and artificial intelligence, told Reuters the strategy is starting to bear fruit as the company extends pilot projects that seek to use data to match supply and demand more closely.
“Allocating the right goods to the right stores in the right markets is one of the key projects we are working on,” Zeighami said. “For 2019 we have huge plans for growing that and hopefully, by the end of next year, covering globally.”
In the age of social media, fashion companies have less power to drive trends, which come and go much more quickly as influencers promote their “outfit of the day” on Instagram.
That poses a particular problem for H&M, which produces most of its garments in Asia, far from its major markets, making it less responsive than its rival Zara-owner Inditex which boasts it can get new designs to its stores within a week.
Sportswear brand Adidas admitted last month it had been caught flat-footed when its suppliers failed to keep up with strong U.S. demand for its mid-priced clothing ranges.
H&M had seen stocks of unsold goods pile up over the past three years.
IMPROVEMENTS IN BUYING
In the quarter through February, inventories grew to 40 billion crowns ($4.3 bln), or 18.6 percent of sales, but H&M said they consisted of a higher share of clothes that are newer, thus less likely to be sold at marked-down prices.
It has said this is a sign its overhaul is working, and it expects a better offering and improvements in buying and logistics to help it reduce inventories to between 12 and 14 percent of sales by the end of 2022.
“Companies like ours once dictated fashion in a certain way. Today fashion is growing organically: you have influencers, you have communities,” Zeighami said. “It is hard sometimes to quantify. Is it orange or pineapple, tassel earrings or choker?”
Danske Bank analyst Daniel Schmidt said a small increase in gross margin and management promises of smaller markdowns for a third straight quarter suggests H&M’s profits have finally hit bottom.
“Even though stocks are high, their quality is probably better than we can see,” Schmidt said.
H&M Chief Executive Karl-Johan Persson said last month investment in AI was already helping predict trends and allocate garments to stores: “Over time, this will mean a lot of improvements.”
Companies in a range of industries are touting AI as the answer to their most pressing business problems, but many experts caution it may not live up to the hype.
Zeighami said he prefers to call it “amplified intelligence” because he wants to mine data to help humans make better decisions.
He cited the example of a maths model which showed mass market demand peaks when an influencer trend is going down. One designer he showed it to said having such data would have helped her stand up to buyers who jumped on a trend too late.
CUSTOMER LOYALTY
“She had the gut feeling, so us amplifying that would help her to take the right decision and overrule the buyers,” he said.
At rival Zara, merchandising teams use data gleaned from stores, webpages and app to adapt their designs, in addition to insights from social media, returns and reviews, with the entire stock gradually refreshed every four to five weeks.
Unlike Zara, H&M also has a fast-growing customer loyalty scheme from which it is harvesting information, in addition to analyzing data from social media.
The club, which doubled membership to 30 million in 2018, is in 16 of the H&M brand’s 71 markets and will add seven more including the United States by the end of the year.
Samuel Holst, head of the H&M Club, said another eight markets would be added in 2020 and he expected to keep up the membership growth rate.
Holst hopes new functions such as members gaining bonus points for reviewing garments and, later this year, for sustainable actions such as recycling clothes, will help H&M understand shoppers.
“Knowing our customers – having this insight, knowing where, how and when they shop, knowing what they like – that is an important piece in how we will be able to predict trends,” Holst told Reuters.
“The better we know the customer the better we can do this,” Holst said. “That is the foundation for being able to have very good inventories with a healthy rotation of the garments.”
(Additional reporting by Sonya Dowsett in Madrid; Editing by David Holmes)
Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., January 29, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
April 17, 2019
By Jennifer Ablan
(Reuters) – The major drivers of high U.S. corporate profit margins are unsustainable and “now under threat”, which will eventually result in much lower equity prices, Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, said on Wednesday in a report.
“Over the last two decades, U.S. corporate profit margins have surged and have contributed more than half of the excess return of equities relative to cash,” said Bridgewater, which oversees more than $160 billion in assets.
“Without that consistent expansion of margins, U.S. equities would be 40% lower than they are today.”
Over the last few decades, almost every major driver of profit margins has improved, Bridgewater said.
“Labor’s bargaining power fell, corporate taxes fell, tariffs fell, globalization increased, technology allowed for greater scale and lower marginal costs, anti-trust enforcement fell, and interest rates fell. These factors have produced the most pro corporate environment in history. Many of these drivers of high profit margins are now under threat.”
“Some of the forces that supported margins over the last 20 years are unlikely to provide a continued boost,” Bridgewater said. “Incentives for offshore production have been reduced as global labor costs have moved closer to equilibrium, with domestic costs and rising trade conflict increasing the risk of offshoring, while the potential tax rate arbitrage from moving abroad is now much smaller.”
At the same time, popular sentiment has begun to turn against the forces driving corporate profits, as well as against the companies that have benefited most, Bridgewater said.
“We are in the midst of a populist backlash against rising inequality and increasingly seeing a move toward more protectionism,” it said in the report. “Recent surveys show increasing animosity toward globalization and the power of companies more broadly and a bit more welcoming attitudes toward government regulation of firms.”
There is also more discussion about taxing mega-profitable firms that have benefited from current government policies, it said.
For example, Europe’s potential “digital services tax” is explicitly designed to close the tax arbitrage by introducing a sales tax on online revenues from residents.
“While the current impact of these proposed rules on the overall profitability of these tech giants is relatively small, they are a straw in the wind that the tide might be turning and that the multi-decade boost from favorable taxation policies is unlikely to be repeated,” Bridgewater said.
(Reporting by Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)
Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: A scrap dealer dismantles a winding machine at a weaving factory, that was shut a year ago, in Panipat in the northern state of Haryana, India, August 29, 2018. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
April 17, 2019
By Manoj Kumar
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – At least five million Indians lost their jobs between 2016 and 2018, and young urban men are being hit hardest, a Bengaluru-based private university said in a report on Tuesday.
The report by the Azim Premji University comes as Indians are voting in a staggered general election, which is due to end on May 19, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government keen to defend its economic record, including on jobs.
“In addition to rising open unemployment among the higher educated, the less educated (and likely informal) workers have also seen job losses and reduced work opportunities since 2016,” said Amit Basole, an economist and lead author of the report.
The report did not say how many jobs were created during the period.
Modi’s abrupt withdrawal of high value currency notes from circulation in November 2016, with the aim of curbing tax evasion and promoting digital transactions, disrupted small businesses and sparked layoffs.
The introduction of a national sales tax the following year compounded difficulties for some businesses.
The unemployed were mostly higher educated and young people, in the 20-24 age range, according to the study titled “State of Working India 2019”.
“Among urban men, for example, this age group accounts for 13.5 percent of the working age population but 60 percent of the unemployed,” it said.
Modi has faced criticism for not doing enough to create jobs for millions of unemployed young people despite official annual economic growth of about 7 percent for the past five years.
An official survey that the government withheld showed unemployment rose to its highest level in at least 45 years in 2017/18, the Business Standard newspaper reported in February.
The unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent in February 2019, its highest since September 2016, and up from 5.9 percent in February 2018, according to data compiled by the private research house, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
The report suggested the next government should consider an urban employment guarantee scheme to create jobs, build infrastructure and provide services.
India has a rural jobs guarantee program, launched in 2006, which offers work to about 70 million rural people at the minimum wage for 100 days a year.
“India is at a crucial juncture in its economic development where timely public investment and public policy can reap huge rewards,” Basole said.
(Reporting by Manoj Kumar; Editing by Martin Howell)
Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: A container ship is shown at port in Long Beach, California, U.S. July 16, 2018. REUTERS/Mike Blake
April 17, 2019
WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit fell to an eight-month low in February as exports to China surged, helping to eclipse a rebound in overall imports, which could boost economic growth estimates for the first quarter.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday the trade deficit dropped 3.4 percent to $49.4 billion, the lowest level since June 2018. January’s trade gap was unrevised at $51.1 billion.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade shortfall would widen to $53.5 billion in February. The goods trade deficit declined 1.7 percent to $72.0 billion, also the lowest level since last June.
The trade data have been volatile in recent months amid big swings between exports and imports because of the United States’ conflicts with trading partners, including China.
Washington last year imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods imported from China, with Beijing retaliating with duties on $110 billion worth of American products. U.S. President Donald Trump has delayed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and talks to end the trade impasse continue.
The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China – a focus of Trump’s “America First” agenda – decreased 28.2 percent to $24.8 billion in February as imports from the world’s No. 2 economy tumbled 20.2 percent. Exports to China jumped 18.2 percent in February.
When adjusted for inflation, the overall goods trade deficit fell $1.8 billion to $81.8 billion in February. The average goods trade deficit for January and February is below the fourth-quarter average. This suggests that trade could provide a boost to gross domestic product in the first quarter after being neutral in the October-December period.
Growth estimates for the January-March quarter are in a 1.5 percent to 2.3 percent annualized range, largely reflecting an accumulation of inventories amid slowing domestic demand. The economy grew at a 2.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from the July-September period’s brisk 3.4 percent pace.
The trade deficit in February was pushed down by a 1.1 percent jump in exports to $209.7 billion. Exports of services were the highest on record.
Goods exports increased 1.5 percent to $139.5 billion in February. The surge in goods exports is a hopeful sign for global economic growth, which has showed signs of slowing in recent months.
Exports of motor vehicles and parts increased by $0.6 billion in February. Shipments of civilian aircraft soared by $2.2 billion in February. But commercial aircraft exports are likely to decline in the months ahead following Boeing’s decision to suspend deliveries of its troubled 737 MAX aircraft.
The MAX planes have been grounded indefinitely following two deadly crashes.
In February, imports rose 0.2 percent to $259.1 billion. Consumer goods imports increased by $1.6 billion in February, led by a $2.1 billion rise in imports of cellphones and other household goods. Imports of industrial supplies and materials fell by $1.2 billion.
Crude oil imports fell to 173.7 million barrels, the lowest since March 1992, from 223.1 million barrels in January. An increase in domestic production has seen the United States become less dependent on foreign oil. Imported oil prices averaged $46.89 per barrel in February, up from $42.59 in January.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani Editing by Paul Simao)
Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: A shrine dedicated to children lost at the site of the Tuam babies graveyard where the remains of 796 babies were uncovered at a former Catholic home in Tuam, Ireland, September 29, 2018. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo
April 17, 2019
By Padraic Halpin
DUBLIN (Reuters) – Ireland pleaded with religious orders on Wednesday to reveal where decades-old remains of all babies who died in their care are buried, after an official inquiry found they provided remarkably little evidence about their deaths.
Findings by the inquiry two years ago that remains ranging in age from 35 foetal weeks to 3 years were stored in underground chambers at a former church-run home for unwed mothers revived anguish over how women and children were once treated at state-backed Roman Catholic institutions.
Investigators confirmed on Wednesday that 802 children died at the home in the western town of Tuam between 1925 and 1961 but said some were likely buried elsewhere on the site.
They expressed surprise at the lack of knowledge about the burials from the local council and the nuns from the Bon Secours order who ran the home.
Their latest interim report also found that over 3,000 children died in five other institutions over a similar time period. In one case investigators could only establish where 64 of the 900 children recorded to have died at the County Cork home of Bessborough were buried, despite extensive searches.
“My plea this morning, especially to the relevant people who may be out there: Let us know where they are buried,” Children’s Minister Katherine Zappone told a news conference.
“Please come forward. Tell the truth. Let us acknowledge them with that truth, that they lived and died and then maybe they could be treated with dignity in death. This is my hope as the minister for christen in Ireland.”
The infant mortality rate at Church-run institutions was significantly higher than in wider Irish society at that time, with death certificates blaming mainly infections like measles, gastroenteritis, bronchitis, tuberculosis and pneumonia.
Relatives have alleged that the babies were mistreated because they were born to unmarried women.
As part of the inquiry, nuns from the Sacred Hearts of Jesus and Mary order who ran the Bessborough institution provided affidavits and oral evidence but gave “remarkably little evidence about the burial arrangements”, the report found.
One member of the order who was in Bessborough for most of the 1948-1998 period told the Commission that she did not remember any child deaths during her time there.
The Catholic Church’s once powerful position and prestige in Ireland have been greatly diminished over the past three decades by a series of scandals over pedophile priests, abuse at Magdalene laundries (workhouses), forced adoptions of illegitimate babies and other painful issues.
The commission is due to submit its final findings by February 2020.
“I did not think in assuming the children’s ministry (that) I would be spending so much time talking about death,” Zappone said.
(Reporting by Padraic Halpin; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., April 9, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
April 17, 2019
By Amy Caren Daniel
(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Wednesday, buoyed by upbeat economic data from China, but gains were capped by disappointing quarterly reports from Netflix and IBM.
China’s economy grew at a steady 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter, defying expectations for a further slowdown, as industrial production jumped sharply and consumer demand showed signs of improvement.
The data, along with semiconductor equipment maker ASML forecasting faster growth due to demand from China, pushed U.S. chipmakers higher in premarket trading.
Intel Corp, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia Corp gained between 0.5% and 3.6%.
Qualcomm Inc jumped 5.2% after the company won a major victory in its legal dispute with Apple Inc that called for the iPhone to once again use Qualcomm modem chips.
Netflix Inc fell 1.1% after the video streaming service provider’s weak forecast unnerved investors just as Hollywood’s streaming video wars were set to intensify.
International Business Machines Corp declined 3.5% after reporting a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly revenue.
At 6:46 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 28 points, or 0.11%. S&P 500 e-minis were up 5 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 21 points, or 0.27%.
With earnings season in full swing, analysts now expect first-quarter S&P 500 profits to have dropped 1.8% year-on-year, according to Refinitiv data. While a solid improvement over recent estimates, it would still mark the first earnings contraction since 2016.
Of the 42 S&P 500 companies that have posted so far, 81% have beaten consensus, compared with the 65% average beat rate going back to 1994.
PepsiCo Inc rose 2.1% after quarterly results beat Wall Street estimates on higher demand for its snacks, low-sugar sodas.
On the economic front, a Commerce Department report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show U.S. trade deficit widening to $53.5 billion in February. The Federal Reserve issues its so-called Beige Book at 2 p.m. ET, a compendium of anecdotes on the health of the economy, drawn from the central bank’s sources across the nation.
(Reporting by Amy Caren Daniel and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)
Source: OANN

FILE PHOTO: The euro sign is photographed in front of the former head quarter of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, April 9, 2019. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach
April 17, 2019
BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Euro zone inflation slowed in March and the core figure dipped, the European Union’s statistics office said on Wednesday, confirming its initial estimates and providing an uncomfortable signal for the European Central Bank (ECB).
Eurostat said prices in the 19-nation currency bloc rose 1.4 percent in March on the year, from a 1.5 percent increase a month earlier, confirming the previous reading.
The ECB targets an inflation rate below, but close to 2.0 percent, and last week raised the prospect of more support for the euro zone in the face of an economic slowdown.
On the month, inflation accelerated to 1.0 percent, as markets had expected, from 0.3 percent in February.
The core indicator watched closely by the ECB for its monetary policy decisions, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, dropped to 1.0 percent in March on the year from 1.2 percent in February. That was the weakest reading since April 2018, Eurostat data showed, confirming earlier estimates.
This can add to the pressure on the ECB as it battles an economic slowdown which threatens to undo years of stimulus, while many of its own rate-setters think the bank’s economic projections are too optimistic.
A narrower inflation indicator that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was also confirmed dipping to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent a month earlier.
Inflation was held back by a slowdown in price rises of food, alcohol and tobacco, which rose 1.8 percent on the year in March after a 2.3 percent rise in February.
Inflation in the services sector, the largest in the euro zone economy, also slowed to 1.1 percent from 1.4 percent in February.
Energy prices were the only major component of the index that accelerated in March, to a rise of 5.3 percent year-on-year from 3.6 percent in February.
(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio; editing by Philip Blenkinsop)
Source: OANN

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