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FILE PHOTO: The World Trade Organization (WTO) headquarters are pictured in Geneva, Switzerland, July 26, 2018. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo
April 19, 2019
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s Commerce Ministry said on Friday that it regrets a ruling by a World Trade Organization panel that its administration of tariff-rate quotas for rice, wheat and corn violated its accession commitments.
A WTO dispute panel ruled on Thursday that under the terms of China’s 2001 WTO accession, Beijing’s administration of the tariff rate quotas (TRQs) violated its obligation to administer them on a “transparent, predictable and fair basis”.
(Reporting by John Ruwitch, Wang Jing and Winni Zhou; Editing by Kim Coghill)
Source: OANN
A new study determined doctors can assign a risk score that can accurately predict the body mass index, obesity risk, and overall risk of disease using genes.
The Wall Street Journal reported on the study, which was conducted at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard and whose results were published in the journal Cell.
The researchers found in the case of more than 306,000 people, a polygenic score — which factors in genetics — was able to accurately predict their body mass index, weight, and obesity status.
The process looks at several genes to assign a polygenic score, which can be used by doctors to better treat patients.
“Obesity risk from genes can now be distilled into a single number for each person,” geneticist, cardiologist, and senior author of the study Sekar Kathiresan told the Journal. “It’s like measuring somebody’s cholesterol.”
The risk score can also be used as a preventative measure, particularly with America’s obesity rate among adults approaching 40%.
“People will have knowledge about their particular risk, and that would be a foundation for actionable efforts for prevention,” Eric Topol of the Scripps Research Translational Institute told the Journal.
Obesity often leads to diabetes, which in some cases raises the risk of Parkinson’s disease, it was reported last year.
Source: NewsMax America
FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
April 18, 2019
By Caroline Valetkevitch
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The initial earnings results of this reporting period are beating expectations by a wide margin, suggesting to some investors that the S&P 500 may be able to avoid a so-called “profit recession” this year because predicted economic bad news has failed to materialize.
That is a reversal of the view from a few months ago, when the 2019 profit outlook appeared to be getting worse. Earnings already faced tough comparisons with last year, when the U.S. tax code overhaul provided a big boost.
The quarter could be the trough for “this mini down cycle,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at SunTrust Advisory Services in Atlanta. “The market is now expecting to see earnings stabilize. Eventually, if the global story gets better as we expect, earnings will help propel the market higher later this year.”
Though it is still early in the season, the aggregate profit forecast has improved from an estimated year-over-year decline of 2.5% a week ago to an expected decline of just 1.7% as of Thursday, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
The average earnings surprise so far is higher than what is typical. Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout, said based on his data, the earnings surprise factor for the 77 S&P 500 companies that have reported is 6.1%, the highest in at least three years.
The average earnings surprise for an entire earnings period since 1994 is 3.2%, based on Refinitiv’s data.
Moreover, 78% of the companies reporting have beaten estimates on earnings per share, above the amount at the same time last quarter.
The data underscores the view that S&P 500 companies will end up posting an increase in year-over-year earnings for the first quarter, and that a profit recession – defined as two straight quarters of year-over-year earnings declines – is much less likely in 2019. That, in turn, could support the argument that a long bull market in stocks could get longer still since earnings drive stock prices.
The last S&P 500 earnings recession ran from July 2015 to June of 2016.
“Numbers were slashed significantly going into this reporting period,” said Lindsey Bell, investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “I think we are going to end up seeing flat to positive growth for the quarter when it is all said and done.”
To be sure, the earnings season is just getting going, and corporate earnings face a number a headwinds: costs are rising because of tensions with U.S. trading partners, a stronger dollar diminishes the value of overseas sales, and technology companies in aggregate are looking at a likely profit decline in the first quarter.
Analysts began to cut earnings forecasts for 2019 in the fourth quarter and the market sold off as worries increased over the interest rate and economic outlook, and as the United States’ trade conflict with China seemed far from over.
But those fears have eased since then, and the S&P 500 index has risen sharply since late December.
Profit forecasts for the second quarter and beyond have steadied as well.
“We have actually seen some signs of life as companies are starting to report first-quarter earnings slightly better than expected,” BlackRock Inc’s chief equity strategist, Kate Moore, said during the asset manager’s quarterly U.S. wealth advisory event on Wednesday.
(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO – A chart is displayed behind a trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shortly after the opening bell in New York, U.S., March 26, 2019. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
April 18, 2019
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Next week will go a long way in determining whether investors should be concerned about the dawning of an earnings recession or whether back-to-back quarters of negative growth can be avoided in what is the heaviest week for profit reporting by U.S. companies.
A wide swath of S&P 500 sectors are scheduled to report next week, with 155 companies representing over $9 trillion in market capitalization in the queue, more than 35 percent of the total for the index.
Heavy hitters Facebook and Amazon are due to report as well as a dozen Dow components such as United Technologies, Coca-Cola, Microsoft and Exxon Mobil.
“The focus is going to continue to be on earnings and what the message is and so far the message hasn’t been that great,” said Ken Polcari, managing principal at Butcher Joseph Asset Management in New York.
“If they continue to be what they are, these kind of lackluster reports, the market is going to get exhausted and it is going to back off. It is going to be an important week just for direction.”
Refinitiv data shows analysts expect the first year-over-year earnings decline since 2016. As of Thursday morning, they see profits declining 1.7%.
Rapidly sliding expectations for second-quarter profit growth have sparked concerns about an earnings recession. Right now estimates are for growth of 2.1% in the second quarter, down from the 6.5% increase at the start of the year and 9.2% on Oct 1.
“That is the big question hanging over this thing, is this really an earnings recession?” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners in Pittsburgh.
Forrest said that while some companies have been able to hold the line on earnings due to their ability to control costs, investors would rather see earnings growing on consumer strength.
Refinitiv data show 77 S&P 500 companies have reported, with 77.9% topping expectations, compared to the 65% beat rate since 1994 and the 76% over the past four quarters.
But in a recent note to clients, Morgan Stanley U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson said that while companies are likely to beat “the significantly lowered bar” for the first quarter, they believe it won’t be the trough for the year.
Wilson noted with the S&P 500 now near the top of their valuation range with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8, there is not much upside remaining without a resurgence in growth that the market currently anticipates.
(Graphic: S&P forward PE ratio – https://tmsnrt.rs/2VPXmOV)
That return to growth has also been cast into doubt by the less than enthusiastic picture being painted by corporate outlooks. The current ratio of negative to positive preannouncements stands at 2.7, well above the 1.5 average over the past four quarters but in line with the long-term average dating to 1997.
And while that number is elevated over the past year, some view last year’s results as being positively affected by tax reform and at a level that is unsustainable this year.
“It is just a return to the normal, what we are used to seeing, in this quarter,” said Lindsey Bell, investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.
Should results next week push earnings season further towards an earnings recession, that may still not derail the market, which was able to recover from the last one in 2016 that was fueled in part by worries about a China slowdown.
“Even if we were to get an earnings recession, to me that is not the end of the world, because comparisons are so strong from the year before and we’ve been through earnings recessions before and recovered,” said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston.
“We came out of that once we all got comfortable with the idea China’s economy was growing once again and we are sort of in a similar situation this time around
(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Alden Bentley and Cynthia Osterman)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President, Robert Kaplan, stands on a stage at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution where he is attending an annual monetary policy conference in Stanford, California, U.S., May 4, 2018. REUTERS/Ann Saphir
April 18, 2019
(Reuters) – A top Federal Reserve policymaker on Thursday said he is “getting more confident” in U.S. economic growth this year but still thinks current interest rates are appropriate.
“I’m getting more confident about solid growth this year,” Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. He described the U.S. central bank’s current benchmark overnight lending rate of 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent as “appropriate” and “mildly accommodative.”
Several banks and analysts revised their forecasts for first-quarter U.S. growth higher on Thursday after data showed retail sales surging in March and the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits falling to the lowest level in nearly 50 years last week.
(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt in New York; Editing by Paul Simao)
Source: OANN
2018 ended on an optimistic note for retailers with strong consumer spending “data” and what was widely considered to be an unexpected comeback for many brick and mortar stores.
While that may have been fun while it lasted, the carnage and pressure on the retail sector has once again been ramped backed up, resulting in a breakneck pace for store closings to start 2019.
In a start to the year that can only be described as absolutely demoralizingfor the industry, 5,994 stores have closed in the US so far this year, which is already more than last year‘s total of 5,864, according to Real Deal and WSJ. And retail sales have begun falling again recently, down 0.2% in February from a month earlier, after being up 0.7% in January. Retail sales fell 1.2% in December.
Mall vacancy rates ticked up in the first quarter to 9.3% from 9% in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Ana Lai, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings said:“I don’t think malls are out of the woods yet.”
S&P still has a negative outlook on the United States retail sector overall and predicts that roughly 12 of the 136 retailers that it rates will wind up defaulting this year. This is an astonishing four times the average annual rate.
And as retailers continue to struggle, mall owners are also facing financial difficulties. Some malls have even pushed back their opening dates. For instance, the opening of the American Dream retail and entertainment center in the Meadowlands in New Jersey, which was originally supposed to open in the spring, has already been pushed back to late summer. The Empire Outlets shopping center on Staten Island is now scheduled to open in May, after it was initially planned to open last fall.
Finally, one of the country’s largest malls, Destiny USA in Syracuse, recently saw its mortgage taken over by a special servicer. And even though the mall owner, Pyramid Management Group, says that it is trying to discuss an extension, the servicer is expecting a default from the owner in June.
A Pyramid spokesperson said:
“Destiny USA has experienced tenant closures, just as other properties across the country have on the brick and mortar front. We have and will continue to fill those spaces with new and exciting uses as we work to ensure the health, vibrancy and longevity of the center.”
Just four months into 2019, we have already seen bankruptcies or store closings from companies like Payless Shoesource, Gymboree and Charlotte Russe.
UBS has estimated that another 75,000 stores will have to close by 2026 if online retail continues to rise from its current 16% market penetration to its expected 25%.
We documented in early March when major chains such as Gap, JCPenney, Victoria’s Secret and Foot Locker all announced massive closures, totaling more than 465 stores over the course of just 48 hours. Back in February, we noted that default rates on retail junk bonds had risen to 10.2% as of December, according to Fitch Ratings, more than double the level from the same period in 2017.
Alex Jones presents a video of Lou Dobbs during his Fox program where he warns his viewers that the French investigation into what exactly started the Notre Dame fire may be covering up the very realistic possibility of arson for what he calls “political reasons.”
Source: InfoWars
FILE PHOTO: Shoppers carry bags of purchased merchandise at the King of Prussia Mall, United States’ largest retail shopping space, in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, U.S., December 8, 2018. REUTERS/Mark Makela/File Photo
April 18, 2019
(Reuters) – The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.8% annualized rate in the first quarter based on data that showed domestic retail sales grew at their strongest pace in 1-1/2 years in March, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Thursday.
This was faster than the 2.4% pace for the first-quarter gross domestic product that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP program calculated on Wednesday.
(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO: Leader of South African opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA) Mmusi Maimane speaks during the party’s election manifesto launch in Johannesburg, South Africa, February 23, 2019. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo
April 18, 2019
By Alexander Winning
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa faces escalating unrest if the governing African National Congress (ANC) party retains power in next month’s election and fails to introduce major reforms, the leader of the country’s biggest opposition party said on Thursday.
In the most hotly contested election since the end of apartheid in South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa is hoping to reverse a slide in support for the ANC, which has won every general election since Nelson Mandela swept to power in 1994.
Ramaphosa, who replaced scandal-plagued Jacob Zuma as ANC leader more than a year ago, has cast himself as a reformer but has been hampered by party infighting.
“If nothing changes radically now by the ballot box, … there will be more protests, and then who knows?” Mmusi Maimane, head of the Democratic Alliance (DA) party, told reporters when asked whether South Africa faced a violent future.
“50 percent of young people in this country can’t find work. They will act, give them the time,” Maimane added. The overall unemployment rate in Africa’s most advanced economy is around 27 percent.
Opinion polls predict the ANC will hold onto its majority in the May 8 election, but they differ over its margin of victory.
The DA, which has roots among white liberals in the apartheid era, elected Maimane as its first black leader in 2015 to widen its appeal and improved its national standing by winning control of several major cities in 2016.
But it has since become embroiled in internal disputes, and some analysts think Ramaphosa’s reformist credentials will help the ANC eat into the DA’s liberal support base.
Maimane said on Thursday that the DA had not done enough to capitalize on the failings of the ANC, whose reputation was tarnished by a series of corruption scandals under Zuma.
He criticized Ramaphosa’s track record on reform.
“Fighting corruption isn’t reforming … any government must do that,” Maimane said.
An ANC spokesman acknowledged receipt of questions from Reuters on Maimane’s comments but did not respond.
The DA opposes ANC policy proposals like changing the constitution to facilitate land expropriation without compensation. It supports selling off stakes in struggling state firms to bolster their finances, whereas conservative parts of the ANC are suspicious of any form of privatization.
The DA leader said one goal on May 8 was to bring the ANC’s vote share below 50 percent, from 62 percent at the 2014 election.
“Then we will have a grand negotiation in South Africa about political reform,” Maimane said. The DA received 22 percent of the vote in 2014.
(Reporting by Alexander Winning; Editing by Frances Kerry)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO: An aerial photo shows Boeing 737 MAX airplanes parked on the tarmac at the Boeing Factory in Renton, Washington, U.S. March 21, 2019. REUTERS/Lindsey Wasson
April 18, 2019
(Reuters) – Honeywell International Inc on Thursday said it expects the production rate and deliveries of Boeing Co’s 737 MAX jets to resume in the second half of this year.
The 737 MAX was grounded worldwide in March following two fatal crashes, forcing Boeing to freeze deliveries.
The impact of the groundings and production rate cuts for the 737 MAX by Boeing is negligible for Honeywell in the second quarter, Chief Executive Officer Darius Adamczyk said on a conference call with analysts.
“Just about everybody expects a resolution in the second quarter. We think that’s a terrific aircraft that’s going to be back up and flying in the second half of the year,” Adamczyk said.
(Reporting by Ankit Ajmera in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
Source: OANN
FILE PHOTO: Women use PrivatBank ATM machines in Kiev, Ukraine November 9, 2018. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich/File Photo
April 18, 2019
By Polina Ivanova and Natalia Zinets
KIEV (Reuters) – Ukrainian tycoon Ihor Kolomoisky won a victory on Thursday in his battle with the government over the 2016 nationalization of PrivatBank as a court ruled the change of ownership was illegal.
Kolomoisky, who co-founded PrivatBank, has fought legal battles against the government since the Kiev authorities took over the bank, Ukraine’s largest lender, in December 2016. As he cheered the court’s decision on Thursday, the finance ministry said it would appeal the ruling.
“That means I won. I won the lawsuit,” Kolomoisky said after Reuters told him the news of the court’s decision, which was announced while Reuters was conducting a phone interview with him. “Well, excellent,” he added.
The central bank said it would also appeal the ruling and that it was impossible to reverse the nationalization.
The ruling is a blow to the government, which wrested PrivatBank from Kolomoisky in 2016 and then shored up the lender with billions of dollars. The government wants to recover money it says was siphoned out while Kolomoisky owned it. Kolomoisky denies any wrongdoing and says the bank was forcibly nationalized without proper justification.
The fate of PrivatBank has also loomed over Ukraine’s ongoing presidential election campaign.
Kolomoisky has publicly supported the candidacy of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the frontrunner to beat the incumbent President Petro Poroshenko at an election run-off this Sunday. Zelenskiy has repeatedly denied that he would endeavor to hand PrivatBank back to Kolomoisky if elected.
Thursday’s ruling could boost Kolomoisky’s chances of winning compensation or retrieving the bank.
PrivatBank was nationalized as part of an clean-up of the banking system backed by the International Monetary Fund, and the authorities have previously warned that any step to reverse the decision could derail Ukraine’s $3.9 billion loan program.
Kolomoisky played down the prospect of the central bank and finance ministry trying to appeal the decision.
“But you understand that the National Bank has no options because they, I know it for sure, did all this unlawfully,” he said. He then suggested the central bank should admit defeat and “submit a confession about how they did everything unlawfully.”
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The authorities have spent nearly $6 billion since the nationalization to plug a hole in PrivatBank’s balance sheet, caused by what the government says were fraudulent lending practices and money laundering.
Kolomoisky disputes that assessment of the bank’s health when it was nationalized. The case led to hundreds of lawsuits and the authorities see it as a test of their fight against corruption.
“The court ruling has yet to come into effect and will be appealed by the NBU (National Bank of Ukraine),” Viktor Hryhorchuk, head of litigation at the central bank’s Legal Department, said in a statement.
Lawsuits challenging the nationalization of PrivatBank “deal irreversible damage to Ukraine’s international image,” the central bank said in the same statement.
The IMF was not immediately available for comment. The finance ministry said it had followed the law in nationalizing PrivatBank and said making sure banks met capital requirements “is crucial for ensuring the stability of the banking system and supporting public confidence.”
President Poroshenko had warned this week that any backsliding on PrivatBank would spark a “deep crisis in relations with the IMF. With respective risks for macroeconomic stability, for the exchange rate, it may lead to a new crisis.”
Zelenskiy, a 41-year-old comedian with no prior political experience, has had to fend off accusations from Poroshenko that he is a puppet of Kolomoisky, whose TV channel airs Zelenskiy’s shows.
Zelenskiy insists his relationship with Kolomoisky is strictly professional. In an interview with Reuters in February, Zelenskiy said he would not hand back ownership of PrivatBank to Kolomoisky if he becomes president.
(Reporting by Polina Ivanova, Natalia Zinets and Pavel Polityuk; writing by Matthias Williams; Editing by Susan Fenton)
Source: OANN
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